Random errors are not necessarily politically neutral

Errors are inevitable in the implementation of any complex process. Here we examine the effect of random errors on Single Transferable Vote (STV) elections, a common approach to deciding multi-seat elections. It is usually expected that random errors should have nearly equal effects on all candidates, and thus be fair. We find to the contrary that random errors can introduce systematic bias into election results. This is because, even if the errors are random, votes for different candidates occur in different patterns that are affected differently by random errors. In the STV context, the most important effect of random errors is to invalidate the ballot. This removes far more votes for those candidates whose supporters tend to list a lot of preferences, because their ballots are much more likely to be invalidated by random error. Different validity rules for different voting styles mean that errors are much more likely to penalise some types of votes than others. For close elections this systematic bias can change the result of the election

Auditing Ranked Voting Elections with Dirichlet-Tree Models: First Steps

Ranked voting systems, such as instant-runo voting (IRV) and single transferable vote (STV), are used in many places around the world. They are more complex than plurality and scoring rules, pre- senting a challenge for auditing their outcomes: there is no known risk- limiting audit (RLA) method for STV other than a full hand count. We present a new approach to auditing ranked systems that uses a sta- tistical model, a Dirichlet-tree, that can cope with high-dimensional pa- rameters in a computationally e cient manner. We demonstrate this ap- proach with a ballot-polling Bayesian audit for IRV elections. Although the technique is not known to be risk-limiting, we suggest some strategies that might allow it to be calibrated to limit risk

Leukocytes Are Recruited through the Bronchial Circulation to the Lung in a Spontaneously Hypertensive Rat Model of COPD

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) kills approximately 2.8 million people each year, and more than 80% of COPD cases can be attributed to smoking. Leukocytes recruited to the lung contribute to COPD pathology by releasing reactive oxygen metabolites and proteolytic enzymes. In this work, we investigated where leukocytes enter the lung in the early stages of COPD in order to better understand their effect as a contributor to the development of COPD. We simultaneously evaluated the parenchyma and airways for neutrophil accumulation, as well as increases in the adhesion molecules and chemokines that cause leukocyte recruitment in the early stages of tobacco smoke induced lung disease. We found neutrophil accumulation and increased expression of adhesion molecules and chemokines in the bronchial blood vessels that correlated with the accumulation of leukocytes recovered from the lung. The expression of adhesion molecules and chemokines in other vascular beds did not correlate with leukocytes recovered in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF). These data strongly suggest leukocytes are recruited in large measure through the bronchial circulation in response to tobacco smoke. Our findings have important implications for understanding the etiology of COPD and suggest that pharmaceuticals designed to reduce leukocyte recruitment through the bronchial circulation may be a potential therapy to treat COPD

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (bodymass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use

Factors influencing terrestriality in primates of the Americas and Madagascar

Among mammals, the order Primates is exceptional in having a high taxonomic richness in which the taxa are arboreal, semiterrestrial, or terrestrial. Although habitual terrestriality is pervasive among the apes and African and Asian monkeys (catarrhines), it is largely absent among monkeys of the Americas (platyrrhines), as well as galagos, lemurs, and lorises (strepsirrhines), which are mostly arboreal. Numerous ecological drivers and species-specific factors are suggested to set the conditions for an evolutionary shift from arboreality to terrestriality, and current environmental conditions may provide analogous scenarios to those transitional periods. Therefore, we investigated predominantly arboreal, diurnal primate genera from the Americas and Madagascar that lack fully terrestrial taxa, to determine whether ecological drivers (habitat canopy cover, predation risk, maximum temperature, precipitation, primate species richness, human population density, and distance to roads) or species-specific traits (body mass, group size, and degree of frugivory) associate with increased terrestriality. We collated 150,961 observation hours across 2,227 months from 47 species at 20 sites in Madagascar and 48 sites in the Americas. Multiple factors were associated with ground use in these otherwise arboreal species, including increased temperature, a decrease in canopy cover, a dietary shift away from frugivory, and larger group size. These factors mostly explain intraspecific differences in terrestriality. As humanity modifies habitats and causes climate change, our results suggest that species already inhabiting hot, sparsely canopied sites, and exhibiting more generalized diets, are more likely to shift toward greater ground use

Did that lost ballot box cost me a seat?:computing manipulations of STV elections

Mistakes made by humans, or machines, commonly arise when managing ballots cast in an election. In the 2013 Australian Federal Election, for example, 1,370 West Australian Senate ballots were lost, eventually leading to a costly re-run of the election. Other mistakes include ballots that are misrecorded by electronic voting systems, voters that cast invalid ballots, or vote multiple times at different polling locations. We present a method for assessing whether such problems could have made a difference to the outcome of a Single Transferable Vote (STV) election – a complex system of preferential voting for multi-seat elections. It is used widely in Australia, in Ireland, and in a range of local government elections in the United Kingdom and United States

Antiplasmodial, beta-haematin inhibition, antitrypanosomal and cytotoxic activity in vitro of novel 4-aminoquinoline 2-imidazolines.

A novel series of 4-aminoquinoline-containing 2-imidazolines were synthesized via a one-pot 3-component condensation reaction of amine, aldehyde and isocyanoacetate. The products were obtained in high yield as well as purity and were evaluated directly against two strains of Plasmodium falciparum and Trypanosoma brucei. Compound was the most active across all parasites with ED(50) = 3.3 nM against a chloroquine (CQ)-sensitive 3D7 strain, ED(50) = 33 nM against a CQ-resistant K1 strain and ED(50) = 70 nM against T. brucei. Several compounds were able to inhibit formation of beta-haematin in vitro, suggesting haemozoin formation in the malaria parasite as a possible target. On the other hand, evaluation against a human KB cell line revealed that the compounds were generally non-cytotoxic to the host cells