Simulation model ofconsumer decision making

In this paper a simulation model is presented, which by means of a cellular automaton allows us to analyze the process of decision making by consumers. The model takes into account the influence of the neighborhood, as well as of advertising. It works on the basis of a two-dimensional cellular automaton with a von Neumann neighborhood.model, cellular automaton, consumer behavior

Estimating the Impact of the 1999 Pension Reform in Poland, 2000 - 2050

This paper gives an account of the main aims and principles of the reform measures which came into force in 1999. Its primary objective is to present estimations of the effects of these measures on the composition of the pension system, over the next 50 years, in terms of institutions, expenditures and revenues. Within the segment of retirement pensions outside agriculture, the 1999 reform is found capable of achieving its key objectives concerning work incentives, total spending and aggregate savings. However, invalidity and family pensions for all and retirement pensions for farmers represent three segments which are yet to be properly reformed. The paper concludes that the 1999 reform should arrest a further deterioration of public sector finances with respect to pensions, but any reduction of Poland's exceptionally large both public spending on pensions and social security contributions is contingent on adopting radical reforms also in these three segments.pension reform, Poland

Socio-Demographic Forecast of Poland, 1997 - 2050, for Modelling Incomes and Social Security Retirement Pensions

The primary purpose of this paper is to report estimates of the size and the social and demographic composition of the population of Poland, in the years 1997.2050, which takes into account the variables needed for modelling the effects of the 1999 pension reform. The total population is forecast to increase from 38.5 mln to 40 mln, and then fall to around 37 mln in the year 2050. The paper proposes specific assumptions concerning the rate and form of migration from the agricultural to the non-agricultural category, the rate of extension of postelementary education, and the rate of increase in the number of self-employed and freelance workers. The agricultural community is forecast to decline from 23.8% in the year 2000 to about 20.4% in 2025 and 16.3% in 2050. The education gap between Poland and the European Community, large in 1997, is forecast to decline gradually, but will almost disappear only towards the end of the 2000.2050 period. The paper traces the implications of these changes for the number and composition of the population of those who will receive benefits and those who will pay social security contributions.incomes, Social Security retirement pensions, Poland

Challenges in modelling dissolved organic matter dynamics in agricultural soil using DAISY

Because dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays an important role is terrestrial C-,N-and P-balances and transport of these three components to aquatic environments, there is a need to include it in models. This paper presents the concept of the newly developed DOM modules implemented in the DAISY model with focus on the quantification of DOM sorption/desorption and microbial-driven DOM turnover. The kinetics of DOM sorption/desorption is described by the deviation of the actual DOM concentration in solution from the equilibrium concentration, Ceq. The Ceq is soil specific and estimated from pedotransfer functions taking into account the soil content of organic matter, Al and Fe oxides. The turnover of several organic matter pools including one DOM pool are described by first-order kinetics. The DOM module was tested at field scale for three soil treatments applied after cultivating grass–clover swards. Suction cups were installed at depths 30, 60 and 90 cm and soil solution was sampled for quantification of dissolved organic C (DOC) and dissolved organic N (DON). In the topsoil, the observed fluctuations in DOC were successfully simulated when the sorption/desorption rate coefficient k was low. In the subsoil, the observed concentrations of DOC were steadier and the best simulations were obtained using a high k. The model shows that DOC and DON concentrations are levelled out in the subsoils due to soil buffering. The steady concentration levels were based on the Ceq for each horizon and the kinetic concept for sorption/desorption of DOC appeared aviable approach. If Ceq was successfully estimated by the pedotransfer function it was possible to simulate the DOC concentration in the subsoil. In spite of difficulties in describing the DOC dynamics of the topsoil, the DOM module simulates the subsoil concentration level of DOC well, and also — but with more uncertainty — the DON concentration level

Simulering af DOC og DON i indsatsområde "Søndersø" på Fyn: Endelig rapport for Arbejdspakke 6 i projektet "Regional Grundvandsbeskyttelse ved hjælp af optimerede Økologiske Dyrkningssystemer"

