Changing climate, changing decisions : understanding climate adaptation decision-making and the way science supports it

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2015The current pace of global mitigation efforts brings about growing concerns about climate change impacts. In turn, even in developed countries, most societies are often vulnerable to present day climate and will most likely see those vulnerabilities exacerbated by future climate trends and extremes, accentuating the need for a coherent response through adaptation efforts. Such efforts will always have to be developed in face of uncertainty. The deeply rooted uncertainties that underpin climate change adaptation as a scientific, political and societal endeavour will always be a part of adaptation decision-making processes. It is fundamental that decision-makers and scientific communities find common ground that allows to exchange the necessary knowledge on “why to adapt”, but also to develop the required frameworks, methods and tools that sustain a clearer understanding of “what to adapt” and “how to adapt” under long-term, uncertain circumstances. This thesis is about climate adaptation decisions and decision-making processes, and how science supports and equips them to handle uncertainty. The assessment and conclusions presented in this thesis reflect research that was transdisciplinary in nature and that included working close to decision-makers in their real-life contexts. The main objective of this thesis is to enrich the understanding of how adaptation decision-making takes place in those contexts and how science can better support it in dealing with associated uncertainties. Three key research questions underpin this thesis. The first deals with the issue whether transdisciplinarity in adaptation research is a fundamental condition for practical adaptation decision-making. This thesis argues that although transdisciplinarity may be a necessary condition, it is not a sufficient one to assure that “good” or “better” real-life adaptation decisions are made. Participatory, practice-oriented research is of outmost importance, but it has to be complemented by a more fundamental inquiry and concept development from disciplinary sciences and with changes in the operational and/or normative standards associated with long-lasting decisions. Transdisciplinarity has been framed as a potential solution for the gap between knowledge production and practical adaptation action. However, a more fundamental change in the way adaptation decision-making processes are framed, one that goes beyond the simple assimilation of the perceived needs of decision-makers, may be required to bridge that challenge. The second question reflects the current gap in the understanding of what climate adaptation decisions are and how they relate to existing or perceived uncertainties. Using a set of selected case-studies spanning across a wide range of sectors and different real-life decisions, this thesis reviewed and analysed how adaptation decisions are being made in practice, their knowledge requirements, and the implications that dealing with uncertainty has regarding their outcomes. In order to consider all steps of the adaptation decision-making process, interviews were conducted with both decision-makers and those involved in supporting them via science and other activities. Results demonstrate the importance of considering both dimensions and respective contexts in dealing with uncertainty. However, results also suggest that uncertainty-management is not a guarantee of action, and that the current framing of adaptation decision-making is still very much tied to a rational-linear view, both from the policy and decision-making perspective, as in the science and decision-support standpoint. This leads to a third research question that aims to identify if current adaptation decision-making frameworks are well equipped to characterise, support adaptation and enhance adaptation action under uncertainty. In the context of this thesis, a decision-making framework is a holistic set of concepts, perspectives or approaches that support the entire adaptation decisionmaking process. This thesis argues that such frameworks should necessarily include and integrate all dimensions that naturally occur in an adaptation process namely, the decision-objectives, the decision-support, the decision-making and the respective decision-outcomes. Current frameworks have been mostly framed from a research and expert perspective that follows a rational approach to decision-making under uncertainty. Under such perspective, it is assumed that by providing information and decision-support practical adaptation decisions will be made. This appears to be sufficient to deal with strategic decisions that look into improving adaptive capacity, but seems no longer fit-for-purpose when it comes to operational decisions, the type generally required to advance vulnerability-reducing actions.Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c, project Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling - CCIAM); Wageningen University and Research Centr

Are European decision-makers preparing for high-end climate change?

