Cluster analysis of multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification data in choroidal melanoma.

PurposeTo determine underlying correlations in multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) data and their significance regarding survival following treatment of choroidal melanoma (CM).MethodsMLPA data were available for 31 loci across four chromosomes (1p, 3, 6, and 8) in tumor material obtained from 602 patients with CM treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Center (LOOC) between 1993 and 2012. Data representing chromosomes 3 and 8q were analyzed in depth since their association with CM patient survival is well-known. Unsupervised k-means cluster analysis was performed to detect latent structure in the data set. Principal component analysis (PCA) was also performed to determine the intrinsic dimensionality of the data. Survival analyses of the identified clusters were performed using Kaplan-Meier (KM) and log-rank statistical tests. Correlation with largest basal tumor diameter (LTD) was investigated.ResultsChromosome 3: A two-cluster (bimodal) solution was found in chromosome 3, characterized by centroids at unilaterally normal probe values and unilateral deletion. There was a large, significant difference in the survival characteristics of the two clusters (log-rank, p<0.001; 5-year survival: 80% versus 40%). Both clusters had a broad distribution in LTD, although larger tumors were characteristically in the poorer outcome group (Mann-Whitney, p<0.001). Threshold values of 0.85 for deletion and 1.15 for gain optimized the classification of the clusters. PCA showed that the first principal component (PC1) contained more than 80% of the data set variance and all of the bimodality, with uniform coefficients (0.28±0.03). Chromosome 8q: No clusters were found in chromosome 8q. Using a conventional threshold-based definition of 8q gain, and in conjunction with the chromosome 3 clusters, three prognostic groups were identified: chromosomes 3 and 8q both normal, either chromosome 3 or 8q abnormal, and both chromosomes 3 and 8q abnormal. KM analysis showed 5-year survival figures of approximately 97%, 80%, and 30% for these prognostic groups, respectively (log-rank, p<0.001). All MLPA probes within both chromosomes were significantly correlated with each other (Spearman, p<0.001).ConclusionsWithin chromosome 3, the strong correlation between the MLPA variables and the uniform coefficients from the PCA indicates a lack of evidence for a signature gene that might account for the bimodality we observed. We hypothesize that the two clusters we found correspond to binary underlying states of complete monosomy or disomy 3 and that these states are sampled by the complete ensemble of probes. Consequently, we would expect a similar pattern to emerge in higher-resolution MLPA data sets. LTD may be a significant confounding factor. Considering chromosome 8q, we found that chromosome 3 cluster membership and 8q gain as traditionally defined have an indistinguishable impact on patient outcome

Small High-Risk Uveal Melanomas Have a Lower Mortality Rate

Our aim was to determine whether size impacts on the difference in metastatic mortality of genetically high-risk (monosomy 3) uveal melanomas (UM). We undertook a retrospective analysis of data from a patient cohort with genetically characterized UM. All patients treated for UM in the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between 2007 and 2014, who had a prognostic genetic tumor analysis. Patients were subdivided into those with small (≤2.5 mm thickness) and large (>2.5 mm thickness) tumors. Survival analyses were performed using Gray rank statistics to calculate absolute probabilities of dying as a result of metastatic UM. The 5-year absolute risk of metastatic mortality of those with small monosomy 3 UM was significantly lower (23%) compared to the larger tumor group (50%) (p = 0.003). Small disomy 3 UM also had a lower absolute risk of metastatic mortality (0.8%) than large disomy 3 UM (6.4%) (p = 0.007). Hazard rates showed similar differences even with lead time bias correction estimates. We therefore conclude that earlier treatment of all small UM, particularly monosomy 3 UM, reduces the risk of metastatic disease and death. Our results would support molecular studies of even small UM, rather than ‘watch-and-wait strategies’

Prognostication of metastatic death in uveal melanoma patients: A Markov multi-state model

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Uveal melanoma is fatal in almost 50% of patients. We previously developed a prognostic model to predict all-cause mortality. The aim of this study was to improve our model by predicting metastatic death as a cause-specific event distinct from other causes of death. METHODS: Patients treated in Liverpool were included if they resided in England, Scotland or Wales and if their uveal melanoma involved the choroid. They were flagged at the National Health Service Cancer Registry, which automatically informed us of the date and cause of death of any deceased patients. A semiparametric Markov multi-state model was fitted. Two different baseline hazard rates were assumed, with state transition-specific covariates. For both failure types, age at treatment and sex were used. For the metastatic death case, these factors were added: anterior margin position, largest basal tumour diameter, tumour thickness, extra-ocular extension, presence of epithelioid melanoma cells, presence of closed connective tissue loops, increased mitotic count, chromosome 3 loss, and chromosome 8q gain. Missing data required a multiple-imputation procedure. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 4161 patients, 893 of whom died of metastastic disease with another 772 dying of other causes. The optimism-corrected, bootstrapped C-index for metastatic death prediction was 0.86, denoting very good discriminative performance. Bootstrapped calibration curves at two and five years also showed very good performance. CONCLUSIONS: Our improved model provides reliable, personalised metastatic death prognostication using clinical, histological and genetic information, and it can be used as a decision support tool to individualize patient care in a clinical environment.</p

A Retrospective Analysis of 10 Years of Liver Surveillance Undertaken in Uveal Melanoma Patients Treated at the Supraregional "Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre", UK

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Around 45% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM) develop liver metastases on average 3 years after diagnosis of the primary tumour. After clinical detection of metastases, median patient survival is approximately one year. Early identification of metastases through liver surveillance is important so that targeted treatment can benefit affected patients, aiming to prolong their survival. The aim of our retrospective study was to investigate and correlate the characteristics of UM patients diagnosed and treated at a UK supraregional referral center, the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre (LOOC), and who were included in the Centre’s liver screening programs for screening for liver metastases. “Real-world” data on the frequency of liver screening in patients after diagnosis and treatment of primary UM are lacking. Through the liver screening program, we found that metastases were detected in 37% of the 615 UM patients studied. A new output based on the prognostic indices of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online version 3 (LUMPO3) model was fitted to the dataset of these patients and accurately estimated the time of onset of metastases. ABSTRACT: Purpose: To determine liver screening frequency and modality in UM patients following primary treatment, and the characteristics of detected metastases. Methods: A 10-year retrospective study of 615 UM patients undergoing liver surveillance in Liverpool. Information was collected from liver scan reports of these patients. Results: Of 615 UM patients analyzed, there were 337 men (55%) and 278 women (45%). Median age at primary treatment was 61 years (range, 22–94). At study end, median follow-up was 5.1 years, with 375 patients (61%) alive and 240 deceased (39%). Of the deceased patients, 187 (78%) died due to metastatic UM; 24 (10%) deaths were due to other causes; and 29 (12%) patients died of unknown conditions. In total, 3854 liver scans were performed in the 615 UM patients, with a median of 6.2 scans per patient (range, 1–40). Liver MRI was most frequently performed (62.8%). In total, 229 (37%) UM patients developed metastases during the study period: 150 were detected via liver surveillance and 79 were observed post-mortem. Conclusions: Metastatic UM onset is related to the size and genetic profiles of the primary UM, and can be predicted using the model LUMPO3. Regular liver surveillance allowed for timely detection of metastases, and through metastasectomy can lead to prolongation of life in some patients