The Covid-19 pandemic and Europe

This papers looks into the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the European Union. The current crisis found European economies in very different situations regarding their economic fundamentals and fiscal capacities to support their economies. Thus, the need for a strong EU level policy response emerged. Europe has learned its lessons from the previous crisis and acted decisively and in a coordinated fashion. The paper discusses these policy responses and some of the longer-term challenges of the current crisis

Fiscal indulgence in Central Europe: loss of the external anchor?

In recent years, fiscal performance in Central Europe has steadily deteriorated, in contrast to the improvement in the Baltics. This paper explores the determinants of such differences among countries on the path to EU accession. Regression estimates suggest that economic and institutional fundamentals do not provide a full explanation. An alternative explanation lies in the political economy of the accession process, and a game-theoretic model illustrates why a country with a stronger bargaining position might have an incentive to deviate from convergence to the Maastricht criteria. The model generates alternative fiscal policy regimesallowing for regime shiftsdepending on country characteristics and EU policies. --Fiscal policy,EU economic and monetary union,game-theoretic approach

Fiscal policy in the EU in the crisis: a model-based approach

This paper uses a multi region DSGE model with collateral constrained households and residential investment to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy stimulus measures in a credit crisis. The paper explores alternative scenarios which differ by the type of budgetary measure, its length, the degree of monetary accommodation and the level of international coordination. In particular we provide estimates for New EU Member States where we take into account two aspects. First, debt denomination in foreign currency and second, higher nominal interest rates, which makes it less likely that the Central Bank is restricted by the zero bound and will consequently not accommodate a fiscal stimulus. We also compare our results to other recent results obtained in the literature on fiscal policy which generally do not consider credit constrained households.Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Multiplier, Collateral Constraint, DSGE modelling

Navigare necesse est: piacok, válságok és a modelljeink

Az utóbbi másfél évtized példátlan kihívás elé állította a makrogazdasági politikai döntéshozatalt. A modern gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatal hosszú ideje különböző modellekre támaszkodott mind nemzeti, mind nemzetek feletti szinten. Azonban egyik standard modell sem látta előre az elmúlt másfél évtized jelentős válságait, illetve nem tudta leírni a válságokat követő kiigazítási folyamatok dinamikáját. Általában elmondható, hogy a széles körben használt alapmodellek számos feltételezéssel élnek, amelyek nem mindig érvényesek azokban a gazdaságokban, amelyekre alkalmazzák őket. Továbbá különösen gyengén teljesítenek válságos időszakban. Ez a rövid cikk áttekinti az ilyen modellek problémáit, és javasol egy egyszerű modellezési stratégiát, ami alkalmazható lenne olyan időkben, amikor a modellválasztás bizonytalansága megnő

loss of the external anchor?

In recent years, fiscal performance in Central Europe has steadily deteriorated, in contrast to the improvement in the Baltics. This paper explores the determinants of such differences among countries on the path to EU accession. Regression estimates suggest that economic and institutional fundamentals do not provide a full explanation. An alternative explanation lies in the political economy of the accession process, and a game-theoretic model illustrates why a country with a stronger bargaining position might have an incentive to deviate from convergence to the Maastricht criteria. The model generates alternative fiscal policy regimes—allowing for regime shifts—depending on country characteristics and EU policies

Twin Paradox and the logical foundation of relativity theory

We study the foundation of space-time theory in the framework of first-order logic (FOL). Since the foundation of mathematics has been successfully carried through (via set theory) in FOL, it is not entirely impossible to do the same for space-time theory (or relativity). First we recall a simple and streamlined FOL-axiomatization SpecRel of special relativity from the literature. SpecRel is complete with respect to questions about inertial motion. Then we ask ourselves whether we can prove usual relativistic properties of accelerated motion (e.g., clocks in acceleration) in SpecRel. As it turns out, this is practically equivalent to asking whether SpecRel is strong enough to "handle" (or treat) accelerated observers. We show that there is a mathematical principle called induction (IND) coming from real analysis which needs to be added to SpecRel in order to handle situations involving relativistic acceleration. We present an extended version AccRel of SpecRel which is strong enough to handle accelerated motion, in particular, accelerated observers. Among others, we show that the Twin Paradox becomes provable in AccRel, but it is not provable without IND.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figure

Szomatikus onkogén mutációk összehasonlító vizsgálata egészséges és tumoros pajzsmirigyszövetmintákban = Comprehensive examination of somatic oncogene mutation in normal and pathologic thyroid tissues

Az elmúlt években több munkacsoportnak sikerült olyan szomatikus mutációkat (BRAF, NRAS, HRAS, KRAS génekben) és génátrendeződéseket (RET/PTC, PAX8/PPAR-gamma) azonosítani, amelyek összefüggést mutatnak a pajzsmirigydaganatok kialakulásával. Jelen vizsgálatban 11 személy 22 (11 kóros és 11 betegségmentes) intraoperatív pajzsmirigy-szövetmintáit elemezték. A RAS géncsalád és a BRAF gének szomatikus egypontos nukleotid polimorfizmusait LigthCycler olvadáspontanalízis-módszerrel, míg a génátrendeződéseket valós idejű polimeráz láncreakció módszerével vizsgálták. A daganatos mintákban 3 BRAF-, 2 NRAS-, 1 HRAS-mutációt, valamint 1 RET/PTC1 átrendeződést találtak. Az eredmények megerősítik a nemzetközi adatokat, miszerint ezek az egypontos nukleotidpolimorfizmusok és génátrendeződések megtalálhatók a daganatos pajzsmirigyszövetekben. Valószínűsíthető, hogy ezen genetikai vizsgálatokkal kiegészült citológiai vizsgálat segítheti a malignus göbök azonosítását, illetve elképzelhető, hogy prognosztikai faktorként előre jelezhetik a későbbi daganatos átalakulást. Orv. Hetil., 2011, 152, 672–677. | It is established that numerous somatic oncogene mutation (BRAF, NRAS, HRAS, KRAS) and gene translocations (RET/PTC, PAX8/PPAR-gamma) are associated with the development of thyroid cancer. In this study 22 intraoperative thyroid tissue samples (11 pathologic and 11 normal) were examined. Somatic single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed by LigthCycler melting method, while translocations were identified by real-time polymerase chain reaction technique. In tumorous sample 3 BRAF, 2 NRAS and one HRAS mutations were found, as well as one RET/PTC1 translocation. Results confirm international data showing that these oncogene mutations and translocations are linked to thyroid cancer. Cytological examination completed with genetic data may support the diagnosis of thyroid malignancies. In addition, genetic alterations may indicate malignant transformation and may become prognostic factors in future. Orv. Hetil., 2011, 152, 672–677