The capitalization of taxes in bond prices: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds

This paper provides estimates of the extent to which corporate and personal income taxes are capitalized in bond prices. The methodology yields estimates of the degree of tax capitalization, rather than an implied tax rate. This makes it straightforward to identify the marginal investor and test for changes in tax capitalization. The empirical approach also makes it unnecessary to jointly estimate the degree of tax capitalization and the entire yield curve. Corporate taxes are found to have been fully capitalized in pre-tax Government of Canada bond yields during the period 1986-1993. Since 1994, taxes have not been capitalized in yields. These results are consistent with the existence of a marginal investor, but the identity of the marginal investor changed from a financial sector firm to a non-taxed entity in the early 1990s.Tax capitalization; Bond yields.

The capitalization of taxes in bond prices: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds

This paper provides estimates of the extent to which corporate and personal income taxes are capitalized in bond prices. The methodology yields estimates of the degree of tax capitalization, rather than an implied tax rate. This makes it straightforward to identify the marginal investor and test for changes in tax capitalization. The empirical approach also makes it unnecessary to jointly estimate the degree of tax capitalization and the entire yield curve. Corporate taxes are found to have been fully capitalized in pre-tax Government of Canada bond yields during the period 1986-1993. Since 1994, taxes have not been capitalized in yields. These results are consistent with the existence of a marginal investor, but the identity of the marginal investor changed from a financial sector firm to a non-taxed entity in the early 1990s.tax capitalization; bond yields

Government Revenue Volatility in Alberta

The Alberta government is heavily exposed to energy price volatility as it relies to a great extent on revenue derived from the production of oil and natural gas. Energy prices change substantially and unpredictably, causing large and uncertain movements in revenues. Adjusting to these movements typically involves economic, social and political costs. Alberta government revenues are considerably more volatile than the revenues of other provinces, but Alberta’s own-source revenues less royalty payments are of similar size and volatility as those of other provinces. Several methods to reduce the volatility of revenues are assessed. An often-suggested method, tax base diversification (for example, use of a retail sales tax), is shown to have a minor effect on overall revenue volatility since Alberta’s royalty revenues are such a large share of total own-source revenues. Revenue smoothing using futures and options markets can be expensive, is associated with significant political risks, and cannot eliminate all revenue volatility. The Canadian dollar tends to appreciate (depreciate) when energy prices rise (fall), so exchange rate movements have smoothed Alberta government revenues, although not by a large amount. A simulation using Alberta data shows that a revenue savings fund could significantly reduce revenue volatility. This type of fund leads to greater revenue stability because the revenue it contributes to the budget in any particular year is based on revenues averaged over prior years. Revenue uncertainty is also reduced with a savings fund since future revenue depends on known past contributions.government revenue volatility; energy prices; tax base diversification; government savings fund

Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates

Aggregate and sector-level investment equations that incorporate the exchange rate are estimated for a panel of 17 OECD countries using an error correction methodology. A real currency depreciation is found to have a significant negative effect on aggregate investment in both the short run and the long run. This effect is negative in all sectors in the short run, is significant in six of nine sectors, and is particularly persistent in service sectors, sectors that do not generally benefit directly from an expansion of demand following a currency depreciation. Movements in another explanatory variable, the real wage, have an insignificant impact on investment in the short run in most sectors, but a rise in the real wage has a significant negative long run effect on aggregate investment and on investment in six of nine sectors. A simulation shows that movements in the real exchange rate and the real wage can explain a large proportion of cross-country differences in investment.investment; exchange rate

Taxation and bond market investment strategies: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds

This paper shows that, contrary to the suggestion of some investment advisors, for an individual Canadian investor subject to personal income taxation, the after-tax yield on a discount bond is always higher (or, at worse, equal) to the yield on a premium bond. This follows because the tax rate on capital gains is lower than the tax rate on coupon income in Canada. It is also shown that a decline in the capital gains tax rate raises the after-tax yield on discount bonds, but reduces the after-tax yield on premium bonds, and may even cause the yield on premium bonds to become negative. Further, a cut in the tax rate on interest income raises the after-tax yield on all bonds, but raises the yield on premium bonds relative to discount bonds. While the lower after-tax yields on higher coupon bonds might be expected to cause the pre-tax yields on these bonds to rise, no evidence of such tax capitalization is found using a large dataset of matched pairs of Government of Canada bonds for the period 1986-2006. The observed near equality of pre-tax yields since 1995 for bonds with different coupons implies that individuals in Canada earn a significantly smaller after-tax yield from holding premium bonds than discount bonds.taxation; bonds; after tax returns

Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility

Alberta government needs a revamped resource revenue stabilization fund to overcome the effects of wild swings in resource revenue and spending.Energy prices change substantially and unpredictably, causing revenue planning trouble for the Alberta government. Adjusting to these movements typically involves economic, social, and political costs that need to be factored into the government’s fiscal outlook. The best option for handling this is a resource revenue stabilization fund that collects a fixed proportion of resource revenue each year, and funds the provincial budget each year with a fixed share of the fund’s assets.Fiscal and Tax Competitiveness, Alberta, revenue volatility, resource revenue stabilization fund

Riding the Yield Curve: A Spanning Analysis

The average return on long-term bonds exceeds the return on short-term bills by a large amount over short investment horizons. A riding-the-yield-curve investment strategy takes advantage of the higher returns on longer term bonds. This strategy involves the purchase of bonds with maturities longer than the investment horizon and the sale of these bonds, before they mature, at the end of the investment horizon. Most of the literature that evaluates this strategy compares only ex post average returns or Sharpe ratios. In this paper, we use spanning tests to provide formal statistical evidence on the benefits of investing in long bonds when the investment horizon is short. The results for both the US and Canada indicate that an investor with a short horizon is better off investing in short-term debt instruments than long-term bonds.North American bond market; portfolio diversification; mean-variance spanning; yield curve

Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy

The Alberta government is heavily exposed to energy price volatility as it relies to a great extent on revenue derived from the production of oil and natural gas. Energy prices change substantially and unpredictably, causing large and uncertain movements in revenues. Adjusting to these movements typically involves economic, social and political costs. Alberta government revenues are considerably more volatile than the revenues of other provinces, but Alberta’s own-source revenues less royalty payments are of similar size and volatility as those of other provinces. Several methods to reduce the volatility of revenues are assessed. An often-suggested method, tax base diversification (for example, use of a retail sales tax), is shown to have a minor effect on overall revenue volatility since Alberta’s royalty revenues are such a large share of total own-source revenues. Revenue smoothing using futures and options markets can be expensive, is associated with significant political risks, and cannot eliminate all revenue volatility. The Canadian dollar tends to appreciate (depreciate) when energy prices rise (fall), so exchange rate movements have smoothed Alberta government revenues, although not by a large amount. A simulation using Alberta data shows that a revenue savings fund could significantly reduce revenue volatility. This type of fund leads to greater revenue stability because the revenue it contributes to the budget in any particular year is based on revenues averaged over prior years. Revenue uncertainty is also reduced with a savings fund since future revenue depends on known past contributions

The capitalization of taxes in bond prices: Evidence from the market for Government of Canada bonds

This paper provides estimates of the extent to which corporate and personal income taxes are capitalized in bond prices. The methodology yields estimates of the degree of tax capitalization, rather than an implied tax rate. This makes it straightforward to identify the marginal investor and test for changes in tax capitalization. The empirical approach also makes it unnecessary to jointly estimate the degree of tax capitalization and the entire yield curve. Corporate taxes are found to have been fully capitalized in pre-tax Government of Canada bond yields during the period 1986-1993. Since 1994, taxes have not been capitalized in yields. These results are consistent with the existence of a marginal investor, but the identity of the marginal investor changed from a financial sector firm to a non-taxed entity in the early 1990s

Investment and the exchange rate: Short run and long run aggregate and sector-level estimates

Aggregate and sector-level investment equations that incorporate the exchange rate are estimated for a panel of 17 OECD countries using an error correction methodology. A real currency depreciation is found to have a significant negative effect on aggregate investment in both the short run and the long run. This effect is negative in all sectors in the short run, is significant in six of nine sectors, and is particularly persistent in service sectors, sectors that do not generally benefit directly from an expansion of demand following a currency depreciation. Movements in another explanatory variable, the real wage, have an insignificant impact on investment in the short run in most sectors, but a rise in the real wage has a significant negative long run effect on aggregate investment and on investment in six of nine sectors. A simulation shows that movements in the real exchange rate and the real wage can explain a large proportion of cross-country differences in investment