Despite the Paris Agreement target of holding global temperature increases 1.5 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios going beyond 4 °C are becoming increasingly plausible. HECC may imply increasing climate variability and extremes as well as the triggering of tipping points, posing further difficulties for adaptation. This paper compares the outcomes of four concurrent European case studies (EU, Hungary, Portugal, and Scotland) that explore the individual and institutional conditions, and the information used to underpin adaptation-related decision-making in the context of HECC. The focus is on (i) whether HECC scenarios are used in current adaptation-related decision-making processes; (ii) the role of uncertainty and how climate and non-climate information is used (or not) in these processes; and (iii) the information types (including socio-economic drivers) commonly used and their limitations in relation to HECC scenarios. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability or distant occurrence and do not routinely account for HECC scenarios within existing climate actions. Decision-makers also perceive non-climate drivers as at least as important, in many cases more important, than climate change alone. Whilst more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts is needed, climate change uncertainty is not a significant barrier to decision-making. Further understanding of individual and institutional challenges brought about by the ‘squeeze’ between adapting to HECC scenarios or to lower levels of temperature change (as those agreed in Paris) is essential to better contextualise the use of climate change information.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Assessing hydropower potential under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios using integrated assessment modelling

Producción CientíficaThe world is facing a global sustainability crisis affecting environmental systems and society. Addressing these issues requires a multi-dimensional approach that can integrate energy, water, and environment Systems, as well as provide scientific policy advice. In this study, an updated version of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was used, together with new data compatible with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) projections, to significantly improve the work developed before. SSP climate data (temperature, precipitation, and total radiative forcing) and socioeconomic data (population and GDP) were loaded into the IAM, together with different scenario parameters. By analyzing varying socioeconomic scenarios, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies, this study assesses their impact on primary energy demand and, consequently, their impact on hydropower potential production. Our results show diverse energy paths, strongly dependent on the future scenario. Energy demand could increase up to 160%; however, several projections foresee a decline in hydropower production to minus 46% due to both climate change and socioeconomic transformation. Our findings highlight the importance of considering a range of potential future scenarios in energy planning and policy development. The varied outcomes across the considered scenarios emphasize the need for flexibility in strategies to accommodate for uncertainties and address the challenges posed by divergent trajectories in hydropower use and renewable energy shares.Fundación Portuguesa para la Ciencia y la Tecnología (FCT) - (project UIDB/00329/2020)Unión Europea, European Union’s Horizon 2020 - (grant 821105

Framework for Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture and Forestry in Mediterranean Climate Regions

Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forestry landscapes to climate change remains challenging due to the need for integrating substantial amounts of information. This information ranges from climate scenarios, geographical site information, socio-economic data and several possible adaptation measures. Thus, there is an urgent need to have a framework that is capable of organizing adaptation strategies and measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Mediterranean climatic regions. Additionally, this framework should provide a cause effect relation with climate vulnerability to adequately support the development of adaptation planning at municipal and local (farm) level. In this context, we propose to test and evaluate a framework for climate adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sectors, based on the local causal-effect relation between adaptation strategies and measures and the level of vulnerability reduction achieved for Mediterranean areas. The framework was developed based on the combination of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) and Vulnerability frameworks and reviewed 162 practical adaptation measures, further organized into strategies, complemented by a set of efficacy indicators. The framework was tested with 70 stakeholders in six stakeholder workshops for the planning of two farms and one municipal climate adaptation study, that are now in actual implementation and monitoring. The framework is composed by a set of eight adaptation strategies in which adaptation measures are clustered and assessed using efficacy indicators. In the evaluation of the adaptation framework, 96% of stakeholders considered its content as good or very good and 89% considered the final outcomes as good or very good. Finally, the framework was also used to assess and compare the adaptation strategies and measures presented in the climate adaptation plans of the three case studies. On average, 52.2% of the adaptation measures selected by the three case studies are dedicated to Ecosystem Resilience, 30.9% to Adaptive Capacity, 9.1% to Microclimates, 7.4% to Protection, and 0.3% to Mitigation strategies. This framework was considered effective in supporting adaptation planning at farm and municipal levels and useful to assess and compare adaptation plans in the frame of vulnerability reduction. Future studies can further contribute to support adaptation planning in these sectors by using, developing and streamlining this framework to additional and different socio-ecological contextsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 °C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information

