Phase I/II trial of concurrent extracranial palliative radiation therapy with Dabrafenib and Trametinib in metastatic BRAF V600E/K mutation-positive cutaneous Melanoma

Background: Concurrent treatment with BRAF inhibitors and palliative radiation therapy (RT) could be associated with increased toxicity, especially skin toxicity. Current Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) consensus guideline recommend ceasing BRAF inhibitors during RT. There is a lack of data regarding concurrent RT with combined BRAF and MEK inhibitors. This single-arm phase I/II trial was designed to assess the safety and tolerability of palliative RT with concurrent Dabrafenib and Trametinib in patients with BRAF-mutant metastatic melanoma. Materials and methods: Patients received Dabrafenib and Trametinib before and during palliative RT to soft tissue, nodal or bony metastases. The RT dose was escalated stepwise during the study period. Toxicity data including clinical photographs of the irradiated area was collected for up to 12 months following completion of RT. Results: Between June 2016 to October 2019, ten patients were enrolled before the study was stopped early due to low accrual rate. Six patients were treated at level 1 (20 Gy in 5 fractions, any location) and 4 patients at level 2a (30 Gy in 10 fractions with no abdominal viscera exposed). All alive patients completed one year of post-RT follow-up. Of the 82 adverse events (AEs) documented, the majority (90%) were grade 1 and 2. Eight grade 3 events (10%) occurred in five patients, only one was treatment-related (grade 3 fever due to Dabrafenib and Trametinib). No patients experienced grade 3 or 4 RT related toxicities, including skin toxicities. One serious AE was documented in relation to a grade 3 fever due to Dabrafenib and Trametinib requiring hospitalisation. Conclusions: The lack of grade 3 and 4 RT-related toxicities in our study suggests that Dabrafenib and Trametinib may be continued concurrently during fractionated non-visceral palliative RT to extracranial sites

A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data

Background: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Findings: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6–77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6–5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144–172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86–145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68–111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58–82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4–5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. Interpretation: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. Funding: The National Institutes of Health

Prognostic Value of a Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Heart Disease in Individuals Aged 70 Years and Older

Background: The use of a polygenic risk score (PRS) to improve risk prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events has been demonstrated to have clinical utility in the general adult population. However, the prognostic value of a PRS for CHD has not been examined specifically in older populations of individuals aged ≥70 years, who comprise a distinct high-risk subgroup. The objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of a PRS for incident CHD events in a prospective cohort of older individuals without a history of cardiovascular events. Methods: We used data from 12 792 genotyped, healthy older individuals enrolled into the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly), a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial investigating the effect of daily 100 mg aspirin on disability-free survival. Participants had no previous history of diagnosed atherothrombotic cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. We calculated a PRS (meta-genomic risk score) consisting of 1.7 million genetic variants. The primary outcome was a composite of incident myocardial infarction or CHD death over 5 years. Results: At baseline, the median population age was 73.9 years, and 54.9% were female. In total, 254 incident CHD events occurred. When the PRS was added to conventional risk factors, it was independently associated with CHD (hazard ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.08-1.42], P=0.002). The area under the curve of the conventional model was 70.53 (95% CI, 67.00-74.06), and after inclusion of the PRS increased to 71.78 (95% CI, 68.32-75.24, P=0.019), demonstrating improved prediction. Reclassification was also improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.15-0.28). Conclusion: A PRS for CHD performs well in older people and improves prediction over conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Our study provides evidence that genomic risk prediction for CHD has clinical utility in individuals aged 70 years and older. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583

Associations of body size with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in healthy older adults

In the general population, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are recognized risk factors for several chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. However, whether these associations are the same for older adults is less clear. The association of baseline BMI and waist circumference with all-cause and cause-specific mortality was investigated in 18,209 Australian and US participants (mean age: 75.1 ± 4.5 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, followed up for a median of 6.9 years (IQR: 5.7, 8.0). There were substantially different relationships observed in men and women. In men, the lowest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed with a BMI in the range 25.0–29.9 kg/m2 [HR25-29.9 vs 21–24.9 kg/m2: 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73–1.00] while the highest risk was in those who were underweight [HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.82; 95% CI 1.30–2.55], leading to a clear U-shaped relationship. In women, all-cause mortality was highest in those with the lowest BMI leading to a J-shaped relationship (HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21–24.9 kg/m2: 1.64; 95% CI 1.26–2.14). Waist circumference showed a weaker relationship with all-cause mortality in both men and women. There was little evidence of a relationship between either index of body size and subsequent cancer mortality in men or women, while non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality was higher in underweight participants. For older men, being overweight was found to be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, while among both men and women, a BMI in the underweight category was associated with a higher risk. Waist circumference alone had little association with all-cause or cause-specific mortality risk. Trial registration ASPREE https://ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01038583.Prudence R. Carr, Katherine L. Webb, Johannes T. Neumann, Le T. P. Thao, Lawrence J. Beilin, Michael E. Ernst, Bernadette Fitzgibbon, Danijela Gasevic, Mark R. Nelson, Anne B. Newman, Suzanne G. Orchard, Alice Owen, Christopher M. Reid, Nigel P. Stocks, Andrew M. Tonkin, Robyn L. Woods, John J. McNei

