Predicting the Growth of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters under Varying Ambient Temperature

Temperature is a critical factor that influences the proliferation of pathogens in hosts. One example of this is the human pathogen Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in oysters. Here, a continuous time model was developed for predicting the growth of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in oysters under varying ambient temperature. The model was fit and evaluated against data from previous experiments. Once evaluated, the V. parahaemolyticus dynamics in oysters were estimated at different post-harvest varying temperature scenarios affected by water and air temperature and different ice treatment timing. The model performed adequately under varying temperature, reflecting that (i) increasing temperature, particularly in hot summers, favors a rapid V. parahaemolyticus growth in oysters, resulting in a very high risk of gastroenteritis in humans after consumption of a serving of raw oysters, (ii) pathogen inactivation due to day/night oscillations and, more evidently, due to ice treatments, and (iii) ice treatment is much more effective, limiting the risk of illness when applied immediately onboard compared to dockside. The model resulted in being a promising tool for improving the understanding of the V. parahaemolyticus–oyster system and supporting studies on the public health impact of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus associated with raw oyster consumption. Although robust validation of the model predictions is needed, the initial results and evaluation showed the potential of the model to be easily modified to match similar systems where the temperature is a critical factor shaping the proliferation of pathogens in hosts.This research was funded by the Basque Government (GIC21/82

Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters under Low Tidal Range Conditions: Is Seawater Analysis Useful for Risk Assessment?

Human-pathogenic Vibrio bacteria are acquired by oysters through filtering seawater, however, the relationships between levels of these bacteria in measured in oysters and overlying waters are inconsistent across regions. The reasons for these discrepancies are unclear hindering our ability to assess if -or when- seawater samples can be used as a proxy for oysters to assess risk. We investigated whether concentrations of total and human pathogenic Vibrio vulnificus (vvhA and pilF genes) and Vibrio parahaemolyticus (tlh, tdh and trh genes) measured in seawater reflect concentrations of these bacteria in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) cultured within the US lower Chesapeake Bay region. We measured Vibrio spp. concentrations using an MPN-qPCR approach and analyzed the data using structural equation modeling (SEM). We found seawater concentrations of these bacteria to predictably respond to temperature and salinity over chlorophyll a, pheophytin or turbidity. We also inferred from the SEM results that Vibrio concentrations in seawater strongly predict their respective concentrations in oysters. We hypothesize that such seawater-oyster coupling can be observed in regions of low tidal range. Due to the ease of sampling and processing of seawater samples compared to oyster samples, we suggest that under low tidal range conditions, seawater samples can foster increased spatial and temporal coverage and complement data associated with oyster samples

Marine infectious disease dynamics and outbreak thresholds: contact transmission, pandemic infection, and the potential role of filter feeders

Disease-causing organisms can have significant impacts on marine species and communities. However, the dynamics that underlie the emergence of disease outbreaks in marine ecosystems still lack the equivalent level of description, conceptual understanding, and modeling context routinely present in the terrestrial systems. Here, we propose a theoretical basis for modeling the transmission of marine infectious diseases (MIDs) developed from simple models of the spread of infectious disease. The models represent the dynamics of a variety of host–pathogen systems including those unique to marine systems where transmission of disease is by contact with waterborne pathogens both directly and through filter-feeding processes. Overall, the analysis of the epizootiological models focused on the most relevant processes that interact to drive the initiation and termination of epizootics. A priori, systems with multi-step disease infections (e.g., infection-death-particle release-filtration-transmission) reduced dependence on individual parameters resulting in inherently slower transmissions rates. This is demonstrably not the case; thus, these alternative transmission pathways must also considerably increase the rates of processes involved in transmission. Scavengers removing dead infected animals may inhibit disease spread in both contact-based and waterborne pathogen-based diseases. The capacity of highly infected animals, both alive and dead, to release a substantial number of infective elements into the water column, making them available to suspension feeders results in such diseases being highly infective with a very small “low-abundance refuge”. In these systems, the body burden of pathogens and the relative importance between the release and the removal rate of pathogens in the host tissue or water column becomes paramount. Two processes are of potential consequence inhibiting epizootics. First, large water volumes above the benthic susceptible populations can function as a sink for pathogens. Second, unlike contact-based disease models in which an increase in the number of susceptible individuals in the population increases the likelihood of transmission and epizootic development, large populations of filter feeders can reduce this likelihood through the overfiltration of infective particles.This investigation was funded by the NSF Evolution and Ecology of Infectious Diseases (EEID) Program Grant # OCE-1216220. We appreciate this support

Marine Infectious Disease Dynamics and Outbreak Thresholds: Contact Transmission, Pandemic Infection, and the Potential Role of Filter Feeders

Disease-causing organisms can have significant impacts on marine species and communities. However, the dynamics that underlie the emergence of disease outbreaks in marine ecosystems still lack the equivalent level of description, conceptual understanding, and modeling context routinely present in the terrestrial systems. Here, we propose a theoretical basis for modeling the transmission of marine infectious diseases (MIDs) developed from simple models of the spread of infectious disease. The models represent the dynamics of a variety of host-pathogen systems including those unique to marine systems where transmission of disease is by contact with waterborne pathogens both directly and through filter-feeding processes. Overall, the analysis of the epizootiological models focused on the most relevant processes that interact to drive the initiation and termination of epizootics. A priori, systems with multi-step disease infections (e.g., infection-death-particle release-filtration-transmission) reduced dependence on individual parameters resulting in inherently slower transmissions rates. This is demonstrably not the case; thus, these alternative transmission pathways must also considerably increase the rates of processes involved in transmission. Scavengers removing dead infected animals may inhibit disease spread in both contact-based and waterborne pathogen-based diseases. The capacity of highly infected animals, both alive and dead, to release a substantial number of infective elements into the water column, making them available to suspension feeders results in such diseases being highly infective with a very small low-abundance refuge . In these systems, the body burden of pathogens and the relative importance between the release and the removal rate of pathogens in the host tissue or water column becomes paramount. Two processes are of potential consequence inhibiting epizootics. First, large water volumes above the benthic susceptible populations can function as a sink for pathogens. Second, unlike contact-based disease models in which an increase in the number of susceptible individuals in the population increases the likelihood of transmission and epizootic development, large populations of filter feeders can reduce this likelihood through the overfiltration of infective particles

Intensive oyster aquaculture can reduce disease impacts on sympatric wild oysters

Risks associated with disease spread from fish and shellfish farming have plagued the growth and public perception of aquaculture worldwide. However, by processing nutrients and organic material from the water column, the culture of many suspension-feeding bivalves has been proposed as a novel solution toward mitigating problems facing coastal water quality, including the removal of disease-causing parasites. Here we developed and simulated an epidemiological model describing sympatric oyster Crassostrea virginica populations in aquaculture and the wild impacted by the protozoan parasite Perkinsus marinus. Our model captured the indirect interaction between wild and cultured populations that occurs through sharing water-borne P. marinus transmission stages, and we hypothesized that oyster aquaculture can enhance wild oyster populations through reduced parasitism as long as cultured oysters are harvested prior to spreading disease. We found that the density of oysters in aquaculture, which is commonly thought to lead to the spread of disease through farms and out to nearby populations in the wild, has only indirect effects on P. marinus transmission through its interaction with the rate of aquaculture harvests. Sufficient aquaculture harvest, which varies with the susceptibility of farmed oysters to P. marinus infection and their lifespan once infected, reduces disease by diluting parasites in the environment. Our modeling results offer new insights toward the broader epidemiological implications of oyster aquaculture and effective disease management

Mapping Physiological Suitability Limits for Malaria in Africa Under Climate Change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: A Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases, like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number $R_0$. However, understanding the mechanisms linking $R_0$ and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of $R_0$ and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of $R_0$. Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15-25$^\circ$ C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially $\sim$25-32$^\circ$ C; mortality from 20-30$^\circ$ C; parasite development rate at $\sim$15-16$^\circ$C and again at $\sim$33-35$^\circ$C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of $R_0$. While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.Comment: 27 pages, including 1 table and 3 figure

Knowledge Integration in the Digital Age: Trajectories, Opportunities and Future Directions

Researchers from around the world have shaped knowledge integration (KI), a framework that captures the processes learners use to build on their multiple ideas and refine their understanding. KI emerged 25 years ago from syntheses of experimental, longitudinal, and meta-analytic studies of learning and instruction. Advances in KI have resulted from partnerships that combine expertise in learning, instruction, classroom teaching, assessment, technology, and the disciplines. This structured poster session includes partnerships that have advanced design of instruction, assessment, professional development, learning technologies, and research methodologies. Participants report on new technologies, including games, to strengthen KI; instructional designs that take advantage of collaboration to support KI; and extensions of KI to integrate science with other disciplines. They summarize exciting results and identify promising opportunities for advancing STEM instruction to promote intentional, life-long learners in the digital age