Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed

Using verbal autopsy to measure causes of death: the comparative performance of existing methods

Background: Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. Methods: We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. Results: Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. Conclusions: Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices. © 2014 Murray et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Soil-transmitted helminth infections and nutritional indices among Filipino schoolchildren

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are still prevalent among schoolchildren in the Philippines. We evaluated the risk factors associated with STH and the relationship between STH and nutritional indices among schoolchildren aged 9-10 years in Laguna province, the Philippines. METHODS: We used the baseline data from 40 schools enrolled in a randomised controlled trial of the Magic Glasses Philippines health education package. Data on demographic and socio-economic variables, and STH related knowledge, attitudes and practices, were obtained through a questionnaire. Stool samples were collected and assessed for STH egg presence using the Kato-Katz technique. Haemoglobin levels and height and weight of study participants were also determined. The generalized estimating equations approach was used to construct logistic regression models to assess STH-associated risk factors, and the association between any STH infection and anaemia, child stunting, wasting and being underweight. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616000508471). FINDINGS: Among 1,689 schoolchildren, the prevalence of any STH was 23%. The prevalence of anaemia, stunting, being underweight and wasting was 13%, 20.2%, 19% and 9.5%, respectively. Age, socio-economic status, rural/urban classification of schools and knowledge of STH were significant risk factors for acquiring a STH infection. Moreover, infections with any STH were significantly associated with stunting (P = <0.001) and being underweight (P = <0.003), but not wasting (P = 0.375) or anaemia (P = 0.462) after controlling for confounding covariates. CONCLUSION: The study findings emphasise the need for sustainable deworming in tandem with other measures such as the provision of health education, improvements in sanitation and hygiene, and nutritional programs in order to control STH infections and improve morbidity outcomes in schoolchildren. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616000508471)

Population Pharmacokinetics of Praziquantel in Pregnant and Lactating Filipino Women Infected with Schistosoma japonicum.

An estimated 40 million women of reproductive age are infected with one of three species of the waterborne parasite Schistosoma spp. Treatment with praziquantel (PZQ) via mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns is the mainstay of schistosomiasis control for populations living in areas of endemicity. The World Health Organization recommends that pregnant and lactating women be included in schistosomiasis MDA programs, and several recent studies have evaluated the safety and efficacy of PZQ use during pregnancy. To date, there are no data describing PZQ pharmacokinetics (PK) during pregnancy or among lactating postpartum women. As part of a randomized controlled trial investigating the safety and efficacy of PZQ during human pregnancy, we examined the PK of this therapeutic drug among three distinct cohorts of women infected with S. japonicum in Leyte, Philippines. Specifically, we studied the PK properties of PZQ among early- and late-gestation pregnant women (n = 15 each) and lactating postpartum women (n = 15) with schistosomiasis. We found that women in early pregnancy had increased apparent clearance and lower area-under-the-curve (AUC0-24) values that may be related to physiological changes in drug clearance and/or changes in oral bioavailability. There was no relationship between body weight and apparent clearance. The mean ± standard deviation partition ratio of plasma to breast milk was 0.36. ± 0.13. The estimated median infant PZQ daily dose would be 0.037 mg/kg of body weight ingested from breast milk, which is significantly lower than the dosage required for antischistosomal activity and not known to be harmful to the infant. Our PK data do not support the suggestion to delay breastfeeding 72 h after taking PZQ. Results can help inform future drug efficacy studies in pregnant and lactating women with schistosomiasis

Population Genetics of Schistosoma japonicum within the Philippines Suggest High Levels of Transmission between Humans and Dogs

Schistosomiasis is a disease caused by parasitic worms known as schistosomes, which infect about 200 million people worldwide. In the Philippines, as in China, the species of schistosome (Schistosoma japonicum) which causes the disease infects not only humans, but also many other species of mammals. In China, bovines are thought to be particularly important for harboring and transmitting S. japonicum, whereas in the Philippines infections in bovines are relatively rare. However, dogs, rats and pigs are often infected with S. japonicum in the Philippines, although the extent to which infections in these animals may give rise to human infections is unclear. To help answer this question, we characterized the genetic variation of the parasite in Samar province of the Philippines, and found that S. japonicum samples from humans, dogs, rats and pigs were genetically very similar, with no significant genetic difference between samples from humans and dogs. This suggests that in the Philippines this parasite is frequently transmitted between different mammalian species, particularly between dogs and humans. Reducing levels of infections in dogs may therefore help to reduce infections in humans. The results also suggest high levels of transmission between geographic areas, thus regional co-ordination of treatment programs is recommended

A Prospective Nested Case-Control Study of Dengue in Infants: Rethinking and Refining the Antibody-Dependent Enhancement Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Model

Analyses of a prospective case-control study of infant dengue by Daniel Libraty and colleagues casts doubt on the antibody-dependent enhancement model for dengue hemorrhagic fever

Using Verbal Autopsy to Measure Causes of Death: the Comparative Performance of Existing Methods.

Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices