FLEXINVERT: An atmospheric Bayesian inversion framework for determining surface fluxes of trace species using an optimized grid

We present a new modular Bayesian inversion framework, called FLEXINVERT, for estimating the surface fluxes of atmospheric trace species. FLEXINVERT can be applied to determine the spatio-temporal flux distribution of any species for which the atmospheric loss (if any) can be described as a linear process and can be used on continental to regional and even local scales with little or no modification. The relationship between changes in atmospheric mixing ratios and fluxes (the so-called source–receptor relationship) is described by a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) run in a backwards-in-time mode. In this study, we use FLEXPART but any LPDM could be used. The framework determines the fluxes on a nested grid of variable resolution, which is optimized based on the source–receptor relationships for the given observation network. Background mixing ratios are determined by coupling FLEXPART to the output of a global Eulerian model (or alternatively, from the observations themselves) and are also optionally optimized in the inversion. Spatial and temporal error correlations in the fluxes are taken into account using a simple model of exponential decay with space and time and, additionally, the aggregation error from the variable grid is accounted for. To demonstrate the use of FLEXINVERT, we present one case study in which methane fluxes are estimated in Europe in 2011 and compare the results to those of an independent inversion ensemble

Enquiring About Tolerance (EAT) study: Feasibility of an early allergenic food introduction regimen.

BACKGROUND: The influence of early exposure to allergenic foods on the subsequent development of food allergy remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the feasibility of the early introduction of multiple allergenic foods to exclusively breast-fed infants from 3 months of age and the effect on breastfeeding performance. METHODS: We performed a randomized controlled trial. The early introduction group (EIG) continued breastfeeding with sequential introduction of 6 allergenic foods: cow's milk, peanut, hard-boiled hen's egg, sesame, whitefish (cod), and wheat; the standard introduction group followed the UK infant feeding recommendations of exclusive breastfeeding for around 6 months with no introduction of allergenic foods before 6 months of age. RESULTS: One thousand three hundred three infants were enrolled. By 5 months of age, the median frequency of consumption of all 6 foods was 2 to 3 times per week for every food in the EIG and no consumption for every food in the standard introduction group (P < .001 for every comparison). By 6 months of age, nonintroduction of the allergenic foods in the EIG was less than 5% for each of the 6 foods. Achievement of the stringent per-protocol consumption target for the EIG proved more difficult (42% of evaluable EIG participants). Breastfeeding rates in both groups significantly exceeded UK government data for equivalent mothers (P < .001 at 6 and at 9 months of age). CONCLUSION: Early introduction, before 6 months of age, of at least some amount of multiple allergenic foods appears achievable and did not affect breastfeeding. This has important implications for the evaluation of food allergy prevention strategies

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Genome-wide association identifies nine common variants associated with fasting proinsulin levels and provides new insights into the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Proinsulin is a precursor of mature insulin and C-peptide. Higher circulating proinsulin levels are associated with impaired β-cell function, raised glucose levels, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of the insulin processing pathway could provide new insights about T2D pathophysiology. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We have conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association tests of ∼2.5 million genotyped or imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and fasting proinsulin levels in 10,701 nondiabetic adults of European ancestry, with follow-up of 23 loci in up to 16,378 individuals, using additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, fasting insulin, and study-specific covariates. RESULTS: Nine SNPs at eight loci were associated with proinsulin levels (P < 5 × 10(-8)). Two loci (LARP6 and SGSM2) have not been previously related to metabolic traits, one (MADD) has been associated with fasting glucose, one (PCSK1) has been implicated in obesity, and four (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, VPS13C/C2CD4A/B, and ARAP1, formerly CENTD2) increase T2D risk. The proinsulin-raising allele of ARAP1 was associated with a lower fasting glucose (P = 1.7 × 10(-4)), improved β-cell function (P = 1.1 × 10(-5)), and lower risk of T2D (odds ratio 0.88; P = 7.8 × 10(-6)). Notably, PCSK1 encodes the protein prohormone convertase 1/3, the first enzyme in the insulin processing pathway. A genotype score composed of the nine proinsulin-raising alleles was not associated with coronary disease in two large case-control datasets. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified nine genetic variants associated with fasting proinsulin. Our findings illuminate the biology underlying glucose homeostasis and T2D development in humans and argue against a direct role of proinsulin in coronary artery disease pathogenesis

Top-down estimates of black carbon emissions at high latitudes using an atmospheric transport model and a Bayesian inversion framework

This paper presents the results of BC inversions at high northern latitudes (>50°N) for the 2013–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was performed to select the best representative species for BC and the best a priori emission dataset. The same model ensemble was used to assess the uncertainty of the a posteriori emissions of BC due to scavenging and removal and due to the use of different a priori emission inventory. A posteriori concentrations of BC simulated over Arctic regions were compared with independent observations from flight and ship campaigns showing, in all cases, smaller bias, which in turn witnesses the success of the inversion. The annual a posteriori emissions of BC at latitudes above 50°N were estimated as 560±171ktyr−1, significantly smaller than in ECLIPSEv5 (745ktyr−1), which was used and the a priori information in the inversions of BC. The average relative uncertainty of the inversions was estimated to be 30%. A posteriori emissions of BC in North America are driven by anthropogenic sources, while biomass burning appeared to be less significant as it is also confirmed by satellite products. In northern Europe, a posteriori emissions were estimated to be half compared to the a priori ones, with the highest releases to be in megacities and due to biomass burning in eastern Europe. The largest emissions of BC in Siberia were calculated along the transect between Yekaterinsburg and Chelyabinsk. The optimised emissions of BC were high close to the gas flaring regions in Russia and in western Canada (Alberta), where numerous power and oil and gas production industries operate. Flaring emissions in Nenets–Komi oblast (Russia) were estimated to be much lower than in the a priori emissions, while in Khanty-Mansiysk (Russia) they remained the same after the inversions of BC. Increased emissions at the borders between Russia and Mongolia are probably due to biomass burning in villages along the Trans-Siberian Railway. The maximum BC emissions in high northern latitudes (>50°N) were calculated for summer months due to biomass burning and they are controlled by seasonal variations in Europe and Asia, while North America showed a much smaller variability

Top-down estimates of black carbon emissions at high latitudes using an atmospheric transport model and a Bayesian inversion framework

This paper presents the results of BC inversions at high northern latitudes (>50°N) for the 2013–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was performed to select the best representative species for BC and the best a priori emission dataset. The same model ensemble was used to assess the uncertainty of the a posteriori emissions of BC due to scavenging and removal and due to the use of different a priori emission inventory. A posteriori concentrations of BC simulated over Arctic regions were compared with independent observations from flight and ship campaigns showing, in all cases, smaller bias, which in turn witnesses the success of the inversion. The annual a posteriori emissions of BC at latitudes above 50°N were estimated as 560±171ktyr−1, significantly smaller than in ECLIPSEv5 (745ktyr−1), which was used and the a priori information in the inversions of BC. The average relative uncertainty of the inversions was estimated to be 30%. A posteriori emissions of BC in North America are driven by anthropogenic sources, while biomass burning appeared to be less significant as it is also confirmed by satellite products. In northern Europe, a posteriori emissions were estimated to be half compared to the a priori ones, with the highest releases to be in megacities and due to biomass burning in eastern Europe. The largest emissions of BC in Siberia were calculated along the transect between Yekaterinsburg and Chelyabinsk. The optimised emissions of BC were high close to the gas flaring regions in Russia and in western Canada (Alberta), where numerous power and oil and gas production industries operate. Flaring emissions in Nenets–Komi oblast (Russia) were estimated to be much lower than in the a priori emissions, while in Khanty-Mansiysk (Russia) they remained the same after the inversions of BC. Increased emissions at the borders between Russia and Mongolia are probably due to biomass burning in villages along the Trans-Siberian Railway. The maximum BC emissions in high northern latitudes (>50°N) were calculated for summer months due to biomass burning and they are controlled by seasonal variations in Europe and Asia, while North America showed a much smaller variability.publishedVersio

Evaluation of traffic control measures in Oslo region and its effect on current air quality policies in Norway

Urban air pollution is a challenge in several European cities. For most Norwegian cities, the major challenge is the reduction of the NO2 annual mean concentration in order to comply with the limit value in the European Directive 2008/50/EC, but also too many high NO2 hourly values occur during strong inversions in cold winter periods. In Oslo, the main contributor to NO2 concentration levels is diesel exhaust and hence the proposed measures in this study are targeting road traffic. An extensive array of individual and grouped measures were constructed and we studied the change in traffic and NO2 concentrations by performing consecutive modelling studies which included traffic, emissions, and dispersion models. These measures were intended for permanent and temporary action. They included increases of the tolls that give access to the inner parts of the city, the establishment of low emission zones (LEZs), allowing for temporary free public transport, odd-even driving, defining priority lanes for low emission vehicles, and imposing higher parking fees. We concluded that the most efficient measures were the creation of LEZs and the increase of parking fees. We also explain how the findings from this work have helped to implement Norwegian air quality control policies.publishedVersio

Evaluation and Global-Scale Observation of Nitrous Oxide from IASI on Metop-A

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas difficult to estimate by satellite because of its weak spectral signature in the infra-red band and its low variability in the troposphere. Nevertheless, this study presents the evaluation of new tropospheric N2O observations from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) on Metop-A using the Toulouse N2O Retrieval Version 2.0 tool. This tool is based on the Radiative Transfer for Tiros Operational Vertical sounder (RTTOV) model version 12.3 coupled to the Levenberg-Marquardt optimal estimation method enabling the simultaneous retrieval of methane, water vapour, temperature profiles together with surface temperature and emissivity within the 1240–1350 cm−1 window. In this study, we focused on the upper troposphere (300 hPa) where the sensitivity of IASI is significant. The IASI N2O data has been evaluated using aircraft N2O observations from the High-performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) in 2011. In addition, we evaluated the IASI N2O using ground-based N2O measurements from 9 stations belonging to the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We found a total random error of ∼2 ppbv (0.6%) for one single retrieval at 300 hPa. Under favorable conditions, this error is also found in the vertical level pressure range 300–500 hPa. It decreases rapidly to ∼0.4 ppbv (0.1%) when we average on a 1° × 1° box. In addition, independent observations allows the estimation of bias with the IASI TN2OR v2.0 N2O. The bias between IASI and aircraft N2O data at 300 hPa is ∼1.0 ppbv (∼0.3%). We found an estimated random error of ∼2.3 ppbv (∼0.75%). This study also shows relatively high correlations between IASI data and aircraft in situ profiles but more varying correlations over the year 2011 depending on the location between IASI and NDACC remote sensing data. Finally, we present daily, monthly, and seasonal IASI N2O horizontal distributions in the upper troposphere as well as cross sections for different seasons that exhibit maxima in the Tropical band especially over Africa and South America