Assessing habitat loss, fragmentation and ecological connectivity in Luxembourg to support spatial planning

The increasing global population requires new infrastructure and urban development, and these land use changes have an impact on habitats and their ecological connectivity. To anticipate and minimise these impacts, environmental and urban planners require tools and methods that they can use at early planning stages. This paper investigates and selects landscape ecology techniques that can be used by planners to assess the effects in terms of changes in habitat loss, fragmentation and ecological connectivity due to expected land use changes. The selected techniques were tested in Luxembourg. Twelve landscape metrics, four connectivity indices, and one connectivity model were selected based on their straightforwardness, widespread application, and accessibility. Land cover maps and proposed areas of urban development up to 2030 were used as input data, together with adapted resistance surfaces from previous studies and a matrix of presence/absence for six target species. The combined analysis reveals a trend of increasing habitat fragmentation and loss of habitats, as well as a reduction of ecological connectivity with regard to all the targeted species, and suggests that this trend will likely continue in the near future. The selected landscape metrics, connectivity indices, the connectivity model and the software used to run them makes the abovementioned techniques easy to use by non-experts, and their combination helps to reduce some of the limitations of each individual technique. Both aspects might be useful in order to mainstream the use of landscape ecology techniques in spatial planning processes

Modelling the net environmental and economic impacts of urban nature-based solutions by combining ecosystem services, system dynamics and life cycle thinking: An application to urban forests

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are gaining relevance as sustainable urban actions because of their potential to provide multiple benefits in the form of ecosystem services (ES), and thus mitigate urban challenges. This paper presents an original semi-dynamic modelling framework that simultaneously considers i) ES supply and demand dynamics, ii) negative environmental impacts, externalities, and financial costs derived from NBS, and iii) life cycle NBS impacts beyond the use phase. Compared to other models, it also aims to be valuable for urban planning actions at site level, i.e., for evaluating the net impacts of specific urban NBS projects. To validate the modelling framework, a proof-of-concept model for urban forests is developed and tested for a case study in Madrid (Spain). The modelling framework is split in two interrelated parts: foreground (dynamic modelling) and background (static modelling). In the foreground, the environmental impacts derived from the use phase of an NBS project are quantified considering its spatio-temporal dynamism, by making use of system dynamics. In the background, the environmental impacts derived from the rest of the life cycle phases of the NBS are quantified making use of steady state life cycle impact assessment. The net economic impact of the NBS project, considering both financial values and externalities, is eventually calculated in the background encompassing all the life cycle phases. Results from the case study illustrate how planning, design, and management decisions over the entire life cycle of an urban forest can influence the net environmental and economic performance of this type of NBS. A discussion is provided to inform on how the modelling framework can help moving beyond the state-of-the-art, and how the derived model can be used for sustainability assessments of urban NBS projects

Nexus between nature-based solutions, ecosystem services and urban challenges

Nature-based Solutions (NBS) are increasingly promoted to support sustainable and resilient urban planning. However, design and planning urban NBS targeted at the needs of the local context require knowledge about the causal relationships between NBS, ecosystem services (ES) and urban challenges (UC) This paper aims at contributing to this knowledge, by systematically identifying nexuses (i.e. qualitative links) between UC, ES and NBS, and describing plausible causal relationships. A conceptual UC-ES-NBS criteria framework was built, and used to guide a two-step systematic literature review on current UC and on the supply of ES by urban NBS. This was followed by a non-systematic literature review, which complemented the previous one by unveiling knowledge gaps on the biophysical and social processes and attributes on which specific ES classes depend. The non-systematic review was also used to identify additional NBS. The UC review identified 18 UC and 58 sub-challenges, and illustrated which UC were more studied, according to the type of literature and environmental and socio-economic attributes of urban contexts. The ES review led to the development of an urban NBS classification, and supported the identification of UC-ES and ES-NBS nexuses, which were analysed and classified into four groups of causal relationship. For the nexuses identified as direct plausible causal relationship, the main processes and attributes on which the supply of specific ES depend were pointed out. Relationships between UC, ES, NBS, processes, and attributes were represented in the form of network diagrams. Our results can be used to support urban policies aimed at mainstreaming NBS and as a basis to further understand UC-ES-NBS relationships

