Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small

Changing Northern Hemisphere storm tracks in an ensemble of IPCC climate change simulations

Winter storm-track activity over the Northern Hemisphere and its changes in a greenhouse gas scenario (the Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B forcing) are computed from an ensemble of 23 single runs from 16 coupled global climate models (CGCMs). All models reproduce the general structures of the observed climatological storm-track pattern under present-day forcing conditions. Ensemble mean changes resulting from anthropogenic forcing include an increase of baroclinic wave activity over the eastern North Atlantic, amounting to 5%–8% by the end of the twenty-first century. Enhanced activity is also found over the Asian continent and over the North Pacific near the Aleutian Islands. At high latitudes and over parts of the subtropics, activity is reduced. Variations of the individual models around the ensemble average signal are not small, with a median of the pattern correlation near r = 0.5. There is, however, no evidence for a link between deviations in present-day climatology and deviations with respect to climate change

Influence of orbital forcing and solar activity on water isotopes in precipitation during the mid and late Holocene

In this study we investigate the impact of mid and late Holocene orbital forcing and solar activity on variations of the oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation. Our study is based on a set of novel climate simulations performed with the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso enhanced by explicit water isotope diagnostics. From the performed model experiments we derive the following major results: (1) the response of both orbital and solar forcing lead to changes in surface temperatures and δ18O in precipitation with similar magnitudes during the mid and late Holocene. (2) Past δ18O anomalies correspond to changing temperatures in the orbital driven simulations. This does not hold true if an additional solar forcing is added. (3) Two orbital driven mid Holocene experiments, simulating the mean climate state approximately 5000 and 6000 yr ago, yield very similar results. However, if an identical additional solar activity-induced forcing is added, the simulated changes of surface temperatures as well as δ18O between both periods differ. From our findings we conclude that the Holocene variability of δ18O in precipitation, as stored in many paleoclimate archives, is rather complex to understand since the combined effect of different external forcings on δ18O in precipitation is non-linear

Simulated northern hemispheric storm tracks of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception

International audienceClimate simulations of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception have been performed by forcing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model with insolation patterns of these periods. The parameters of the Earth's orbit have been set to conditions of 125 000 and 115 000 years before present (yr BP). Compared to today, these dates represent periods with enhanced and weakened seasonality of insolation on the northern hemisphere. Here we analyze the simulated change in winter storm tracks. The change in the orbital configuration has a strong impact on the meridional temperature gradients and therefore on strength and location of the storm tracks. The North Atlantic storm track is strenghtened, shifted northward and extends further to the east in the simulation for the Eemian at 125 kyr BP. As one consequence, the northern parts of Europe experience an increase in winter precipitation. The frequency of winter storm days increases over large parts of the North Atlantic. Opposite but weaker changes in storm track activity are simulated for 115 kyr BP

Variations of NAO based on long time-series, data reconstructions and simulations of the last 500 years

Rekonstruktionen des vergangenen Klimas sowie Simulationen mit gekoppelten Atmosphäre-Ozean Modellen der allgemeinen Zirkulation liefern die Voraussetzungen zur Untersuchung der niederfrequenten Variabilität der Nord atlantischen Oszillation (NAO). Mit Hilfe von Modellsimulationen kann ein Großteil der langzeitlichen Variabilität durch interne Atmosphäre-Ozean-Wechselwirkungen erklärt werden. Darüber hinaus liefern Simulationen aber auch Hinweise darauf, dass externe Faktoren eine Rolle spielen. Während der „Kleinen Eiszeit“ sind Schwankungen der solaren sowie der vulkanischen Aktivität von Bedeutung. So werden Phasen verminderter solarer Einstrahlung, wie beispielsweise das Maunder-Minimum, mit einer negativen NAO in Verbindung gebracht. Auf der anderen Seite wird der anthropogen bedingte Anstieg von Treibhausgaskonzentrationen seit Beginn der Industrialisierung oftmals in Verbindung mit einer Verschiebung der NAO in eine positive Phase diskutiert.Climate reconstructions and simulations with general atmosphere-ocean circulation models are the basis to investigate the low-frequency behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Utilizing model simulations, a large part of the low-frequency variability can be attributed to internal atmosphere-ocean interaction. Moreover, simulations suggest that external forcing functions play a role, e.g., during the Little Ice Age where variations of the solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions are important. Periods with reduced solar irradiance, like the Maunder Minimum, are related to a negative phase of the NAO. However, the anthropogenic increase of greenhouse gases since the industrialization is often discussed to be connected to a shift of the NAO to a more positive phase

