Phase I of the surveillance for enteric fever in Asia project (SEAP): An overview and lessons learned

Objective: The objective of Phase I of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP), a multiphase surveillance study characterizing the burden of disease in South Asia, was to inform data collection for prospective surveillance and to capture clinical aspects of disease.Methods: Through a retrospective record review conducted at hospitals in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, we examined laboratory and clinical records to assess the culture positivity rate for Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi, age and sex distribution, and antimicrobial susceptability in each country.Results: Of all blood cultures performed in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, 1.5%, 0.43%, 2%, and 1.49%, respectively, were positive for S. Typhi and 0.24%, 0.1%, 0.5%, and 0.67%, respectively, were positive for S. Paratyphi. A higher proportion of laboratory-confirmed infections in Bangladesh and Pakistan were aged ≤5 years, while India and Nepal had a higher proportion of participants aged 15–25 years. In all countries, the sex of the majority of participants was male. The majority of isolates in all countries were resistant to fluoroquinolones, with a high proportion also resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole.Discussion: Enteric fever remains endemic in South Asia. Data generated by this study can help inform strategies for implementation and evaluation of prevention and control measures

Dural arteriovenous fistulas without cortical venous drainage:presentation, treatment, and outcomes

OBJECTIVE: Current evidence suggests that intracranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (dAVFs) without cortical venous drainage (CVD) have a benign clinical course. However, no large study has evaluated the safety and efficacy of current treatments and their impact over the natural history of dAVFs without CVD. METHODS: The authors conducted an analysis of the retrospectively collected multicenter Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research (CONDOR) database. Patient demographics and presenting symptoms, angiographic features of the dAVFs, and treatment outcomes of patients with Borden type I dAVFs were reviewed. Clinical and radiological follow-up information was assessed to determine rates of new intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) or nonhemorrhagic neurological deficit (NHND), worsening of venous hyperdynamic symptoms (VHSs), angiographic recurrence, and progression or spontaneous regression of dAVFs over time. RESULTS: A total of 342 patients/Borden type I dAVFs were identified. The mean patient age was 58.1 ± 15.6 years, and 62% were women. The mean follow-up time was 37.7 ± 54.3 months. Of 230 (67.3%) treated dAVFs, 178 (77%) underwent mainly endovascular embolization, 11 (4.7%) radiosurgery alone, and 4 (1.7%) open surgery as the primary modality. After the first embolization, most dAVFs (47.2%) achieved only partial reduction in early venous filling. Multiple complementary interventions increased complete obliteration rates from 37.9% after first embolization to 46.7% after two or more embolizations, and 55.2% after combined radiosurgery and open surgery. Immediate postprocedural complications occurred in 35 dAVFs (15.2%) and 6 (2.6%) with permanent sequelae. Of 127 completely obliterated dAVFs by any therapeutic modality, 2 (1.6%) showed angiographic recurrence/recanalization at a mean of 34.2 months after treatment. Progression to Borden-Shucart type II or III was documented in 2.2% of patients and subsequent development of a new dAVF in 1.6%. Partial spontaneous regression was found in 22 (21.4%) of 103 nontreated dAVFs. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that older age, NHND, or severe venous-hyperdynamic symptoms at presentation and infratentorial location were associated with worse prognosis. Kaplan-Meier curves showed no significant difference for stable/improved symptoms survival probability in treated versus nontreated dAVFs. However, estimated survival times showed better trends for treated dAVFs compared with nontreated dAVFs (288.1 months vs 151.1 months, log-rank p = 0.28). This difference was statistically significant for treated dAVFs with 100% occlusion (394 months, log-rank p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Current therapeutic modalities for management of dAVFs without CVD may provide better symptom control when complete angiographic occlusion is achieved

Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research (CONDOR):rationale, design, and initial characterization of patient cohort