Edge Diffraction, Trace Formulae and the Cardioid Billiard

We study the effect of edge diffraction on the semiclassical analysis of two dimensional quantum systems by deriving a trace formula which incorporates paths hitting any number of vertices embedded in an arbitrary potential. This formula is used to study the cardioid billiard, which has a single vertex. The formula works well for most of the short orbits we analyzed but fails for a few diffractive orbits due to a breakdown in the formalism for certain geometries. We extend the symbolic dynamics to account for diffractive orbits and use it to show that in the presence of parity symmetry the trace formula decomposes in an elegant manner such that for the cardioid billiard the diffractive orbits have no effect on the odd spectrum. Including diffractive orbits helps resolve peaks in the density of even states but does not appear to affect their positions. An analysis of the level statistics shows no significant difference between spectra with and without diffraction.Comment: 25 pages, 12 Postscript figures. Published versio

Detection of the blazar S4 0954+65 at very-high-energy with the MAGIC telescopes during an exceptionally high optical state

The very high energy (VHE ¿ 100 GeV) -ray MAGIC observations of the blazar S4 0954+65, were triggered by an exceptionally high flux state of emission in the optical. This blazar has a disputed redshift of z = 0.368 or z ¿ 0.45 and an uncertain classification among blazar subclasses. The exceptional source state described here makes for an excellent opportunity to understand physical processes in the jet of S4 0954+65 and thus contribute to its classification. Methods. We investigated the multiwavelength (MWL) light curve and spectral energy distribution (SED) of the S4 0954+65 blazar during an enhanced state in February 2015 and have put it in context with possible emission scenarios. We collected photometric data in radio, optical, X-ray, and ¿-ray. We studied both the optical polarization and the inner parsec-scale jet behavior with 43 GHz data. Results. Observations with the MAGIC telescopes led to the first detection of S4 0954+65 at VHE. Simultaneous data with Fermi-LAT at high energy ¿-ray(HE, 100 MeV < E < 100 GeV) also show a period of increased activity. Imaging at 43 GHz reveals the emergence of a new feature in the radio jet in coincidence with the VHE flare. Simultaneous monitoring of the optical polarization angle reveals a rotation of approximately 100. Conclusions. The high emission state during the flare allows us to compile the simultaneous broadband SED and to characterize it in the scope of blazar jet emission models. The broadband spectrum can be modeled with an emission mechanism commonly invoked for flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs), that is, inverse Compton scattering on an external soft photon field from the dust torus, also known as external Compton. The light curve and SED phenomenology is consistent with an interpretation of a blob propagating through a helical structured magnetic field and eventually crossing a standing shock in the jet, a scenario typically applied to FSRQs and low-frequency peaked BL Lac objects (LBL). © ESO 2018.The financial support of the German BMBF and MPG, the Italian INFN and INAF, the Swiss National Fund SNF, the ERDF under the Spanish MINECO (FPA2015-69818-P, FPA2012-36668, FPA2015-68378-P, FPA2015-69210-C6-2-R, FPA2015-69210-C6-4-R, FPA2015-69210-C6-6-R, AYA2015-71042-P, AYA2016-76012-C3-1-P, ESP2015-71662-C2-2-P, CSD2009-00064), and the Japanese JSPS and MEXT is gratefully acknowledged. This work was also supported by the Spanish Centro de Excelencia “Severo Ochoa” SEV-2012-0234 and SEV-2015-0548, and Unidad de Excelencia “María de Maeztu” MDM-2014-0369, by the Croatian Science Foundation (HrZZ) Project IP-2016-06-9782 and the University of Rijeka Project 13.12.1.3.02, by the DFG Collaborative Research Centers SFB823/C4 and SFB876/C3, the Polish National Research Centre grant UMO-2016/22/M/ST9/00382 and by the Brazilian MCTIC, CNPq, and FAPERJ. IA acknowledges support by a Ramón y Cajal grant of the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain. The research at the IAA–CSIC was supported in part by the MINECO through grants AYA2016–80889–P, AYA2013–40825–P, and AYA2010–14844, and by the regional government of Andalucía through grant P09–FQM–4784.Peer Reviewe

Detection of persistent VHE gamma-ray emission from PKS 1510-089 by the MAGIC telescopes during low states between 2012 and 2017

PKS 1510-089 is a flat spectrum radio quasar strongly variable in the optical and GeV range. To date, very high-energy (VHE, > 100 GeV) emission has been observed from this source either during long high states of optical and GeV activity or during short flares. Aims. We search for low-state VHE gamma-ray emission from PKS 1510-089. We characterize and model the source in a broadband context, which would provide a baseline over which high states and flares could be better understood. Methods. PKS 1510-089 has been monitored by the MAGIC telescopes since 2012. We use daily binned Fermi-LAT flux measurements of PKS 1510-089 to characterize the GeV emission and select the observation periods of MAGIC during low state of activity. For the selected times we compute the average radio, IR, optical, UV, X-ray, and gamma-ray emission to construct a low-state spectral energy distribution of the source. The broadband emission is modeled within an external Compton scenario with a stationary emission region through which plasma and magnetic fields are flowing. We also perform the emission-model-independent calculations of the maximum absorption in the broad line region (BLR) using two different models. Results. The MAGIC telescopes collected 75 hr of data during times when the Fermi-LAT flux measured above 1 GeV was below 3? × 10 -8 ? cm -2 ? s -1 , which is the threshold adopted for the definition of a low gamma-ray activity state. The data show a strongly significant (9.5¿) VHE gamma-ray emission at the level of (4.27 ± 0.61 stat ) × 10 -12 ? cm -2 ? s -1 above 150 GeV, a factor of 80 lower than the highest flare observed so far from this object. Despite the lower flux, the spectral shape is consistent with earlier detections in the VHE band. The broadband emission is compatible with the external Compton scenario assuming a large emission region located beyond the BLR. For the first time the gamma-ray data allow us to place a limit on the location of the emission region during a low gamma-ray state of a FSRQ. For the used model of the BLR, the 95% confidence level on the location of the emission region allows us to place it at a distance > 74% of the outer radius of the BLR. © ESO 2018.The financial support of the German BMBF and MPG, the Italian INFN and INAF, the Swiss National Fund SNF, the ERDF under the Spanish MINECO (FPA2015-69818-P, FPA2012-36668, FPA2015-68378-P, FPA2015-69210-C6-2-R, FPA2015-69210-C6-4-R, FPA2015-69210-C6-6-R, AYA2015-71042-P, AYA2016-76012-C3-1-P, ESP2015-71662-C2-2-P, CSD2009-00064), and the Japanese JSPS and MEXT is gratefully acknowledged. This work was also supported by the Spanish Centro de Exce-lencia “Severo Ochoa” SEV-2012-0234 and SEV-2015-0548, and Unidad de Excelencia “María de Maeztu” MDM-2014-0369, by the Croatian Science Foundation (HrZZ) Project IP-2016-06-9782 and the University of Rijeka Project 13.12.1.3.02, by the DFG Collaborative Research Centers SFB823/C4 and SFB876/C3, the Polish National Research Centre grant UMO-2016/22/M/ST9/00382, and by the Brazilian MCTIC, CNPq and FAPERJ. IA acknowledges support from a Ramón y Cajal grant of the Ministerio de Economía, Industria, y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain. Acquisition and reduction of the POLAMI and MAPCAT data was supported in part by MINECO through grants AYA2010-14844, AYA2013-40825-P, and AYA2016-80889-P, and by the Regional Government of Andalucía through grant P09-FQM-4784.Peer Reviewe

Discovery of TeV γ-ray emission from the neighbourhood of the supernova remnant G24.7+0.6 by MAGIC

SNR G24.7+0.6 is a 9.5 kyrs radio and gamma-ray supernova remnant evolving in a dense medium. In the GeV regime, SNR G24.7+0.6 (3FHL J1834.1– 0706e/FGES J1834.1–0706) shows a hard spectral index (Γ∼2) up to 200 GeV, which makes it a good candidate to be observed with Cherenkov telescopes such as MAGIC. We observed the field of view of SNR G24.7+0.6 with the MAGIC telescopes for a total of 31 hours. We detect very high energy γ-ray emission from an extended source located 0.34 degree away from the center of the radio SNR. The new source, named MAGIC J1835–069 is detected up to 5 TeV, and its spectrum is well-represented by a power-law function with spectral index of 2.74 ± 0.08. The complexity of the region makes the identification of the origin of the very-high energy emission difficult, however the spectral agreement with the LAT source and overlapping position at less than 1.5 sigma point to a common origin. We analysed 8 years of Fermi-LAT data to extend the spectrum of the source down to 60 MeV. Fermi-LAT and MAGIC spectra overlap within errors and the global broad band spectrum is described by a power-law with exponential cutoff at 1.9 ± 0.5 TeV. The detected γ-ray emission can be interpreted as the results of proton-proton interaction between the supernova and the CO-rich surrounding

