Prophets and loss: how "soft facts" on social media influenced the Brexit campaign and social reactions to the murder of Jo Cox MP

This article examines “soft facts” about security issues in the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign. Soft facts arise when information provenance is uncertain, and are forms of malleable and contingent knowledge, such as rumors, conspiracy theories, and propaganda. There is a growing appreciation that digital communications environments are especially conducive to the dissemination of these kinds of information. Informed by empirical data comprising forty‐five thousand nine hundred and fifty‐seven data points collected by monitoring social media before and after the UK Brexit referendum campaign (June 16–October 12, 2016), the analysis examines how and why a series of soft facts concerning Brexit were mobilized. By developing the concept of “digital prophecy,” the article explores how influence is exerted by online prophets who were connecting current events to past grievances, to advance negative predictions about the future. This starts to capture the tradecraft of digital influencing, in ways that move beyond the structural topologies of communication networks. In policy terms, the analysis reminds us of the need to attend not just to how influence is achieved through fake news (e.g., using social media bots to amplify a message), but also why influence is sought in the first place

Measurement of the ratio of the ppˉ→Wp\bar{p}\to W+cc-jet cross section to the inclusive ppˉ→Wp\bar{p}\to W+jets cross section

We present a measurement of the fraction of inclusive $W$+jets events produced with net charm quantum number $\pm1$, denoted $W$+$c$-jet, in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV using approximately 1~fb$^{-1}$ of data collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We identify the $W$+jets events via the leptonic $W$ boson decays. Candidate $W$+$c$-jet events are selected by requiring a jet containing a muon in association with a reconstructed $W$ boson and exploiting the charge correlation between this muon and $W$ boson decay lepton to perform a nearly model-independent background subtraction. We measure the fraction of $W$+$c$-jet events in the inclusive $W$+jets sample for jet $p_{T}>20$ GeV and pseudorapidity $|\eta|<2.5$ to be 0.074$\pm0.019$(stat.)$\pm^{0.012}_{0.014}$(syst.), in agreement with theoretical predictions. The probability that background fluctuations could produce the observed fraction of $W$+$c$-jet events is estimated to be $2.5\times 10^{-4}$, which corresponds to a 3.5 $\sigma$ statistical significance.Comment: submitted to Physics Letters

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362