and the last glacial inception

Abstract. Climate simulations of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception have been performed by forcing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model with insolation patterns of these periods. The parameters of the Earth’s orbit have been set to conditions of 125 000 and 115 000 years before present (yr BP). Compared to today, these dates represent periods with enhanced and weakened seasonality of insolation in the northern hemisphere. Here we analyse the simulated change in northern hemisphere winter storm tracks. The change in the orbital configuration has a strong impact on the meridional temperature gradients and therefore on strength and location of the storm tracks. The North Atlantic storm track is strengthened, shifted northward and extends further to the east in the simulation for the Eemian at 125 kyr BP. As one consequence, the northern parts of Europe experience an increase in winter precipitation. The frequency of winter storm days increases over large parts of the North Atlantic including the British Isles and the coastal zones of north-western Europe. Opposite but weaker changes in storm track activity are simulated for 115 kyr BP.

Model results of orbital forcing and solar activity during the Holocene in NetCDF format

In this study we investigate the impact of mid- and late Holocene orbital forcing and solar activity on variations of the oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation. The investigation is motivated by a recently published speleothem d18O record from the well-monitored Bunker Cave in Germany. The record reveals some high variability on multi-centennial to millennial scales that does not linearly correspond to orbital forcing. Our model study is based on a set of novel climate simulations performed with the atmosphere general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso enhanced by explicit water isotope diagnostics. From the performed model experiments, we derive the following major results: (1) the response of both orbital and solar forcing lead to changes in surface temperatures and d18O in precipitation with similar magnitudes during the mid- and late Holocene. (2) Past d18O anomalies correspond to changing temperatures in the orbital driven simulations. This does not hold true if an additional solar forcing is added. (3) Two orbital driven mid-Holocene experiments, simulating the mean climate state approximately 5000 and 6000 yr ago, yield very similar results. However, if an identical additional solar activity-induced forcing is added, the simulated changes of surface temperatures as well as d18O between both periods differ. We conclude from our simulation results that non-linear effects and feedbacks of the orbital and solar activity forcing substantially alter the d18O in precipitation pattern and its relation to temperature change

Transient climate simulations from the Maunder Minimum to present day: Role of the stratosphere

Transient climate simulations are performed covering the period from 1630 to 2000. A vertically extended version of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is used, including a detailed representation of the stratosphere. One simulation is driven by changes in total solar irradiance due to solar activity as well as volcanic eruptions and changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. A second simulation additionally includes changes in short-wave heating due to prescribed photochemical changes in ozone. The simulations are compared with reconstructions and other simulations employing less resolved stratosphere. The inclusion of the higher resolved stratosphere plays only a moderate role for the simulated climate variability on the hemispheric scale. Larger implications are found for regional scales. Both simulations reveal a shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation toward a more positive phase from the Maunder Minimum to present day, mainly attributed to anthropogenic increase in concentration of well-mixed GHG. Increase in GHG is related to a more disturbed stratospheric polar vortex resulting in an only moderate strengthening of tropospheric westerlies over Europe compared with the tropospheric version of the model. On multidecadal to centennial time scales the stratospheric solar forcing substantially contributes to the climate change signal in the stratosphere, and there is clear evidence for an impact on the tropospheric circulation