Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination: Comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models

Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research

Potential Future Impact of a Partially Effective HIV Vaccine in a Southern African Setting.

It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy-both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected-in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings

Mining social mixing patterns for infectious disease models based on a two-day population survey in Belgium

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Until recently, mathematical models of person to person infectious diseases transmission had to make assumptions on transmissions enabled by personal contacts by estimating the so-called WAIFW-matrix. In order to better inform such estimates, a population based contact survey has been carried out in Belgium over the period March-May 2006. In contrast to other European surveys conducted simultaneously, each respondent recorded contacts over two days. Special attention was given to holiday periods, and respondents with large numbers of professional contacts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants kept a paper diary with information on their contacts over two different days. A contact was defined as a two-way conversation of at least three words in each others proximity. The contact information included the age of the contact, gender, location, duration, frequency, and whether or not touching was involved.</p> <p>For data analysis, we used association rules and classification trees. Weighted generalized estimating equations were used to analyze contact frequency while accounting for the correlation between contacts reported on the two different days.</p> <p>A contact surface, expressing the average number of contacts between persons of different ages was obtained by a bivariate smoothing approach and the relation to the so-called next-generation matrix was established.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>People mostly mixed with people of similar age, or with their offspring, their parents and their grandparents. By imputing professional contacts, the average number of daily contacts increased from 11.84 to 15.70. The number of reported contacts depended heavily on the household size, class size for children and number of professional contacts for adults. Adults living with children had on average 2 daily contacts more than adults living without children. In the holiday period, the daily contact frequency for children and adolescents decreased with about 19% while a similar observation is made for adults in the weekend. These findings can be used to estimate the impact of school closure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conducted a diary based contact survey in Belgium to gain insights in social interactions relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. The resulting contact patterns are useful to improve estimating crucial parameters for infectious disease transmission models.</p

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands; the results of a consensus model

Contains fulltext : 96770.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Each year rotavirus gastroenteritis results in thousands of paediatric hospitalisations and primary care visits in the Netherlands. While two vaccines against rotavirus are registered, routine immunisation of infants has not yet been implemented. Existing cost-effectiveness studies showed inconsistent results for these vaccines because of lack of consensus on the impact. We aimed to investigate which factors had a major impact on cost-effectiveness and were primarily responsible for the large differences in previously estimated cost-effectiveness ratios. METHODS: Based on updated data on health outcomes and cost estimates, we re-assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine paediatric rotavirus vaccination within the National Immunization Program for the Netherlands. Two consensus meetings were organised with national and international experts in the field to achieve consensus and resolve potential controversies. RESULTS: It was estimated that rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands could avert 34,214 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis in children aged less than 5 years. Notably, 2,779 hospitalisations were averted of which 315 were extensions of existing hospital stays due to nosocomial rotavirus infection. With a threshold varying from 20K euro - 50K euro per QALY and according to the base-case scenario, the full vaccination costs per child leading to cost-effectiveness was euro 57.76 -euro 77.71. Results were sensitive to the inclusion of potential vaccine induced herd protection, QALY losses and number of deaths associated with rotavirus gastroenteritis. CONCLUSIONS: Our economic analysis indicates that inclusion of rotavirus vaccination in the Dutch National Immunization Program might be cost-effective depending on the cost of the vaccine and the impact of rotavirus gastroenteritis on children's quality of life

Modelling the Effects of Population Structure on Childhood Disease: The Case of Varicella

Realistic, individual-based models based on detailed census data are increasingly used to study disease transmission. Whether the rich structure of such models improves predictions is debated. This is studied here for the spread of varicella, a childhood disease, in a realistic population of children where infection occurs in the household, at school, or in the community at large. A methodology is first presented for simulating households with births and aging. Transmission probabilities were fitted for schools and community, which reproduced the overall cumulative incidence of varicella over the age range of 0–11 years old

Do pneumococcal conjugate vaccines provide any cross-protection against serotype 19A?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Introduction of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vCRM) in several countries has led to a rapid, significant drop in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in immunized children. In the United States and some other countries with high antibiotic use, a subsequent rise in serotype 19A IPD has been taken to indicate that the 19F conjugate in the vaccine provides no cross-protection against the immunologically related 19A.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>We systematically assessed the clinical efficacy and effectiveness of 19F-containing vaccines against 19A disease or nasopharyngeal carriage by searching English-language articles in the electronic databases PubMed, Current contents, Scopus, and Embase from 1985 to 2008. The vaccine efficacy and effectiveness point estimates were consistently positive for modest protection against 19A IPD and acute otitis media (AOM). However, statistical significance was not reached in any individual study. No consistent impact of 7vCRM on 19A nasopharyngeal colonization could be detected. These findings are discussed in context of immunogenicity analyses indicating that 7vCRM induces functionally active anti-19A antibodies after the booster dose, and that other 19F-containing vaccine formulations may elicit higher levels of such antibodies after both primary and booster doses.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Taken together, these results suggest that 19F-conjugates can provide some protection against 19A disease. The magnitude of this protection in a given setting will likely depend on several factors. These include the anti-19A immunogenicity of the specific vaccine formulation, the number of doses of that formulation needed to elicit the response, and the burden of 19A disease that occurs after those doses. It is possible that a modest protective effect may be obscured by the presence of countervailing selection pressures (such as high antibiotic use) that favor an increase in colonization with antibiotic-non-susceptible strains of 19A.</p

Determinants of high residual post-PCV13 pneumococcal vaccine-type carriage in Blantyre, Malawi:a modelling study

Background In November 2011, Malawi introduced the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) into the routine infant schedule. Four to 7 years after introduction (2015–2018), rolling prospective nasopharyngeal carriage surveys were performed in the city of Blantyre. Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccine serotypes (VT) remained higher than reported in high-income countries, and impact was asymmetric across age groups. Methods A dynamic transmission model was fit to survey data using a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo approach, to obtain insights into the determinants of post-PCV13 age-specific VT carriage. Results Accumulation of naturally acquired immunity with age and age-specific transmission potential were both key to reproducing the observed data. VT carriage reduction peaked sequentially over time, earlier in younger and later in older age groups. Estimated vaccine efficacy (protection against carriage) was 66.87% (95% CI 50.49–82.26%), similar to previous estimates. Ten-year projected vaccine impact (VT carriage reduction) among 0–9 years old was lower than observed in other settings, at 76.23% (CI 95% 68.02–81.96%), with sensitivity analyses demonstrating this to be mainly driven by a high local force of infection. Conclusions There are both vaccine-related and host-related determinants of post-PCV13 pneumococcal VT transmission in Blantyre with vaccine impact determined by an age-specific, local force of infection. These findings are likely to be generalisable to other Sub-Saharan African countries in which PCV impact on carriage (and therefore herd protection) has been lower than desired, and have implications for the interpretation of post-PCV carriage studies and future vaccination programs.</p

Non-human primate to human immunobridging to infer the protective effect of an Ebola virus vaccine candidate

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