Postoperative outcomes in oesophagectomy with trainee involvement

BACKGROUND: The complexity of oesophageal surgery and the significant risk of morbidity necessitates that oesophagectomy is predominantly performed by a consultant surgeon, or a senior trainee under their supervision. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of trainee involvement in oesophagectomy on postoperative outcomes in an international multicentre setting. METHODS: Data from the multicentre Oesophago-Gastric Anastomosis Study Group (OGAA) cohort study were analysed, which comprised prospectively collected data from patients undergoing oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer between April 2018 and December 2018. Procedures were grouped by the level of trainee involvement, and univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to compare patient outcomes across groups. RESULTS: Of 2232 oesophagectomies from 137 centres in 41 countries, trainees were involved in 29.1 per cent of them (n = 650), performing only the abdominal phase in 230, only the chest and/or neck phases in 130, and all phases in 315 procedures. For procedures with a chest anastomosis, those with trainee involvement had similar 90-day mortality, complication and reoperation rates to consultant-performed oesophagectomies (P = 0.451, P = 0.318, and P = 0.382, respectively), while anastomotic leak rates were significantly lower in the trainee groups (P = 0.030). Procedures with a neck anastomosis had equivalent complication, anastomotic leak, and reoperation rates (P = 0.150, P = 0.430, and P = 0.632, respectively) in trainee-involved versus consultant-performed oesophagectomies, with significantly lower 90-day mortality in the trainee groups (P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Trainee involvement was not found to be associated with significantly inferior postoperative outcomes for selected patients undergoing oesophagectomy. The results support continued supervised trainee involvement in oesophageal cancer surgery

A cut-off in the TeV gamma-ray spectrum of the SNR Cassiopeia A

It is widely believed that the bulk of the Galactic cosmic rays is accelerated in supernova remnants (SNRs). However, no observational evidence of the presence of particles of PeV energies in SNRs has yet been found. The young historical SNR Cassiopeia A (Cas A) appears as one of the best candidates to study acceleration processes. Between 2014 December and 2016 October, we observed Cas A with the MAGIC telescopes, accumulating 158 h of good quality data. We derived the spectrum of the source from 100 GeV to 10 TeV. We also analysed 3c8 yr of Fermi-LAT to obtain the spectral shape between 60 MeV and 500 GeV. The spectra measured by the LAT and MAGIC telescopes are compatible within the errors and show a clear turn-off (4.6\u3c3) at the highest energies, which can be described with an exponential cut-off at E_c = 3.5(^{+1.6}_{-1.0})_{stat} (^{+0.8}_{-0.9})_{sys} TeV. The gamma-ray emission from 60 MeV to 10 TeV can be attributed to a population of high-energy protons with a spectral index of 3c2.2 and an energy cut-off at 3c10 TeV. This result indicates that Cas A is not contributing to the high energy ( 3cPeV) cosmic ray sea in a significant manner at the present moment. A one-zone leptonic model fails to reproduce by itself the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution. Besides, if a non-negligible fraction of the flux seen by MAGIC is produced by leptons, the radiation should be emitted in a region with a low magnetic field (B\u2a85180 \u3bcG) like in the reverse shock

Convalescent plasma in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (RECOVERY): a randomised controlled, open-label, platform trial

Background: Many patients with COVID-19 have been treated with plasma containing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Methods: This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]) is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. The trial is underway at 177 NHS hospitals from across the UK. Eligible and consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either usual care alone (usual care group) or usual care plus high-titre convalescent plasma (convalescent plasma group). The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, 50189673, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04381936. Findings: Between May 28, 2020, and Jan 15, 2021, 11558 (71%) of 16287 patients enrolled in RECOVERY were eligible to receive convalescent plasma and were assigned to either the convalescent plasma group or the usual care group. There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the two groups: 1399 (24%) of 5795 patients in the convalescent plasma group and 1408 (24%) of 5763 patients in the usual care group died within 28 days (rate ratio 1·00, 95% CI 0·93–1·07; p=0·95). The 28-day mortality rate ratio was similar in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including in those patients without detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at randomisation. Allocation to convalescent plasma had no significant effect on the proportion of patients discharged from hospital within 28 days (3832 [66%] patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 3822 [66%] patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·94–1·03; p=0·57). Among those not on invasive mechanical ventilation at randomisation, there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients meeting the composite endpoint of progression to invasive mechanical ventilation or death (1568 [29%] of 5493 patients in the convalescent plasma group vs 1568 [29%] of 5448 patients in the usual care group; rate ratio 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·05; p=0·79). Interpretation: In patients hospitalised with COVID-19, high-titre convalescent plasma did not improve survival or other prespecified clinical outcomes. Funding: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research