Der er gennemført en beregning af udvaskning af nitrat, ammonium, DOC og DON for en konventionel og en økologisk situation i et indsatsområde ved “Søndersø” på Fyn. Beregningerne er udført med DAISY-modellen, indeholdende et nyudviklet DOC/DON-modul og MIKE SHE-modellen. Modelopsætningen, der dækker et noget større område end selve indsatsområdet, baserer sig på den eksisterende arealanvendelse og landbrugssituation for en del af området, og ekstrapoleret i den nordvestlige del. Ekstrapolationen dækker kun en lille del af det faktiske indsatsområde. Modelopsætningerne bygger på tidligere modelleringsstudier i samme område. Koncentrationerne af DOC og DON er stort set ens i de to scenarier på grund af, at den styrende faktor er jordens organiske pulje. På grund af større forekomst af græsmarker i økologisk landbrug ville man forvente en opbygning af den organiske pulje, men DAISY-modellen synes at undervurdere denne faktor. Forskellen i DOC/DON-produktion mellem konventionelt og økologisk jordbrug forventes derfor også at være undervurderet. For at beskrive DOC/DON-dynamikken i grundvandet, er den udvaskede mængde opdelt i forskellige puljer, med forskellige C/N-forhold og nedbrydningstid. Mængden af uorganisk nitrat udvasket fra rodzonen er væsentligt lavere i indsatsområdet efter omlægning til økologisk brug, nemlig 29 kg N/ha i forhold til 70 kg N/ha i gennemsnit før omlægningen. Effekten af omlægningen er noget forsinket. Nitratkoncentrationen til dræn falder fra 13.2 kg nitrat-N/ha (2003-2012) i det konventionelle scenarie til 9.5 kg nitrat-N/ha i det økologiske scenarie, opgjort som gennemsnit for de første 10 år af omlægningen (samme klimaserie og periode). For koncentrationerne i det øverste grundvandsmagasin bliver koncentrationsændringerne først rigtigt synlige mod slutningen af simuleringsperioden, men ikke i alle beregningspunkter. I 2013 er forskellen mellem den gennemsnitlige nitratkoncentration i det konventionelle og økologiske scenarie 9 procent (af koncentrationen for det konventionelle scenarie med redoxzone og DOC-nedbrydning implementeret), men det skylles at kun en lille del af det øverste magasin har en alder på 0-10 år. Fortsættes beregningerne derfor i yderligere 30 år, vil den lavere udvaskning i det økologiske scenarie også slå væsentligt kraftigere igennem på grundvandskoncentrationerne. Men man kan altså ikke forvente en umiddelbar effekt af en dyrkningsomlægning på en nitrattruet grundvandsindvinding. Omkring 52 % af nitraten, der forlader rodzonen i indsatsområdet, reduceres i redoxzonen. Da dette gælder for begge scenarier, er der i de pågældende områder ingen effekt af omlægning. DOC-betinget denitrifikation har fjernet yderligere ca 6 % af nitraten i det konventionelle scenarie. Da den nedvaskede DOC-mængde er lille i beregningerne, kan dette tal være undervurderet, især i det økologiske scenarie. På den anden side er det antaget, at alt DOC-nedbrydning medvirker til denitrifikation, hvilket er en overvurdering. Forskellen mellem denne beregning og det økologiske scenarie er kun yderligere 4 procent i 2013 (konservativ transport og konventionelt scenarie = 100 %). I denne rapport er gjort en række simple antagelser om nedbrydning, nitrifikation, denitrifikation og sorption i grundvandszonen. Antagelserne fører til en udvikling i DOC og DON, der nogenlunde svarer til generelle observationer vedrørende koncentrationer og C/N-forhold, men der foreligger ikke måledata eller detailundersøgelser, der kan anvendes til en mere detaljeret parameterisering og procesforståelse. For at opnå en bedre forståelse af betydningen af DOC-produktion på denitrifikation, ikke mindst i økologisk produktion, kræves derfor yderligere undersøgelser

Financial Centers in Belgium : a comprehensive case study of multinationals’ financial centers in Belgium

This thesis explores the tax regime and environment for financial centers of multinational companies in Belgium. I show that the taxation of such activities have been and still is beneficial in Belgium and conclude that Belgium is an attractive location for financial centers. Also contributing to this is the business environment in Belgium with accommodating authorities and an already established cluster of coordination centers. I present the activities in which the financial centers engage in and the corresponding advantages. Furthermore, I give two examples of multinational companies having established such centers in Belgium, Statoil and Statkraft, and use them to illustrate both the benefits of an independent and centralized financial center per se and the taxation in the Belgian tax regime. Moreover, I evaluate the present regime in light of the current market conditions and explain the reasons for why the regime will continue to ensure advantageous taxation of financial centers. I also illustrate a method for which such centers can exploit differences in tax regimes to create tax arbitrage