Transferability of decision-support tools

Charcoal is an important source of energy and income for millions of people in Africa. Its production often drives forest degradation and deforestation which have impacts on the local people that remain poorly understood. We present a novel methodology for analysing the contribution of woodland ecosystem services (ES) to rural well-being and poverty alleviation, which takes into account access mechanisms to ES, trade-offs between ES, and human response options. Using a participatory approach, a set of land use change scenarios were translated into a probabilistic model that integrates biophysical and social data. Our findings suggest that in highly forested areas woodland degradation does not have a critical impact on the local use of the three ES studied: charcoal, firewood and grass. Social factors show the largest impact on the quantity of charcoal produced, e.g. female-headed households experience the greatest barriers to access charcoal production. Participating in forest associations and diversifying income activities lead to greater charcoal production. Results show that charcoal production increases some aspects of well-being (e.g. household assets), but does not decrease acute multidimensional poverty. Great efforts are required to reach a charcoal production system that alleviates poverty, improves environmental sustainability, and provides a reliable charcoal supply.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Making adaptation decisions under uncertainty: Lessons from theory and practice

Adaptation practice is a novel and dynamic field. This is reflected by an as yet limited experience in how climate change uncertainties can be best dealt with in particular situations. This chapter synthesises the theoretical (scientific) and practical aspects of the preceding chapters, draws key lessons and provides guidance for those involved in supporting and ultimately making adaptation decisions. For this purpose a Common Frame of Reference (i.e. common definitions, principles and understandings) for dealing with uncertainties in climate adaptation decision-making is presented and applied to the analysis of the twelve real-life cases presented in this book. This framework intends to support complex climate adaptation decision-making processes that have to deal with uncertainties and still make informed decisions. Two central questions were addressed and applied to the cases reported: (i) how did the approaches used to deal with climate uncertainty influence the adaptation decision-making process and (ii) have better informed adaptation decisions been made because uncertainties were conscientiously addressed? The objective of this chapter is not to provide a simple checklist to be followed when facing uncertainties in a climate adaptation process but rather to inform and guide the reader by presenting key lessons and insights from real-life cases where decision-makers and those that support them have already faced and responded to climate adaptation related uncertainty.</p

Showcasing practitioners’ experiences

This chapter describes 12 real-life cases showing how policy-makers, decision-makers and researchers from different countries have struggled together to deal with uncertain information in adaptation decision-making. The case studies cover a wide range of sectors and themes, including water management, infrastructure, disaster risk reduction, health, forestry, agriculture, health and nature conservation and development. Each experience highlights the different types of uncertainties addressed, justifies the selected methods that were used to deal with these uncertainties and how it affected the decision taken. The cases discuss both classical types of risk analysis as well as novel approaches such as seeking robust adaptation strategies. They all show the importance of involving stakeholders to deal with uncertainty in adaption decision making.</p

Foresight workshop summary: The future of Europe depends on how it manages the risks of climate extremes : Foresight: December 2018 Workshop summary

This report is partly based on the The future of Europe and the future of climate action: reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by Jonathan Gaventa and Manon Dufour, E3G; Martin Nesbit and Kamila Paquel, IEEP and Radostina Primova, HBS EU and mostly on the PLACARD Foresight workshop: facing the future of Europe’s climate – EU governance and climate risks at a crossroads One of the working streams of PLACARD is to promote foresight. Foresight is a method to try out a set of forward-looking approaches that help decision-makers explore and anticipate what might happen. This allows decision-makers to prepare for a range of possible futures, and influence and shape those futures

The rise of demand-driven climate services

With the concept of climate services rapidly climbing research and research-funding agendas worldwide, the time is ripe for a debate about the objectives, scope and content of such services