A Three-Point Cosmic Ray Anisotropy Method

The two-point angular correlation function is a traditional method used to search for deviations from expectations of isotropy. In this paper we develop and explore a statistically descriptive three-point method with the intended application being the search for deviations from isotropy in the highest energy cosmic rays. We compare the sensitivity of a two-point method and a "shape-strength" method for a variety of Monte-Carlo simulated anisotropic signals. Studies are done with anisotropic source signals diluted by an isotropic background. Type I and II errors for rejecting the hypothesis of isotropic cosmic ray arrival directions are evaluated for four different event sample sizes: 27, 40, 60 and 80 events, consistent with near term data expectations from the Pierre Auger Observatory. In all cases the ability to reject the isotropic hypothesis improves with event size and with the fraction of anisotropic signal. While ~40 event data sets should be sufficient for reliable identification of anisotropy in cases of rather extreme (highly anisotropic) data, much larger data sets are suggested for reliable identification of more subtle anisotropies. The shape-strength method consistently performs better than the two point method and can be easily adapted to an arbitrary experimental exposure on the celestial sphere.Comment: Fixed PDF erro

The European economy in 1999 and 2000: Report

World economic growth this year is likely to remain as weak as in 1998, despite a gradual acceleration in the course of the year. The volume of world trade is estimated to have fallen significantly in the latter half of last year, and to date there are few signs of a rapid recovery. However, there are indications of improved investor sentiment in a number of emerging market economies, and the monetary authorities in many industrial economies have lowered shortterm interest rates significantly since last autumn. In the absence of further financial market turmoil, a modest global recovery is expected to develop this year, led by improved prospects for the Asian economies. World GDP is expected to rise by 3 per cent in 2000, after growth of 2V4 per cent this year (Table 1). The industrial economies as a group are not expected to contribute significantly to the overall rebound. The economy of the United States has remained much stronger than expected, but could experience a soft landing next year, particularly if the Federal Reserve decides to tighten monetary policy. Activity in Japan may at best stabilise next year after two years of declining GDP, with many firms continuing to have excess capacity, and domestic demand expected to remain weak. The continuing weakness of Japan will help to keep the upturn in the emerging markets within bounds. Growth should pick up in Western Europe over the next eighteen months, helped by the present relaxed monetary conditions. However, a recovery this year remains far from assured, with activity likely to be particularly weak in Germany and Italy. The present, historically low, rate of inflation in the industrial world may rise slightly, partly as a result of some recovery in world prices for primary commodities, recently in particular for oil. In the euro area, import prices will also rise as a result of the recent depreciation of the euro against the dollar. The continued strength of the dollar can be partly attributed to the very strong performance of the American economy compared with the European economy, and to the rising interest rate differentials with Europe. We expect that developments in the opposite direction will weaken the dollar again. Section VI of this report illustrates a scenario with a more substantial weakening in the aftermath of a collapse in equity prices. The Western European economy has been strongly affected by the adverse developments in the crisis regions. This has depressed industrial production significantly over the past year. The prospects for Europe are heavily dependent on the timing and extent to which these effects fade away. The American economy has been a strong engine for world economic growth up to now, but there are several imbalances that may lead to a slowdown over the next eighteen months. This could have a substantial impact on the European economy. --

The European economy in 1998 and 1999

World economic activity remains relatively robust, although the Asian crisis casts a shadow over the picture. The rate of growth of world trade has slowed down since last fall, but is expected to remain above its trend level. International price developments remain quite moderate. Oil prices have declined substantially, and are among the lowest of the decade. Inflationary pressures are also limited in the industrial countries, as capacity constraints are not yet significant there and excess supply has materialized worldwide. The industrial countries show a sustained growth rate between 2Vi and 3 per cent on average. However, the combination of strong growth and low inflation is the result of divergent developments between countries. • The US economy has been until recently particularly buoyant, as strong domestic demand has more than offset the dampening effect of falling exports to Asia. The Japanese economy remains in the doldrums. The threat of a deflation has recently prompted a substantial stimulation programme aiming at preventing a further deterioration of confidence. \^ Economic growth in Asia has been-severely_ restricted, in particular in the ASEAN countries and Korea, although extensive rescue operations have brought the situation in the worst hit countries more or less under control. The impact on the European countries is as yet rather limited, as negative trade effects are largely compensated for by beneficial effects of lower imported inflation and lower interest rates. Thus Western Europe is in a position to sustain the recovery that began in mid-1996. Prospects have been strengthened as uncertainties associated with the implementation of the EMU have now been dissipated. The time has now come to begin to view the EMU countries as a single entity from the viewpoint of economic management, even if differences persist in many fields. --

The European economy in 1998 and 1999: An update

A. Situation and Prospects for the European Economy 3 I. Slower Growth of the World Economy 3 II. Weaker Expansion of the European Economy 5 III. Economic Policy 7 B. Country Reports 9 I. Germany: Upturn Continues Despite Financial Turbulence 9 II. Confidence Still High in France, Though Off Its Peak 9 III. Downturn in the UK Economy 10 IV. Italy: A Fragile Recovery 11 --

