Mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-years (DALYs) for common neglected tropical Diseases in Ethiopia, 1990 to 2015: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Introduction: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are important public health problems in Ethiopia. In 2013, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has launched a national NTD master plan to eliminate major NTDs of public health importance by 2020. Benchmarking the current status of NTDs in the country is important to monitor and evaluate the progress in the implementation of interventions and their impacts. Therefore, this study aims to assess the trends of mortality and Disability-adjusted Life-Years (DALY) for the priority NTDs over the last 25 years. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 estimates for this study. The GBD 2015 data source for cause of death and DALY estimation included verbal autopsy (VA), Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), malaria indicator surveys (MICS) and other disease specific surveys, Ministry of Health reports submitted to United Nations (UN) agencies and published scientific articles. Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) and/or natural history models were used to estimate malaria and NTDs mortality rates. DALY were estimated as the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and Years Lived with Disability (YLD). Results: All NTDs caused an estimated of 6,293 deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3699 – 10,080) in 1990 and 3,593 deaths (95% UI: 2051 – 6178) in 2015, a 70% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardised mortality rates due to schistosomiasis, STH and leshmaniasis have declined by 91.3%, 73.5% and 21.6% respectively between 1990 to 2015. The number of DALYs due to all NTDs has declined from 814.4 thousand (95% UI: 548 thousand–1.2 million) in 1990 to 579.5 thousand (95%UI: 309.4 thousand – 1.3 million) in 2015. Age-standardised DALY rates due to all NTDs declined by 30.4%, from 17.6 per 1000(95%UI: 12.5-26.5) in 1990 to 12.2 per 1000(95%UI: 6.5 – 27.4) in 2015. Age-standardised DALY rate for trachoma declined from 92.7 per 100,000(95% UI: 63.2 – 128.4) in 1990 to 41.2 per 100,000(95%UI: 27.4 – 59.2) in 2015, a 55.6% reduction between 1990 and 2015. Age-standardised DALY rates for onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis and lymphiatic filariasis decreased by 66.2%, 29.4% and 12.5% respectively between 1990 and 2015. DALY rate for ascariasis fell by 56.8% over the past 25 years. Conclusions: Ethiopia has made a remarkable progress in reducing the DALY rates for most of the NTDs over the last 25 years. The rapid scale of interventions and broader system strengthening may have a lasting impact on achieving the 2020 goal of elimination of most of NTDs. Ethiopia should strengthen the coverage of integrated interventions of NTD through proper coordination with other health programs and sectors and community participation to eliminate NTDs by 2020

Geospatial transmission hotspots of recent HIV infection — Malawi, October 2019–March 2020

What is already known about this topic? A novel HIV infection surveillance initiative was implemented in Malawi to collect data on recent HIV infections among new diagnoses to characterize the epidemic and guide the public health response. What is added by this report? Higher proportions of recent infections were identified among females, persons aged <30 years, and clients at maternal and child health and youth clinics. Spatial analysis identified three hotspots of health facilities with significantly higher rates of recent infection than expected across five districts. What are the implications for public health practice? Geospatial analysis of recent HIV infection surveillance data can identify potential transmission hotspots. This information could be used to tailor program activities to strengthen HIV testing, prevention, and treatment services and ultimately interrupt transmission

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

Background Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. Methods Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. Results From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. Conclusion Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors

Effect of training on the use of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets on the burden of malaria among vulnerable groups, south-west Ethiopia: baseline results of a cluster randomized trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Ethiopia, the utilization of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLITN) is hampered by behavioural factors such as low awareness and negative attitude of the community. The aim of this study was to present the design and baseline results of a cluster randomized trial on the effect of training of household heads on the use of LLITN.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This baseline survey was undertaken from February to March, 2009 as part of a randomized cluster trial. A total of 11 intervention and 11 control <it>Gots </it>(villages) were included in the Gilgel Gibe Field Research Centre, south-west Ethiopia. House to house visit was done in 4135 households to collect information about the use of LLITN and socio-demographic variables. For the diagnosis of malaria and anaemia, blood samples were collected from 2410 under-five children and 242 pregnant women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One fourth of the households in the intervention and control <it>Gots </it>had functional LLITN. Only 30% of the observed LLITN in the intervention and 28% in the control <it>Gots </it>were hanged properly. Adults were more likely to utilize LLITN than under-five children in the control and intervention <it>Gots</it>. The prevalence of malaria in under-five children in the intervention and control <it>Gots </it>was 10.5% and 8.3% respectively. The intervention and control <it>Gots </it>had no significant difference concerning the prevalence of malaria in under-five children, [OR = 1.28, (95%CI: 0.97, 1.69)]. Eight (6.1%) pregnant women in the intervention and eight (7.2%) in the control <it>Gots </it>were positive for malaria (P = 0.9). Children in the intervention <it>Gots </it>were less likely to have anaemia than children in the control <it>Gots</it>, [OR = 0.75, (95%CI: 0.62, 0.85)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The availability and utilization of LLITN was low in the study area. The prevalence of malaria and anaemia was high. Intervention strategies of malaria should focus on high risk population and vulnerable groups.</p

