Hot Streaks in Artistic, Cultural, and Scientific Careers

The hot streak, loosely defined as winning begets more winnings, highlights a specific period during which an individual's performance is substantially higher than her typical performance. While widely debated in sports, gambling, and financial markets over the past several decades, little is known if hot streaks apply to individual careers. Here, building on rich literature on lifecycle of creativity, we collected large-scale career histories of individual artists, movie directors and scientists, tracing the artworks, movies, and scientific publications they produced. We find that, across all three domains, hit works within a career show a high degree of temporal regularity, each career being characterized by bursts of high-impact works occurring in sequence. We demonstrate that these observations can be explained by a simple hot-streak model we developed, allowing us to probe quantitatively the hot streak phenomenon governing individual careers, which we find to be remarkably universal across diverse domains we analyzed: The hot streaks are ubiquitous yet unique across different careers. While the vast majority of individuals have at least one hot streak, hot streaks are most likely to occur only once. The hot streak emerges randomly within an individual's sequence of works, is temporally localized, and is unassociated with any detectable change in productivity. We show that, since works produced during hot streaks garner significantly more impact, the uncovered hot streaks fundamentally drives the collective impact of an individual, ignoring which leads us to systematically over- or under-estimate the future impact of a career. These results not only deepen our quantitative understanding of patterns governing individual ingenuity and success, they may also have implications for decisions and policies involving predicting and nurturing individuals with lasting impact

Monoubiquitination of syntaxin 3 leads to retrieval from the basolateral plasma membrane and facilitates cargo recruitment to exosomes

Syntaxin 3 (Stx3), a SNARE protein located and functioning at the apical plasma membrane of epithelial cells, is required for epithelial polarity. A fraction of Stx3 is localized to late endosomes/lysosomes, although how it traffics there and its function in these organelles is unknown. Here we report that Stx3 undergoes monoubiquitination in a conserved polybasic domain. Stx3 present at the basolateral—but not the apical—plasma membrane is rapidly endocytosed, targeted to endosomes, internalized into intraluminal vesicles (ILVs), and excreted in exosomes. A nonubiquitinatable mutant of Stx3 (Stx3-5R) fails to enter this pathway and leads to the inability of the apical exosomal cargo protein GPRC5B to enter the ILV/exosomal pathway. This suggests that ubiquitination of Stx3 leads to removal from the basolateral membrane to achieve apical polarity, that Stx3 plays a role in the recruitment of cargo to exosomes, and that the Stx3-5R mutant acts as a dominant-negative inhibitor. Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) acquires its membrane in an intracellular compartment and we show that Stx3-5R strongly reduces the number of excreted infectious viral particles. Altogether these results suggest that Stx3 functions in the transport of specific proteins to apical exosomes and that HCMV exploits this pathway for virion excretion

Emergence and Persistence of Minor Drug-Resistant HIV-1 Variants in Ugandan Women after Nevirapine Single-Dose Prophylaxis

BACKGROUND: Nevirapine (NVP) single-dose is still a widely used antiretroviral prophylaxis for the prevention of vertical HIV-1 transmission in resource-limited settings. However, the main disadvantage of the Non-nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitor (NNRTI) NVP is the rapid selection of NVP-resistant virus with negative implications for subsequent NNRTI-based long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, we analysed the emergence of drug-resistant HIV-1 including minor variants in the early phase after NVP single-dose prophylaxis and the persistence of drug-resistant virus over time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: NVP-resistant HIV-1 harbouring the K103N and/or Y181C resistance mutations in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase gene was measured from 1 week up to 18 months after NVP single-dose prophylaxis in 29 Ugandan women using allele-specific PCR assays capable of detecting drug-resistant variants representing less than 1% of the whole viral population. In total, drug-resistant HIV-1 was identified in 18/29 (62%) women; rates increased from 18% to 38% and 44% at week 1, 2, 6, respectively, and decreased to 18%, 25%, 13% and 4% at month 3, 6, 12 and 18, respectively. The proportion of NVP-resistant virus of the total viral population was significantly higher in women infected with subtype D (median 40.5%) as compared to subtype A (median 1.3%; p = 0.032, Mann-Whitney U test). 33% of resistant virus was not detectable at week 2 but was for the first time measurable 6-12 weeks after NVP single-dose prophylaxis. Three (10%) women harboured resistant virus in proportions >10% still at month 6. CONCLUSIONS: Current WHO guidelines recommend an additional postnatal intake of AZT and 3TC for one week to avoid NVP resistance formation. Our findings indicate that a 1-week medication might be too short to impede the emergence of NVP resistance in a substantial proportion of women. Furthermore, subsequent NNRTI-based ART should not be started earlier than 12 months after NVP single-dose prophylaxis

Improving Outcomes in Infants of HIV-Infected Women in a Developing Country Setting

Since 1999 GHESKIO, a large voluntary counseling and HIV testing center in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, has had an ongoing collaboration with the Haitian Ministry of Health to reduce the rate of mother to child HIV transmission. There are limited data on the ability to administer complex regimens for reducing mother to child transmission and on risk factors for continued transmission and infant mortality within programmatic settings in developing countries.We analyzed data from 551 infants born to HIV-infected mothers seen at GHESKIO, between 1999 and 2005. HIV-infected mothers and their infants were given "short-course" monotherapy with antiretrovirals for prophylaxis; and, since 2003, highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) when clinical or laboratory indications were met. Infected women seen in the pre-treatment era had 27% transmission rates, falling to 10% in this cohort of 551 infants, and to only 1.9% in infants of women on HAART. Mortality rate after HAART introduction (0.12 per year of follow-up [0.08-0.16]) was significantly lower than the period before the availability of such therapy (0.23 [0.16-0.30], P<0.0001). The effects of maternal health, infant feeding, completeness of prophylaxis, and birth weight on mortality and transmission were determined using univariate and multivariate analysis. Infant HIV-1 infection and low birth weight were associated with infant mortality in less than 15 month olds in multivariate analysis.Our findings demonstrate success in prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission and mortality in a highly resource constrained setting. Elements contributing to programmatic success include provision of HAART in the context of a comprehensive program with pre and postnatal care for both mother and infant

Oxygen for relief of dyspnoea in mildly- or non-hypoxaemic patients with cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of palliative oxygen for relief of dyspnoea in cancer patients. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for randomised controlled trials, comparing oxygen and medical air in cancer patients not qualifying for home oxygen therapy. Abstracts were reviewed and studies were selected using Cochrane methodology. The included studies provided oxygen at rest or during a 6-min walk. The primary outcome was dyspnoea. Standardised mean differences (SMDs) were used to combine scores. Five studies were identified; one was excluded from meta-analysis due to data presentation. Individual patient data were obtained from the authors of the three of the four remaining studies (one each from England, Australia, and the United States). A total of 134 patients were included in the meta-analysis. Oxygen failed to improve dyspnoea in mildly- or non-hypoxaemic cancer patients (SMD=−0.09, 95% confidence interval −0.22 to 0.04; P=0.16). Results were stable to a sensitivity analysis, excluding studies requiring the use of imputed quantities. In this small meta-analysis, oxygen did not provide symptomatic benefit for cancer patients with refractory dyspnoea, who would not normally qualify for home oxygen therapy. Further study of the use of oxygen in this population is warranted given its widespread use

Lake drying and livelihood dynamics in Lake Chad: unravelling the mechanisms, contexts and responses

This article examines lake drying and livelihood dynamics in the context of multiple stressors through a case study of the ‘‘Small Lake Chad’’ in the Republic of Chad. Livelihoods research in regions experiencing persistent lake water fluctuations has largely focused on the wellbeing and security of lakeshore dwellers. Little is known about the mechanisms through which lake drying shapes livelihood drawbacks and opportunities, and whether locally evolved responses are enhancing livelihoods. Here we address these gaps using empirical, mixed-methods field research couched within the framework of livelihoods and human well-being contexts. The analysis demonstrates that limited opportunities outside agriculture, the influx of mixed ethnic migrants and the increasing spate of violence all enhance livelihood challenges. Livelihood opportunities centre on the renewal effects of seasonal flood pulses on lake waters and the learning opportunities triggered by past droughts. Although drying has spurred new adaptive behaviours predicated on seasonality, traditional predictive factors and the availability of assets, responses have remained largely reactive. The article points to where lake drying fits amongst changes in the wider socioeconomic landscape in which people live, and suggests that awareness of the particularities of the mechanisms that connect lake drying to livelihoods can offer insights into the ways local people might be assisted by governments and development actors

The Uptake of Integrated Perinatal Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: The objective of this review was to assess the uptake of WHO recommended integrated perinatal prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV interventions in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched 21 databases for observational studies presenting uptake of integrated PMTCT programs in low- and middle-income countries. Forty-one studies on programs implemented between 1997 and 2006, met inclusion criteria. The proportion of women attending antenatal care who were counseled and who were tested was high; 96% (range 30-100%) and 81% (range 26-100%), respectively. However, the overall median proportion of HIV positive women provided with antiretroviral prophylaxis in antenatal care and attending labor ward was 55% (range 22-99%) and 60% (range 19-100%), respectively. The proportion of women with unknown HIV status, tested for HIV at labor ward was 70%. Overall, 79% (range 44-100%) of infants were tested for HIV and 11% (range 3-18%) of them were HIV positive. We designed two PMTCT cascades using studies with outcomes for all perinatal PMTCT interventions which showed that an estimated 22% of all HIV positive women attending antenatal care and 11% of all HIV positive women delivering at labor ward were not notified about their HIV status and did not participate in PMTCT program. Only 17% of HIV positive antenatal care attendees and their infants are known to have taken antiretroviral prophylaxis. CONCLUSION: The existing evidence provides information only about the initial PMTCT programs which were based on the old WHO PMTCT guidelines. The uptake of counseling and HIV testing among pregnant women attending antenatal care was high, but their retention in PMTCT programs was low. The majority of women in the included studies did not receive ARV prophylaxis in antenatal care; nor did they attend labor ward. More studies evaluating the uptake in current PMTCT programs are urgently needed

Antiretroviral treatment reverses HIV-associated anemia in rural Tanzania

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV-associated anemia is common and associated with poor prognosis. However, its response to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in rural Africa is poorly understood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HIV-infected adults (≥15 years) who enrolled in HIV care at Haydom Lutheran Hospital in northern Tanzania were included in the study. The effect of ART (zidovudine/stavudine + lamivudine + efavirenz/nevirapine) on HIV-associated anemia was studied in a subset of patients who were anemic at the time they started ART and had a follow-up hemoglobin measurement 12 months later. Pregnant women were excluded from the study, as were women who had given birth within the past 6 weeks. Anemia was defined as hemoglobin <12 g/dL in women and <13 g/dL in men. We applied paired sample T-tests to compare hemoglobin levels before and one year after ART initiation, and logistic regression models to identify predictors of persistent anemia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At enrollment, mean hemoglobin was 10.3 g/dL, and 649 of 838 patients (77.4%) were anemic. Of the anemic patients, 254 (39.1%) had microcytosis and hypochromia. Among 102 patients who were anemic at ART initiation and had a follow-up hemoglobin measurement after 12 months, the mean hemoglobin increased by 2.5 g/dL (<it>P </it>< 0.001); however, 39 patients (38.2%) were still anemic after 12 months of ART. Independent predictors of persistent anemia were mean cell volume in the lower quartile (<76.0 fL; Odds Ratio [OR] 4.34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-15.5) and a zidovudine-containing initial regimen (OR 2.91; 95% CI 1.03-8.19).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Most patients had anemia at enrollment, of whom nearly 40% had microcytosis and hypochromia suggestive of iron deficiency. The mean hemoglobin increased significantly in patients who received ART, but one third were still anemic 12 months after ART initiation indicating that additional interventions to treat HIV-associated anemia in rural Africa might be warranted, particularly in patients with microcytosis and those treated with zidovudine.</p

Autoimmune Neuromuscular Disorders in Childhood

Autoimmune neuromuscular disorders in childhood include Guillain-Barré syndrome and its variants, chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP), juvenile myasthenia gravis (JMG), and juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM), along with other disorders rarely seen in childhood. In general, these diseases have not been studied as extensively as they have been in adults. Thus, treatment protocols for these diseases in pediatrics are often based on adult practice, but despite the similarities in disease processes, the most widely used treatments have different effects in children. For example, some of the side effects of chronic steroid use, including linear growth deceleration, bone demineralization, and chronic weight issues, are more consequential in children than in adults. Although steroids remain a cornerstone of therapy in JDM and are useful in many cases of CIDP and JMG, other immunomodulatory therapies with similar efficacy may be used more frequently in some children to avoid these long-term sequelae. Steroids are less expensive than most other therapies, but chronic steroid therapy in childhood may lead to significant and costly medical complications. Another example is plasma exchange. This treatment modality presents challenges in pediatrics, as younger children require central venous access for this therapy. However, in older children and adolescents, plasma exchange is often feasible via peripheral venous access, making this treatment more accessible than might be expected in this age group. Intravenous immunoglobulin also is beneficial in several of these disorders, but its high cost may present barriers to its use in the future. Newer steroid-sparing immunomodulatory agents, such as azathioprine, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and rituximab, have not been studied extensively in children. They show promising results from case reports and retrospective cohort studies, but there is a need for comparative studies looking at their relative efficacy, tolerability, and long-term adverse effects (including secondary malignancy) in children