Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact

Water quality under the changing climatic condition: a review of the Indian scenario

The current work reviews the state of Indian water quality under the climate change regime. Rising temperatures will lead to higher concentration of pollutants like nutrients (nitrates, phosphates etc.), persistent organic pollutants and pesticides. Probable negative consequences include increase in harmful algal blooms, toxicity hazards in people etc. Rising temperatures could lead to release of higher amounts of fluoride and uranium due to prevalence of drier oxic conditions, and also arsenic due to release from iron (hydr)oxides. Implications on emerging contaminants, a new class of pollutants without any regulatory status, is not clearly understood. Prevalence of microbes in water is also predicted to increase. Coastal aquifers appear to be at risk from salt water intrusion. Conflicts on the international and national platform is predicted to rise due to issues with sharing of water. Lastly, we also discuss the sustainability options for water in India under a changing climatic regime, under three broad subcategories signifying the roles of (1) science, (2) policies and legal framework and the (3) people perspective, while also highlighting the existing lacunae.by Nilotpal Das, Chandan Mahanta and Manish Kuma

Advances in predictive in vitro models of drug-induced nephrotoxicity

In vitro screens for nephrotoxicity are currently poorly predictive of toxicity in humans. Although the functional proteins that are expressed by nephron tubules and mediate drug susceptibility are well known, current in vitro cellular models poorly replicate both the morphology and the function of kidney tubules and therefore fail to demonstrate injury responses to drugs that would be nephrotoxic in vivo. Advances in protocols to enable the directed differentiation of pluripotent stem cells into multiple renal cell types and the development of microfluidic and 3D culture systems have opened a range of potential new platforms for evaluating drug nephrotoxicity. Many of the new in vitro culture systems have been characterized by the expression and function of transporters, enzymes, and other functional proteins that are expressed by the kidney and have been implicated in drug-induced renal injury. In vitro platforms that express these proteins and exhibit molecular biomarkers that have been used as readouts of injury demonstrate improved functional maturity compared with static 2D cultures and represent an opportunity to model injury to renal cell types that have hitherto received little attention. As nephrotoxicity screening platforms become more physiologically relevant, they will facilitate the development of safer drugs and improved clinical management of nephrotoxicants

Genome-wide association study identifies five new susceptibility loci for primary angle closure glaucoma

Primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) is a major cause of blindness worldwide. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) followed by replication in a combined total of 10,503 PACG cases and 29,567 controls drawn from 24 countries across Asia, Australia, Europe, North America, and South America. We observed significant evidence of disease association at five new genetic loci upon meta-analysis of all patient collections. These loci are at EPDR1 rs3816415 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.24, P = 5.94 × 10-15), CHAT rs1258267 (OR = 1.22, P = 2.85 × 10-16), GLIS3 rs736893 (OR = 1.18, P = 1.43 × 10-14), FERMT2 rs7494379 (OR = 1.14, P = 3.43 × 10-11), and DPM2-FAM102A rs3739821 (OR = 1.15, P = 8.32 × 10-12). We also confirmed significant association at three previously described loci (P < 5 × 10-8 for each sentinel SNP at PLEKHA7, COL11A1, and PCMTD1-ST18), providing new insights into the biology of PACG