The effect of household heads training about the use of treated bed nets on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children: a cluster randomized trial in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets (LLITN) have demonstrated a significant effect in reducing malaria-related morbidity and mortality. However, barriers on the utilization of LLITN have hampered the desired outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of community empowerment on the burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cluster randomized trial was done in 22 (11 intervention and 11 control) villages in south-west Ethiopia. The intervention consisted of tailored training of household heads about the proper use of LLITN and community network system. The burden of malaria and anaemia in under-five children was determined through mass blood investigation at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period. Cases of malaria and anaemia were treated based on the national protocol. The burden of malaria and anaemia between the intervention and control villages was compared using the complex logistic regression model by taking into account the clustering effect. Eight Focus group discussions were conducted to complement the quantitative findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 2,105 household heads received the intervention and the prevalence of malaria and anaemia was assessed among 2410, 2037 and 2612 under-five children at baseline, six and 12 months of the project period respectively. During the high transmission/epidemic season, children in the intervention arm were less likely to have malaria as compared to children in the control arm (OR = 0.42; 95%CI: 0.32, 0.57). Symptomatic malaria also steadily declined in the intervention villages compared to the control villages in the follow up periods. Children in the intervention arm were less likely to be anaemic compared to those in the control arm both at the high (OR = 0.84; 95%CI: 0.71, 0.99)) and low (OR = 0.73; 95%CI: 0.60, 0.89) transmission seasons.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Training of household heads on the utilization of LLITN significantly reduces the burden of malaria in under-five children. The Ministry of Health of Ethiopia in collaboration with other partners should design similar strategies in high-risk areas to control malaria in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR): <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12610000035022.aspx">ACTRN12610000035022</a></p

Burden of disease attributable to suboptimal diet, metabolic risks, and low physical activity in Ethiopia and comparison with Eastern sub-Saharan African countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: Twelve of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are related to malnutrition (both under- and overnutrition), other behavioral, and metabolic risk factors. However, comparative evidence on the impact of behavioral and metabolic risk factors on disease burden is limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including Ethiopia. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we assessed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to child and maternal undernutrition (CMU), dietary risks, metabolic risks and low physical activity for Ethiopia. The results were compared with 14 other Eastern SSA countries. Methods: Databases from GBD 2015, that consist of data from 1990 to 2015, were used. A comparative risk assessment approach was utilized to estimate the burden of disease attributable to CMU, dietary risks, metabolic risks and low physical activity. Exposure levels of the risk factors were estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) and Bayesian meta-regression models. Results: In 2015, there were 58,783 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 43,653-76,020] or 8.9% [95% UI: 6.1-12.5] estimated all-cause deaths attributable to CMU, 66,269 [95% UI: 39,367-106,512] or 9.7% [95% UI: 7.4-12.3] to dietary risks, 105,057 [95% UI: 66,167-157,071] or 15.4% [95% UI: 12.8-17.6] to metabolic risks and 5808 [95% UI: 3449-9359] or 0.9% [95% UI: 0.6-1.1]to low physical activity in Ethiopia. While the age-adjusted proportion of all-cause mortality attributable to CMU decreased significantly between 1990 and 2015, it increased from 10.8% [95% UI: 8.8-13.3] to 14.5% [95% UI: 11.7-18.0] for dietary risks and from 17.0% [95% UI: 15.4-18.7] to 24.2% [95% UI: 22.2-26.1] for metabolic risks. In 2015, Ethiopia ranked among the top four countries (of 15 Eastern SSA countries) in terms of mortality and DALYs based on the age-standardized proportion of disease attributable to dietary risks and metabolic risks. Conclusions: In Ethiopia, while there was a decline in mortality and DALYs attributable to CMU over the last two and half decades, the burden attributable to dietary and metabolic risks have increased during the same period. Lifestyle and metabolic risks of NCDs require more attention by the primary health care system of in the country

Risk factors for default from tuberculosis treatment in HIV-infected individuals in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Concomitant treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and tuberculosis (TB) presents a series of challenges for treatment compliance for both providers and patients. We carried out this study to identify risk factors for default from TB treatment in people living with HIV. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study to monitor HIV/TB co-infected subjects in Pernambuco, Brazil, on a monthly basis, until completion or default of treatment for TB. Logistic regression was used to calculate crude and adjusted odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals and P-values. RESULTS: From a cohort of 2310 HIV subjects, 390 individuals (16.9%) who had started treatment after a diagnosis of TB were selected, and data on 273 individuals who completed or defaulted on treatment for TB were analyzed. The default rate was 21.7% and the following risk factors were identified: male gender, smoking and CD4 T-cell count less than 200 cells/mm3. Age over 29 years, complete or incomplete secondary or university education and the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) were identified as protective factors for the outcome. CONCLUSION: The results point to the need for more specific actions, aiming to reduce the default from TB treatment in males, younger adults with low education, smokers and people with CD4 T-cell counts < 200 cells/mm3. Default was less likely to occur in patients under HAART, reinforcing the strategy of early initiation of HAART in individuals with TB

Burden of injury along the development spectrum: Associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold &gt;75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold &lt;0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold &lt;1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH