The effect of climate type on timescales of drought propagation in an ensemble of global hydrological models

Drought is a natural hazard that occurs at many temporal and spatial scales and has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts across the globe. The impacts of drought change as drought evolves from precipitation deficits to deficits in soil moisture or streamflow. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from meteorological drought to soil moisture drought and from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. We did this by cross-correlating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) against standardized indices (SIs) of soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow from an ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by a consistent meteorological dataset. Drought propagation is strongly related to climate types, occurring at sub-seasonal timescales in tropical climates and at up to multi-annual timescales in continental and arid climates. Winter droughts are usually related to longer SPI accumulation periods than summer droughts, especially in continental and tropical savanna climates. The difference between the seasons is likely due to winter snow cover in the former and distinct wet and dry seasons in the latter. Model structure appears to play an important role in model variability, as drought propagation to soil moisture drought is slower in land surface models (LSMs) than in global hydrological models, but propagation to hydrological drought is faster in land surface models than in global hydrological models. The propagation time from SPI to hydrological drought in the models was evaluated against observed data at 127 in situ streamflow stations. On average, errors between observed and modeled drought propagation timescales are small and the model ensemble mean is preferred over the use of a single model. Nevertheless, there is ample opportunity for improvement as substantial differences in drought propagation are found at 10&thinsp;% of the study sites. A better understanding and representation of drought propagation in models may help improve seasonal drought forecasting as well as constrain drought variability under future climate scenarios.</p

The potential of global reanalysis datasets in identifying flood events in Southern Africa

Sufficient and accurate hydro-meteorological data are essential to manage water resources. Recently developed global reanalysis datasets have significant potential in providing these data, especially in regions such as Southern Africa that are both vulnerable and data poor. These global reanalysis datasets have, however, not yet been exhaustively validated and it is thus unclear to what extent these are able to adequately capture the climatic variability of water resources, in particular for extreme events such as floods. This article critically assesses the potential of a recently developed global Water Resources Reanalysis (WRR) dataset developed in the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (EU-FP7) eartH2Observe (E2O) project for identifying floods, focussing on the occurrence of floods in the Limpopo River basin in Southern Africa. The discharge outputs of seven global models and ensemble mean of those models as available in the WRR dataset are analysed and compared against two benchmarks of flood events in the Limpopo River basin. The first benchmark is based on observations from the available stations, while the second is developed based on flood events that have led to damages as reported in global databases of damaging flood events. Results show that, while the WRR dataset provides useful data for detecting the occurrence of flood events in the Limpopo River basin, variation exists amongst the global models regarding their capability to identify the magnitude of those events. The study also reveals that the models are better able to capture flood events at stations with a large upstream catchment area. Improved performance for most models is found for the 0.25° resolution global model, when compared to the lower-resolution 0.5° models, thus underlining the added value of increased-resolution global models. The skill of the global hydrological models (GHMs) in identifying the severity of flood events in poorly gauged basins such as the Limpopo can be used to estimate the impacts of those events using the benchmark of reported damaging flood events developed at the basin level, though this could be improved if further details on location and impacts are included in disaster databases. Large-scale models such as those included in the WRR dataset are used by both global and continental forecasting systems, and this study sheds light on the potential these have in providing information useful for local-scale flood risk management. In conclusion, this study offers valuable insights in the applicability of global reanalysis data for identifying impacting flood events in data-sparse regions.</p

Human impact parameterizations in global hydrological models improves estimates of monthly discharges and hydrological extremes: a multi-model validation study

Human activities have a profound influence on river discharge, hydrological extremes, and water-related hazards. In this study, we compare the results of five state-of-the-art global hydrological models (GHMs) with observations to examine the role of human impact parameterizations (HIP) in the simulation of the mean, high, and low flows. The analysis is performed for 471 gauging stations across the globe and for the period 1971-2010. We find that the inclusion of HIP improves the performance of GHMs, both in managed and near-natural catchments. For near-natural catchments, the improvement in performance results from improvements in incoming discharges from upstream managed catchments. This finding is robust across GHMs, although the level of improvement and reasons for improvement vary greatly by GHM. The inclusion of HIP leads to a significant decrease in the bias of long-term mean monthly discharge in 36-73% of the studied catchments, and an improvement in modelled hydrological variability in 31-74% of the studied catchments. Including HIP in the GHMs also leads to an improvement in the simulation of hydrological extremes, compared to when HIP is excluded. Whilst the inclusion of HIP leads to decreases in simulated high-flows, it can lead to either increases or decreases in low-flows. This is due to the relative importance of the timing of return flows and reservoir operations and their associated uncertainties. Even with the inclusion of HIP, we find that model performance still not optimal. This highlights the need for further research linking the human management and hydrological domains, especially in those areas with a dominant human impact. The large variation in performance between GHMs, regions, and performance indicators, calls for a careful selection of GHMs, model components, and evaluation metrics in future model applications

Perceptions of surgical specialists in general surgery, orthopaedic surgery, urology and gynaecology on teaching endoscopic surgery in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND: Specific training in endoscopic skills and procedures has become a necessity for profession with embedded endoscopic techniques in their surgical palette. Previous research indicates endoscopic skills training to be inadequate, both from subjective (resident interviews) and objective (skills measurement) viewpoint. Surprisingly, possible shortcomings in endoscopic resident education have never been measured from the perspective of those individuals responsible for resident training, e.g. the program directors. Therefore, a nation-wide survey was conducted to inventory current endoscopic training initiatives and its possible shortcomings among all program directors of the surgical specialties in the Netherlands. METHODS: Program directors for general surgery, orthopaedic surgery, gynaecology and urology were surveyed using a validated 25-item questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 113 program directors responded (79%). The respective response percentages were 73.6% for general surgeons, 75% for orthopaedic surgeon, 90.9% for urologists and 68.2% for gynaecologists. According to the findings, 35% of general surgeons were concerned about whether residents are properly skilled endoscopically upon completion of training. Among the respondents, 34.6% were unaware of endoscopic training initiatives. The general and orthopaedic surgeons who were aware of these initiatives estimated the number of training hours to be satisfactory, whereas the urologists and gynaecologists estimated training time to be unsatisfactory. Type and duration of endoscopic skill training appears to be heterogeneous, both within and between the specialties. Program directors all perceive virtual reality simulation to be a highly effective training method, and a multimodality training approach to be key. Respondents agree that endoscopic skills education should ideally be coordinated according to national consensus and guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: A delicate balance exists between training hours and clinical working hours during residency. Primarily, a re-allocation of available training hours, aimed at core-endoscopic basic and advanced procedures, tailored to the needs of the resident and his or her phase of training is in place. The professions need to define which basic and advanced endoscopic procedures are to be trained, by whom, and by what outcome standards. According to the majority of program directors, virtual reality (VR) training needs to be integrated in procedural endoscopic training course

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Modulatory effects of heparin and short-length oligosaccharides of heparin on the metastasis and growth of LMD MDA-MB 231 breast cancer cells in vivo

Expression of the chemokine receptor CXCR4 allows breast cancer cells to migrate towards specific metastatic target sites which constitutively express CXCL12. In this study, we determined whether this interaction could be disrupted using short-chain length heparin oligosaccharides. Radioligand competition binding assays were performed using a range of heparin oligosaccharides to compete with polymeric heparin or heparan sulphate binding to I125 CXCL12. Heparin dodecasaccharides were found to be the minimal chain length required to efficiently bind CXCL12 (71% inhibition; P<0.001). These oligosaccharides also significantly inhibited CXCL12-induced migration of CXCR4-expressing LMD MDA-MB 231 breast cancer cells. In addition, heparin dodecasaccharides were found to have less anticoagulant activity than either a smaller quantity of polymeric heparin or a similar amount of the low molecular weight heparin pharmaceutical product, Tinzaparin. When given subcutaneously in a SCID mouse model of human breast cancer, heparin dodecasaccharides had no effect on the number of lung metastases, but did however inhibit (P<0.05) tumour growth (lesion area) compared to control groups. In contrast, polymeric heparin significantly inhibited both the number (P<0.001) and area of metastases, suggesting a differing mechanism for the action of polymeric and heparin-derived oligosaccharides in the inhibition of tumour growth and metastases

Cause of Death and Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Anticoagulated Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation : Data From ROCKET AF

M. Kaste on työryhmän ROCKET AF Steering Comm jäsen.Background-Atrial fibrillation is associated with higher mortality. Identification of causes of death and contemporary risk factors for all-cause mortality may guide interventions. Methods and Results-In the Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation (ROCKET AF) study, patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were randomized to rivaroxaban or dose-adjusted warfarin. Cox proportional hazards regression with backward elimination identified factors at randomization that were independently associated with all-cause mortality in the 14 171 participants in the intention-to-treat population. The median age was 73 years, and the mean CHADS(2) score was 3.5. Over 1.9 years of median follow-up, 1214 (8.6%) patients died. Kaplan-Meier mortality rates were 4.2% at 1 year and 8.9% at 2 years. The majority of classified deaths (1081) were cardiovascular (72%), whereas only 6% were nonhemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. No significant difference in all-cause mortality was observed between the rivaroxaban and warfarin arms (P=0.15). Heart failure (hazard ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.33-1.70, P= 75 years (hazard ratio 1.69, 95% CI 1.51-1.90, P Conclusions-In a large population of patients anticoagulated for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, approximate to 7 in 10 deaths were cardiovascular, whereasPeer reviewe