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

Crystal structure and vibrational spectra of hexagonal manganites YMnO3 and LuMnO3 under high pressure

The structural and vibrational properties of the multiferroics YMnO3 and LuMnO3 have been studied by means of the x-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy at high pressures up to 29.3 and 31.2 GPa, respectively. The initial hexagonal structure with space group P6(3)cm of both compounds remains unchanged in the entire pressure range. The anisotropic baric behaviors of lattice parameters and vibration modes of studied compounds were observed. The structural mechanisms of those phenomena are discussed. ©2019 IOP Publishing Ltd11sciescopu

Predictive Performance of a Polygenic Risk Score for Incident Ischemic Stroke in a Healthy Older Population

Background and Purpose: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can be used to predict ischemic stroke (IS). However, further validation of PRS performance is required in independent populations, particularly older adults in whom the majority of strokes occur. Methods: We predicted risk of incident IS events in a population of 12 792 healthy older individuals enrolled in the ASPREE trial (Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly). The PRS was calculated using 3.6 million genetic variants. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular events, dementia, or persistent physical disability at enrollment. The primary outcome was IS over 5 years, with stroke subtypes as secondary outcomes. A multivariable model including conventional risk factors was applied and reevaluated after adding PRS. Area under the curve and net reclassification were evaluated. Results: At baseline, mean population age was 75 years. In total, 173 incident IS events occurred over a median follow-up of 4.7 years. When PRS was added to the multivariable model as a continuous variable, it was independently associated with IS (hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.20-1.65] per SD of the PRS; P<0.001). The PRS alone was a better discriminator for IS events than most conventional risk factors. PRS as a categorical variable was a significant predictor in the highest tertile (hazard ratio, 1.74; P=0.004) compared with the lowest. The area under the curve of the conventional model was 66.6% (95% CI, 62.2-71.1) and after inclusion of the PRS, improved to 68.5 ([95% CI, 64.0-73.0] P=0.095). In subgroup analysis, the continuous PRS remained an independent predictor for large vessel and cardioembolic stroke subtypes but not for small vessel stroke. Reclassification was improved, as the continuous net reclassification index after adding PRS to the conventional model was 0.25 (95% CI, 0.17-0.43). Conclusions: PRS predicts incident IS in a healthy older population but only moderately improves prediction over conventional risk factors. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01038583

Effect of aspirin on activities of daily living disability in community-dwelling older adults

Background: Cerebrovascular events, dementia and cancer can contribute to physical disability with activities of daily living (ADL). It is unclear whether low-dose aspirin reduces this burden in aging populations. In a secondary analysis, we now examine aspirin's effects on incident and persistent ADL disability within a primary prevention aspirin trial in community-dwelling older adults.Methods: The ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) trial of daily 100mg aspirin versus placebo recruited 19,114 healthy adults aged 70+ years (65+ years if U.S. minority) in Australia and the U.S. Six basic ADLs were assessed every six months. Incident ADL disability was defined as inability or severe difficulty with ≥1 ADL; persistence was confirmed if the same ADL disability remained after six months. Proportional hazards modelling compared time to incident or persistent ADL disability for aspirin versus placebo; death without prior disability was a competing risk.Results: Over a median 4.7 years, incident ADL disability was similar in those receiving aspirin (776/9525) and placebo (787/9589) with walking, bathing, dressing and transferring the most commonly reported. Only 24% of incident ADL disability progressed to persistent. Persistent ADL disability was lower in the aspirin group (4.3 versus 5.3 events/1000py; HR=0.81, 95% CI:0.66-1.00), with bathing and dressing the most common ADL disabilities in both groups. Following persistent ADL disability there were more deaths in the aspirin group (24 versus 12).Discussion: Low-dose aspirin in initially healthy older people did not reduce risk of incident ADL disability, although there was evidence of reduced persistent ADL disability