OBJECTIVE: Cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (dAVFs) are rare lesions, hampering efforts to understand them and improve their care. To address this challenge, investigators with an established record of dAVF investigation formed an international, multicenter consortium aimed at better elucidating dAVF pathophysiology, imaging characteristics, natural history, and patient outcomes. This report describes the design of the Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research (CONDOR) and includes characterization of the 1077-patient cohort. METHODS: Potential collaborators with established interest in the field were identified via systematic review of the literature. To ensure uniformity of data collection, a quality control process was instituted. Data were retrospectively obtained. RESULTS: CONDOR comprises 14 centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Japan that have pooled their data from 1077 dAVF patients seen between 1990 and 2017. The cohort includes 359 patients (33%) with Borden type I dAVFs, 175 (16%) with Borden type II fistulas, and 529 (49%) with Borden type III fistulas. Overall, 852 patients (79%) presented with fistula-related symptoms: 427 (40%) presented with nonaggressive symptoms such as tinnitus or orbital phenomena, 258 (24%) presented with intracranial hemorrhage, and 167 (16%) presented with nonhemorrhagic neurological deficits. A smaller proportion (224 patients, 21%), whose dAVFs were discovered incidentally, were asymptomatic. Many patients (85%, 911/1077) underwent treatment via endovascular embolization (55%, 587/1077), surgery (10%, 103/1077), radiosurgery (3%, 36/1077), or multimodal therapy (17%, 184/1077). The overall angiographic cure rate was 83% (758/911 treated), and treatment-related permanent neurological morbidity was 2% (27/1467 total procedures). The median time from diagnosis to follow-up was 380 days (IQR 120-1038.5 days). CONCLUSIONS: With more than 1000 patients, the CONDOR registry represents the largest registry of cranial dAVF patient data in the world. These unique, well-annotated data will enable multiple future analyses to be performed to better understand dAVFs and their management

Recurrence after cure in cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas:a collaborative effort by the Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research (CONDOR)

OBJECTIVE Cranial dural arteriovenous fistulas (dAVFs) are often treated with endovascular therapy, but occasionally a multimodality approach including surgery and/or radiosurgery is utilized. Recurrence after an initial angiographic cure has been reported, with estimated rates ranging from 2% to 14.3%, but few risk factors have been identified. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with recurrence of dAVF after putative cure. METHODS The Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research (CONDOR) data were retrospectively reviewed. All patients with angiographic cure after treatment and subsequent angiographic follow-up were included. The primary outcome was recurrence, with risk factor analysis. Secondary outcomes included clinical outcomes, morbidity, and mortality associated with recurrence. Risk factor analysis was performed comparing the group of patients who experienced recurrence with those with durable cure (regardless of multiple recurrences). Time-to-event analysis was performed using all collective recurrence events (multiple per patients in some cases). RESULTS Of the 1077 patients included in the primary CONDOR data set, 457 met inclusion criteria. A total of 32 patients (7%) experienced 34 events of recurrence at a mean of 368.7 days (median 192 days). The recurrence rate was 4.5% overall. Kaplan-Meier analysis predicted long-term recurrence rates approaching 11% at 3 years. Grade III dAVFs treated with endovascular therapy were statistically significantly more likely to experience recurrence than those treated surgically (13.3% vs 0%, p = 0.0001). Tentorial location, cortical venous drainage, and deep cerebral venous drainage were all risk factors for recurrence. Endovascular intervention and radiosurgery were associated with recurrence. Six recurrences were symptomatic, including 2 with hemorrhage, 3 with nonhemorrhagic neurological deficit, and 1 with progressive flow-related symptoms (decreased vision). CONCLUSIONS Recurrence of dAVFs after putative cure can occur after endovascular treatment. Risk factors include tentorial location, cortical venous drainage, and deep cerebral drainage. Multimodality therapy can be used to achieve cure after recurrence. A delayed long-term angiographic evaluation (at least 1 year from cure) may be warranted, especially in cases with risk factors for recurrence

Onyx embolization for dural arteriovenous fistulas:a multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND: Although the liquid embolic agent, Onyx, is often the preferred embolic treatment for cerebral dural arteriovenous fistulas (DAVFs), there have only been a limited number of single-center studies to evaluate its performance. OBJECTIVE: To carry out a multicenter study to determine the predictors of complications, obliteration, and functional outcomes associated with primary Onyx embolization of DAVFs. METHODS: From the Consortium for Dural Arteriovenous Fistula Outcomes Research (CONDOR) database, we identified patients who were treated for DAVF with Onyx-only embolization as the primary treatment between 2000 and 2013. Obliteration rate after initial embolization was determined based on the final angiographic run. Factors predictive of complete obliteration, complications, and functional independence were evaluated with multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total 146 patients with DAVFs were primarily embolized with Onyx. Mean follow-up was 29 months (range 0-129 months). Complete obliteration was achieved in 80 (55%) patients after initial embolization. Major cerebral complications occurred in six patients (4.1%). At last follow-up, 84% patients were functionally independent. Presence of flow symptoms, age over 65, presence of an occipital artery feeder, and preprocedural home anticoagulation use were predictive of non-obliteration. The transverse-sigmoid sinus junction location was associated with fewer complications, whereas the tentorial location was predictive of poor functional outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter study, we report satisfactory performance of Onyx as a primary DAVF embolic agent. The tentorium remains a more challenging location for DAVF embolization, whereas DAVFs located at the transverse-sigmoid sinus junction are associated with fewer complications

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defi ned criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specifi c DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defi ned criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specifi c DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI)

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an