Tradeoffs in demographic mechanisms underlie differences in species abundance and stability

Understanding why some species are common and others are rare is a central question in ecology, and is critical for developing conservation strategies under global change. Rare species are typically considered to be more prone to extinction—but the fact they are rare can impede a general understanding of rarity vs. abundance. Here we develop and empirically test a framework to predict species abundances and stability using mechanisms governing population dynamics. Our results demonstrate that coexisting species with similar abundances can be shaped by different mechanisms (specifically, higher growth rates when rare vs. weaker negative density-dependence). Further, these dynamics influence population stability: species with higher intrinsic growth rates but stronger negative density-dependence were more stable and less sensitive to climate variability, regardless of abundance. This suggests that underlying mechanisms governing population dynamics, in addition to population size, may be critical indicators of population stability in an increasingly variable world

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale-specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non-stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long-term drivers and may miss the importance of short-term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems

Ecological effects of experimental drought and prescribed fire in a southern California coastal grassland

How drought and fire disturbance influence different levels of biological organization is poorly understood but essential for robust predictions of the effects of environmental change. During a year of severe drought, we conducted a prescribed fire in a Mediterranean-type coastal grassland near Irvine, California. In the weeks following the fire we experimentally manipulated rainfall in burned and unburned portions of the grassland to determine how fire and drought interact to influence leaf physiological performance, community composition, aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and component fluxes of ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration (ET). Fire increased leaf photosynthesis (A net) and transpiration (T) of the native perennial bunchgrass, Nassella pulchra and the non-native annual grass, Bromus diandrus but did not influence ANPP or net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). Surprisingly, drought only weakly influenced A net and T of both species but strongly influenced ANPP and NEE. We conclude that despite increasing experimental drought severity, prescribed fire influenced leaf CO2 and H2O exchange but had little effect on the component fluxes of ecosystem CO2 exchange. The differential effects of prescribed fire on leaf and ecosystem processes with increasingly severe drought highlight the challenge of predicting the responses of biological systems to disturbance and resource limitation

Managing the whole landscape: historical, hybrid, and novel ecosystems

The reality confronting ecosystem managers today is one of heterogeneous, rapidly transforming landscapes, particularly in the areas more affected by urban and agricultural development. A landscape management framework that incorporates all systems, across the spectrum of degrees of alteration, provides a fuller set of options for how and when to intervene, uses limited resources more effectively, and increases the chances of achieving management goals. That many ecosystems have departed so substantially from their historical trajectory that they defy conventional restoration is not in dispute. Acknowledging novel ecosystems need not constitute a threat to existing policy and management approaches. Rather, the development of an integrated approach to management interventions can provide options that are in tune with the current reality of rapid ecosystem change

Explore before you restore : incorporating complex systems thinking in ecosystem restoration

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : No new data were used for this manuscript.SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL : APPENDIX S1: Extended glossary. APPENDIX S2: Problem statement. APPENDIX S3: Restoration project cycle.The global movement for ecosystem restoration has gained momentum in response to the Bonn Challenge (2010) and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (UNDER, 2021–2030). While several science-based guidelines exist to aid in achieving successful restoration outcomes, significant variation remains in the outcomes of restoration projects. Some of this disparity can be attributed to unexpected responses of ecosystem components to planned interventions. Given the complex nature of ecosystems, we propose that concepts from Complex Systems Science (CSS) that are linked to non-linearity, such as regime shifts, ecological resilience and ecological feedbacks, should be employed to help explain this variation in restoration outcomes from an ecological perspective. Our framework, Explore Before You Restore, illustrates how these concepts impact restoration outcomes by influencing degradation and recovery trajectories. Additionally, we propose incorporating CSS concepts into the typical restoration project cycle through a CSS assessment phase and suggest that the need for such assessment is explicitly included in the guidelines to improve restoration outcomes. To facilitate this inclusion and make it workable by practitioners, we describe indicators and methods available for restoration teams to answer key questions that should make up such CSS assessment. In doing so, we identify key outstanding science and policy tasks that are needed to further operationalize CSS assessment in restoration. Synthesis and applications. By illustrating how key Complex Systems Science (CSS) concepts linked to non-linear threshold behaviour can impact restoration outcomes through influencing recovery trajectories, our framework Explore Before You Restore demonstrates the need to incorporate Complex Systems thinking in ecosystem restoration. We argue that inclusion of CSS assessment into restoration project cycles, and more broadly, into international restoration guidelines, may significantly improve restoration outcomes.UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek; Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas; Science & Engineering Research Board, Govt of India.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jpehj2024Zoology and EntomologySDG-15:Life on lan

Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities

Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes

Threshold models in restoration and conservation: a developing framework

The recognition that a system can appear resilient to changes in the environment, only to reach a critical threshold of rapid and unexpected change, is spurring work to apply threshold models in conservation and restoration. Here we address the relevance of threshold models to habitat management. Work to date indicates these concepts are highly applicable: human impacts can widen the range of habitats where threshold dynamics occur and shift communities into new states that are difficult to reverse. However, in many applied settings, threshold concepts are being adopted without evaluation of evidence and uncertainty. We suggest a framework for incorporating threshold models that reflects an emphasis on applicability to decision making and management on relatively short timescales and in human-impacted systems

Management of novel ecosystems: are novel approaches required?

Most ecosystems are now sufficiently altered in structure and function to qualify as novel systems, and this recognition should be the starting point for ecosystem management efforts. Under the emerging biogeochemical configurations, management activities are experiments, blurring the line between basic and applied research. Responses to specific management manipulations are context specific, influenced by the current status or structure of the system, and this necessitates reference areas for management or restoration activities. Attempts to return systems to within their historical range of biotic and abiotic characteristics and processes may not be possible, and management activities directed at removing undesirable features of novel ecosystems may perpetuate or create such ecosystems. Management actions should attempt to maintain genetic and species diversity and encourage the biogeochemical characteristics that favor desirable species. Few resources currently exist to support the addition of proactive measures and rigorous experimental designs to current management activities. The necessary changes will not occur without strong input from stakeholders and policy makers, so rapid information transfer and proactive research–management activities by the scientific community are needed