Interspinous process device versus standard conventional surgical decompression for lumbar spinal stenosis: Randomized controlled trial

Abstract Objective To assess whether interspinous process device implantation is more effective in the short term than conventional surgical decompression for patients with intermittent neurogenic claudication due to lumbar spinal stenosis. Design Randomized controlled trial. Setting Five neurosurgical centers (including one academic and four secondary level care centers) in the Netherlands. Participants 203 participants were referred to the Leiden-The Hague Spine Prognostic Study Group between October 2008 and September 2011; 159 participants with intermittent neurogenic claudication due to lumbar spinal stenosis at one or two levels with an indication for surgery were randomized. Interventions 80 participants received an interspinous process device and 79 participants underwent spinal bony decompression. Main outcome measures The primary outcome at short term (eight weeks) and long term (one year) follow-up was the Zurich Claudication Questionnaire score. Repeated measurements were made to compare outcomes over time. Results At eight weeks, the success rate according to the Zurich Claudication Questionnaire for the interspinous process device group (63%, 95% confidence interval 51% to 73%) was not superior to that for

Operations of and Future Plans for the Pierre Auger Observatory

Technical reports on operations and features of the Pierre Auger Observatory, including ongoing and planned enhancements and the status of the future northern hemisphere portion of the Observatory. Contributions to the 31st International Cosmic Ray Conference, Lodz, Poland, July 2009.Comment: Contributions to the 31st ICRC, Lodz, Poland, July 200

The Pierre Auger Observatory III: Other Astrophysical Observations

Astrophysical observations of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays with the Pierre Auger ObservatoryComment: Contributions to the 32nd International Cosmic Ray Conference, Beijing, China, August 201

Multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification versus karyotyping in prenatal diagnosis: the M.A.K.E. study

Abstract BACKGROUND: In the past 30 years karyotyping was the gold standard for prenatal diagnosis of chromosomal aberrations in the fetus. Traditional karyotyping (TKT) has a high accuracy and reliability. However, it is labor intensive, the results take 14-21 days, the costs are high and unwanted findings such as abnormalities with unknown clinical relevance are not uncommon. These disadvantages challenged the practice of karyotyping. Multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) is a new molecular genetic technique in prenatal diagnosis. Previous preclinical evidence suggests equivalence of MLPA and traditional karyotyping (TKT) regarding test performance. METHODS/DESIGN: The proposed study is a multicentre diagnostic substitute study among pregnant women, who choose to have amniocentesis for the indication advanced maternal age and/or increased risk following prenatal screening test. In all subjects, both MLPA and karyotyping will be performed on the amniotic fluid sample. The primary outcome is diagnostic accuracy. Secondary outcomes will be maternal quality of life, women's preferences and costs. Analysis will be intention to treat and per protocol analysis. Quality of life analysis will be carried out within the study population. The study aims to include 4500 women. DISCUSSION: The study results are expected to help decide whether MLPA can replace traditional karyotyping for 'low-risk' pregnancies in terms of diagnostic accuracy, quality of life and women's preferences. This will be the first clinical study to report on all relevant aspects of the potential replacement

The QICKD study protocol: a cluster randomised trial to compare quality improvement interventions to lower systolic BP in chronic kidney disease (CKD) in primary care

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a relatively newly recognised but common long-term condition affecting 5 to 10% of the population. Effective management of CKD, with emphasis on strict blood pressure (BP) control, reduces cardiovascular risk and slows the progression of CKD. There is currently an unprecedented rise in referral to specialist renal services, which are often located in tertiary centres, inconvenient for patients, and wasteful of resources. National and international CKD guidelines include quality targets for primary care. However, there have been no rigorous evaluations of strategies to implement these guidelines. This study aims to test whether quality improvement interventions improve primary care management of elevated BP in CKD, reduce cardiovascular risk, and slow renal disease progression DESIGN: Cluster randomised controlled trial (CRT) METHODS: This three-armed CRT compares two well-established quality improvement interventions with usual practice. The two interventions comprise: provision of clinical practice guidelines with prompts and audit-based education. The study population will be all individuals with CKD from general practices in eight localities across England. Randomisation will take place at the level of the general practices. The intended sample (three arms of 25 practices) powers the study to detect a 3 mmHg difference in systolic BP between the different quality improvement interventions. An additional 10 practices per arm will receive a questionnaire to measure any change in confidence in managing CKD. Follow up will take place over two years. Outcomes will be measured using anonymised routinely collected data extracted from practice computer systems. Our primary outcome measure will be reduction of systolic BP in people with CKD and hypertension at two years. Secondary outcomes will include biomedical outcomes and markers of quality, including practitioner confidence in managing CKD. A small group of practices (n = 4) will take part in an in-depth process evaluation. We will use time series data to examine the natural history of CKD in the community. Finally, we will conduct an economic evaluation based on a comparison of the cost effectiveness of each intervention. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ISRCTN56023731. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier