Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates

OBJECTIVES: National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. DESIGN: Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. METHODS: We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15–49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. RESULTS: Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3–7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2–6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0–8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9–8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI −9–38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P > 0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15–24 years while increasing significantly among women 35–49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. CONCLUSION: As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility

Population-Level Benefits from Providing Effective HIV Prevention Means to Pregnant Women in High Prevalence Settings

Background:HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Southern Africa is extremely high. Epidemiological studies suggest that pregnancy increases the risk of HIV sexual acquisition and that HIV infections acquired during pregnancy carry higher risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). We analyze the potential benefits from extending the availability of effective microbicide to pregnant women (in addition to non-pregnant women) in a wide-scale intervention.Methods and Findings:A transmission dynamic model was designed to assess the impact of microbicide use in high HIV prevalence settings and to estimate proportions of new HIV infections, infections acquired during pregnancy, and MTCT prevented over 10 years. Our analysis suggests that consistent use of microbicide with 70% efficacy by 60% of non-pregnant women may prevent approximately 40% and 15% of new infections in women and men respectively over 10 years, assuming no additional increase in HIV risk to either partner during pregnancy (RRHIV/preg = 1). It may also prevent 8-15% MTCT depending on the increase in MTCT risk when HIV is acquired during pregnancy compared to before pregnancy (RRMTCT/preg). Extending the microbicides use during pregnancy may improve the effectiveness of the intervention by 10% (RRHIV/preg = 1) to 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2) and reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy by 40% to 70% in different scenarios. It may add between 6% (RRHIV/preg = 1, RRMTCT/preg = 1) and 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2, RRMTCT/preg = 4) to the reduction in the residual MTCT.Conclusion:Providing safe and effective microbicide to pregnant women in the context of wide-scale interventions would be desirable as it would increase the effectiveness of the intervention and significantly reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy. The projected benefits from covering pregnant women by the HIV prevention programs is more substantial in communities in which the sexual risk during pregnancy is elevated. © 2013 Dimitrov et al

HIV Risk and Associations of HIV Infection among men who have sex with men in Peri-Urban Cape Town, South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Sub Saharan Africa has been traditionally assumed to be driven by high risk heterosexual and vertical transmission. However, there is an increasing body of data highlighting the disproportionate burden of HIV infection among MSM in the generalized HIV epidemics across of Southern Africa. In South Africa specifically, there has been an increase in attention focused on the risk status and preventive needs of MSM both in urban centers and peri-urban townships. The study presented here represents the first evaluation of HIV prevalence and associations of HIV infection among MSM in the peri-urban townships of Cape Town.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study consisted of an anonymous probe of 200 men, reporting ever having had sex with another man, recruited through venue-base sampling from January to February, 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, HIV prevalence was 25.5% (n = 51/200). Of these prevalent HIV infections, only 6% of HIV-1 infected MSM were aware of their HIV status (3/50). 0% of men reported always having safe sex as defined by always wearing condoms during sex and using water-based lubricants. Independent associations with HIV infection included inconsistent condom use with male partners (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-5.4), having been blackmailed (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.6-20.2), age over 26 years (aOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-10.6), being unemployed (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.3), and rural origin (aOR 6.0, 95% CI 2.2-16.7). Bisexual activity was reported by 17.1% (34/199), and a total of 8% (16/200) reported having a regular female partner. Human rights violations were common with 10.5% (n = 21/200) reporting having been blackmailed and 21.0% (n = 42/200) reporting being afraid to seek health care.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The conclusions from this study include that a there is a high risk and underserved population of MSM in the townships surrounding Cape Town. The high HIV prevalence and high risk sexual practices suggest that prevalence will continue to increase among these men in the context of an otherwise slowing epidemic. These data further highlight the need to better characterize risk factors for HIV prevention and appropriate targeted combination packages of HIV interventions including biomedical, behavioural, and structural approaches to mitigate HIV risk among these men.</p

HIV Prevention in High-Risk Women in South Africa: Condom Use and the Need for Change

INTRODUCTION: Young women are at disproportionate risk of HIV infection in South Africa. Understanding risk behaviors and factors associated with ability to negotiate safe sex and condom use is likely to be key in curbing the spread of HIV. Traditionally prevention efforts have focused on creating behavioral changes by increasing knowledge about HIV/AIDS. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis from a prospective observational cohort study of 245 women at a high-risk of HIV infection in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. RESULTS: Participants demonstrated a high level of HIV/AIDS knowledge. Overall, 60.3% of participants reported condom use. Reported condom use at last sexual encounter varied slightly by partner type (57.0% with steady versus 64.4% with casual partners), and self-perceived ability to choose to use a condom was significantly lower with steady partners compared to casual partners (p<0.01). In multivariate analysis, women who had high school education were more likely to use condoms at their last sex encounter compared to those with only primary school education (RR of 1.36 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.06-1.75) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.13-1.88) for grades 8-10 and 11-12, respectively). Those who used condoms as a contraceptive method were twice as likely to use condoms compared to women who did not report using them as a contraceptive method. Greater perceived ability to choose to use condoms was associated with higher self-reported condom use at last encounter, irrespective of partner type (RR = 2.65 (95% CI 2.15-32.5). DISCUSSION: Self-perceived ability to use condoms, level of formal education and condom use as a contraceptive were all significantly associated with self-reported condom use at last sexual encounter. These findings suggest that that gender inequality and access to formal education, as opposed to lack of HIV/AIDS knowledge, prevent safer sexual practices in South Africa

Health-related quality of life dynamics of HIV-positive South African women up to ART initiation : evidence from the CAPRISA 002 acute infection cohort study.

CAPRISA, 2014.Few studies have investigated the long-term dynamics in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among HIV-positive persons from acute infection. From 2004, 160 women were enrolled into the CAPRISA 002 Acute Infection study at two sites in the province of KwaZulu-Natal and underwent 3–6 monthly HRQoL assessments using the functional assessment of HIV infection (FAHI) instrument. Overall and 5 sub-scale FAHI scores [physical well-being (PWB), emotional well-being (EWB), functional and global well-being (FGWB), social well-being (SWB) and cognitive functioning (CF)] were calculated up to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and scores at enrollment were compared to the acute, early and established infection phases. Mixed-effects regression models adjusting for behavioral and clinical factors were applied to assess HRQoL trends and the proportion of women meeting minimally important differences was calculated. Our analyses revealed that overall/sub-scale scores improved over time, except from PWB and CF. A higher educational status, contraceptive use and a higher BMI were the strongest predictors of higher overall/sub-scale FAHI scores. CD4 count and HIV viral load were strongly associated with PWB and CF, but not overall FAHI and other sub-scales. Women newly diagnosed with acute HIV infection face profound HRQoL challenges. While early ART delivery may be important for PWB and CF, factors such as education, contraception provision and good nutritional status should be promoted to maximize HRQoL in HIV positive individuals

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Background Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the effects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15-49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18.8%), with eight models' central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17.5-20.3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16.9% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2012 (difference 1.9, 95% CI -0.1 to 3.9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1.6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI -0.3 to 3.5) in young adults aged 15-24 years, and the 2.2 percentage point (0.5 to 3.9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1.54-2.12 million. However, the differential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2.22 (95% CI 1.73-2.71). Interpretation Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections