Point and Interval Estimation on the Degree and the Angle of Polarization. A Bayesian approach

Linear polarization measurements provide access to two quantities, the degree (DOP) and the angle of polarization (AOP). The aim of this work is to give a complete and concise overview of how to analyze polarimetric measurements. We review interval estimations for the DOP with a frequentist and a Bayesian approach. Point estimations for the DOP and interval estimations for the AOP are further investigated with a Bayesian approach to match observational needs. Point and interval estimations are calculated numerically for frequentist and Bayesian statistics. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to clarify the meaning of the calculations. Under observational conditions, the true DOP and AOP are unknown, so that classical statistical considerations - based on true values - are not directly usable. In contrast, Bayesian statistics handles unknown true values very well and produces point and interval estimations for DOP and AOP, directly. Using a Bayesian approach, we show how to choose DOP point estimations based on the measured signal-to-noise ratio. Interval estimations for the DOP show great differences in the limit of low signal-to-noise ratios between the classical and Bayesian approach. AOP interval estimations that are based on observational data are presented for the first time. All results are directly usable via plots and parametric fits.Comment: 11 pages, 14 figures, 3 table

Social Media, Venue and the Right to a Fair Trial

Judicial failure to recognize social media\u27s influence on juror decision making has identifiable constitutional implications. The Sixth Amendment right to a fair trial demands that courts grant a defendant\u27s change of venue motion when media-generated pretrial publicity invades the unbiased sensibility of those who are asked to sit in judgment. Courts limit publicity suitable for granting a defendant\u27s motion to information culled from newspapers, radio, and television reports. Since about 2014, however, a handful of defendants have introduced social media posts to support their claims of unconstitutional bias in the community. Despite defendants\u27 introduction of negative social media in support of their claims, these same courts have yet to include social media in their evaluation of pretrial publicity bias. But social media is media, and as this article demonstrates, trial court judges faced with deciding change of venue motions have a constitutional obligation to include social media in their evaluations. The collective refusal to treat social media the same as biased television, radio, or print media, suggests an erroneous assumption on the part of lower courts that social media is somehow different. This article identifies three reasons as justification for dismissing social media: social media is too recent a medium to fully understand and analyze, social media is not a legitimate news source, and social media is opinion based. Application of pretrial social media publicity to long-standing Supreme Court change of venue doctrine, coupled with its exploration of scientific and social research on social media influence, debunk these lower court rationalizations. This article demonstrates that the reluctance of courts to consider social media evidence when deciding whether to grant a motion for a change of venue is a violation of any defendant\u27s Sixth Amendment right to a fair trial. On a larger scale, the article demands that courts embrace our new reality. Social media intersects with criminal justice, and our daily lives, in ways that demand judicial recognition

Subdivision and genetic structure of four populations of Venturia inaequalis in Switzerland

Analyses of four populations of Venturia inaequalis in Switzerland were performed to obtain information about migration and to predict the probable speed of the spread of new pathotypes able to overcome resistance, e.g. Vf-resistance, of new cultivars. Genetic and haplotype diversity was calculated based on allele frequencies of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers and the internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-region of ribosomal DNA, which are regarded to be neutral, and the β-tubulin locus which may be under selection pressure. Within-population diversity was found to be quite similar over all four populations. Normalised haplotype diversity based on RAPD and ITS data was very high with a mean of 0.95. Diversity among populations (GST) was consistent over all neutral loci with a low mean of 0.04, but reached the high value of 0.26 for the selected β-tubulin locus. Low GST based on neutral loci may suggest a high level of gene flow. Considering these results, new pathotypes would be expected soon outside their place of identification. But actual gene flow is easily overestimated because of effects of gene flow in the past. However, naturally occurring gene flow could be increased by human activity. Therefore, it is very difficult to predict durability of the Vf-resitance in Switzerlan

The Life in Gendhing: Current Approaches to Javanese Gamelan

Page range: 169-18

New technology will make it easier to work in multilingual teams

Helene Tenzer and Markus Pudelko suggest ways to improve multinational team communicatio

Modelling Recursive Calls with UML State Diagrams

One of the principal uses of UML is the modelling of synchronous object-oriented software systems, in which the behaviour of each of several classes is modelled using a state diagram. UML permits a transition of the state diagram to show both the event which causes the transition (typically, the fact that the object receives a message) and the object’s reaction (typically, the fact that the object sends a message). UML’s semantics for state diagrams is “run to completion”. We show that this can lead to anomalous behaviour, and in particular that it is not possible to model recursive calls, in which an object receives a second message whilst still in the process of reacting to the first. Drawing on both ongoing work by the UML2.0 submitters and recent theoretical work [1,6], we propose a solution to this problem using state diagrams in two complementary ways

Multiscale Dynamics in Communities of Phase Oscillators

We investigate the dynamics of systems of many coupled phase oscillators with het- erogeneous frequencies. We suppose that the oscillators occur in M groups. Each oscillator is connected to other oscillators in its group with "attractive" coupling, such that the coupling promotes synchronization within the group. The coupling between oscillators in different groups is "repulsive"; i.e., their oscillation phases repel. To address this problem, we reduce the governing equations to a lower-dimensional form via the ansatz of Ott and Antonsen . We first consider the symmetric case where all group parameters are the same, and the attractive and repulsive coupling are also the same for each of the M groups. We find a manifold L of neutrally stable equilibria, and we show that all other equilibria are unstable. For M \geq 3, L has dimension M - 2, and for M = 2 it has dimension 1. To address the general asymmetric case, we then introduce small deviations from symmetry in the group and coupling param- eters. Doing a slow/fast timescale analysis, we obtain slow time evolution equations for the motion of the M groups on the manifold L. We use these equations to study the dynamics of the groups and compare the results with numerical simulations.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure

Ausbreitung terrestrischer Wirbelloser durch Fließgewässer

Fragmentation und Isolation werden als wichtigste Gründe für den Rückgang der Biodiversität in der heutigen Kulturlandschaft angesehen. Allerdings sind generelle Schlussfolgerungen zur Fragmentation, dem Individuenaustausch zwischen Populationen sowie zur Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit zu überprüfen, wenn sie ausschließlich Daten zur aktiven Ausbreitung bestimmter Taxa berücksichtigen. Ausbreitungsdistanzen bei passiver Verfrachtung durch Vektoren wie Flüsse können maximale aktive Ausbreitungsdistanzen terrestrischer Wirbelloser übertreffen, wie Freilanduntersuchungen an der Lahn bei Marburg (Hessen) und an der Elbe nahe Dessau (Sachsen-Anhalt) in den Jahren 2000 bis 2002 und Laborexperimente belegen. Markierte Arianta arbustorum (Gastropoda, Helicidae) wurden an der Lahn bis zu 2.1 km verfrachtet. An der Elbe überwand Helix pomatia Entfernungen von bis zu 19,8 km. Der in Laborversuchen ermittelten Schwimmdauer von Arianta arbustorum auf der Wasseroberfläche von bis zu 32 h (17,5°C Wassertemperatur) würde, bei einer Fließgeschwindigkeit von 1,2 m s-1, eine Transportdistanz von 173 km entsprechen. Die passive Ausbreitung durch Fließgewässer ist somit ein Schlüsselprozess für die Neu- und Wiederbesiedlung von Standorten, die durch eine hohe Habitatdynamik gekennzeichnet sind, wie Überschwemmungsgebiete und angrenzende Kulturlandschaften. Die nachweisbar hohen Individuenzahlen verfrachteter, lebender terrestrischer Wirbelloser bei Hochwasser unterstützen diese Hypothese. Am Rhein wurden an der Kühkopf-Knoblochsaue (bei Darmstadt) 4170 (SE +/-738) Individuen in 100 L Treibgut (Genist) nachgewiesen (Hochwasser, März 2001). An der Lahn wurden mit Hilfe einer Driftfalle 2191 (SE+/-279) Individuen pro 100 l Pflanzenmaterial erfasst. (Januar und Februar 2001). Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein verfrachtetes Individuum ein geeignetes Habitat erreicht, ist an Fließgewässern vergleichsweise hoch, da entlang des Gewässerverlaufs eine hohe Kontinuität ähnlicher ökologischer Standortbedingungen gegeben ist. Die untersuchte Art A. arbustorum ist zudem fähig, in räumlicher Nähe liegende, geeignete Habitate nach dem Anschwemmen aufzufinden