The Politics and Institutions of Project Approval - a Critical-Constructive Comment on the Theory of Strategic Misrepresentation

This article addresses theoretical and methodological explanations of miscalculations of costs and benefits in large infrastructure projects. In particular the focus is on the most influential theoretical contribution in this area, labeled ‘the theory of strategic misrepresentation’, a theory strongly associated with the work of Bent Flyvbjerg. The theory’s major explanation of cost overruns is that the registration and representation of data and the calculations of costs and benefits are made by planners in organisations that have economic interests in the results. They work in a context were they compete for scarce public resources, and in which lying pays off in the end. The result is, as Flyvbjerg expresses it, the ‘survival of the unfittest’. It is not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones. This theory, with its focus on the institutional context and incentive structures, represents a major step forward compared to the solely methodological explanations. However, it has several shortcomings both in theoretical and methodological terms. Methodologically, the research has not the design necessary for validating the conclusion of ‘the survival of the unfittest’. Theoretically, the framework does not offer any variation on the institutional variable nor when it comes to variation in planners (actors) motives and rationality. Hence, there is a need for a broader theoretical framework. We conclude our article by sketching such a framework, an institutional approach grounded in sociological theory, as well as applying it to Norwegian transport planning. The Norwegian research in this area does not support the thesis that project approval is a result of planners’ strategic actions. More often it is an outcome of institutions where politicians play a key role at all levels and stages of the planning process, often neglecting planners’ analyses and recommendations

Traffic forecasts ignoring induced demand:a shaky fundament for cost-benefit analyses

Although the phenomenon of induced traffic has been theorized for more than 60 years and is now widely accepted among transport researchers, the traffic-generating effects of road capacity expansion are still often neglected in transport modelling. Such omission can lead to serious bias in the assessments of environmental impacts as well as the economic viability of proposed road projects, especially in situations where there is a latent demand for more road capacity. This has been illustrated in the present paper by an assessment of travel time savings, environmental impacts and the economic performance of a proposed road project in Copenhagen with and without short-term induced traffic included in the transport model. The available transport model was not able to include long-term induced traffic resulting from changes in land use and in the level of service of public transport. Even though the model calculations included only a part of the induced traffic, the difference in cost-benefit results compared to the model excluding all induced traffic was substantial. The results show lower travel time savings, more adverse environmental impacts and a considerably lower benefit-cost ratio when induced traffic is partly accounted for than when it is ignored. By exaggerating the economic benefits of road capacity increase and underestimating its negative effects, omission of induced traffic can result in overallocation of public money on road construction and correspondingly less focus on other ways of dealing with congestion and environmental problems in urban areas

Traffic Forecasts Ignoring Induced Demand: a Shaky Fundament for Cost-Benefit Analyses

Although the phenomenon of induced traffic has been theorized for more than 60 years and is now widely accepted among transport researchers, the traffic-generating effects of road capacity expansion are still often neglected in transport modelling. Such omission can lead to serious bias in the assessments of environmental impacts as well as the economic viability of proposed road projects, especially in situations where there is a latent demand for more road capacity. This has been illustrated in the present paper by an assessment of travel time savings, environmental impacts and the economic performance of a proposed road project in Copenhagen with and without short-term induced traffic included in the transport model. The available transport model was not able to include long-term induced traffic resulting from changes in land use and in the level of service of public transport. Even though the model calculations included only a part of the induced traffic, the difference in cost-benefit results compared to the model excluding all induced traffic was substantial. The results show lower travel time savings, more adverse environmental impacts and a considerably lower benefit-cost ratio when induced traffic is partly accounted for than when it is ignored. By exaggerating the economic benefits of road capacity increase and underestimating its negative effects, omission of induced traffic can result in overallocation of public money on road construction and correspondingly less focus on other ways of dealing with congestion and environmental problems in urban areas

Residential location, commuting and non-work travel in two urban areas of different size and with different center structures

There is an extensive literature on relationships between the built environment and travel, but the vast majority of such studies rely solely on statistical analyses of available travel survey data, with limited possibilities for demonstrating causality. This article presents findings from a methodologically novel study drawing on a combination of a tailor-made questionnaire survey and in-depth qualitative interviews, including cross-sectional as well as longitudinal analyses. Our mixed-methods approach offers stronger evidence of causal influences than in most previous studies on the built environment and travel. We illuminate such relationships in two metropolitan areas differing considerably in their size and urban structure: the relatively monocentric Norwegian capital Oslo and the smaller, predominantly polycentric Stavanger area. The study encompasses travel distances and modes for both commuting and intra-metropolitan non-work purposes. The paper thus offers a comparison of the influences of built environment characteristics on travel across metropolitan contexts as well as for different travel purposes. In both metropolitan areas and for commuting as well as non-work trips, inner-city dwellers make a higher proportion of trips by non-motorized modes and a lower share by car. Inner-city residents in both metropolitan areas also travel shorter distances for non-work purposes than their suburban counterparts do. In the relatively monocentric Oslo metropolitan area, commuting distances also tend to increase substantially the further away from the city center the workers live. In the more polycentric Stavanger metropolitan area, commuting distances are first and foremost influenced by the location of the dwelling relative to a large suburban employment center, and only secondarily by its distance to the city center of Stavanger. Commuting distances as well as travel modes for both commuting and non-work travel depend mostly on the distance from the dwelling to the main or second-order centers of the urban region. Local built environment characteristics play a greater role for trip distances to non-work destinations, particularly in the Oslo region. The results generally support urban containment as a strategy to promote sustainable mobility, with inner-city densification as particularly favorable.acceptedVersio

Transport modelling in the context of the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm

The central concern of this paper is why the traffic-increasing effect of road capacity expansion (induced traffic) is still frequently ignored when preparing decision-support material for proposed infrastructure investments. Earlier research has pointed at ignorance or technical difficulties as likely reasons. This paper offers an additional explanation. Based on an investigation of the opinions of transport modellers, consultants, transport planners and politicians concerning the usefulness, shortcomings and application of forecasting models in transport planning, this paper suggests that transport model forecasts are used in project evaluations primarily to throw light on where and when to build a proposed road infrastructure, not for assessing whether to build it. Since induced traffic is usually not differing so much between the different ‘build’-alternatives, the errors caused by omitting induced traffic in the models are accepted. This way of framing the decision problem is often associated with what has been termed the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm

Wild Mountain reindeer Rangifer tarandus tarandus winter foraging: snow-free areas a key resource for feeding

In a landscape with patchily distributed forage resources, an animal’s distribution may reflect the distribution of the resources if the population is forage-limited in time or space. This may be particularly explicit in climatically extreme and seasonally variable environments, notably alpine and polar environments during winter. Sustainable management considers the amount of available alpine ground lichen in winter as a predictor of carrying capacity for the last remaining populations of wild European Mountain reindeer Rangifer tarandus tarandus in alpine environments in South Norway. Ground lichen growth is constrained to elevated, wind-blown, snow-free ridges. However, wild Mountain reindeer also persist in areas providing little lichen resources. Our alternative functional hypothesis is that the critical resource is the amount of snow-free feeding areas during winter, which provide direct access to forage, likely to be energy-profitable regardless of the type of vegetation. We sampled animal-borne videos from wild Mountain reindeer during maximum accumulation of snow in late winter/spring, in three contrasting areas providing variable amounts of ground lichen and alternative vegetation resources. Direct observations of reindeer foraging via videos document an active selection and strong preference for feeding on snow-free patches, regardless of type of vegetation. Active ‘cratering’ in snow was not observed. In contrast, walking behaviours occurred much more frequently across snow-covered areas. Remote sensing data and analyses corroborated these observations. In the sustainable management of wild Mountain reindeer amounts of vegetated snow-free areas is an important functional predictor of winter carrying capacity. Alpine · Winter · Wild reindeer · Video · Snow-free areaspublishedVersio

Local self-determination, process-focus and subordination of environmental concerns

Globalization and region enlargement has increased the emphasis of local authorities on being competitive for inward investment and taxpayers. This can lead to a subordination of environmental concerns. In order to secure environmental and other national interests, planning and regulation at supra-local level is required, especially if the local authorities have different motivations and goals from the central government. The central government policy guidelines of the Norwegian planning system and the possibility for regional state authorities to make objections are an apparatus to protect national interests in planning. However, there has been a significant change in the central government’s practice when deciding on objections by regional state authorities against municipal plans since the new right-wing Norwegian government came into power. The losers from the changed practice are the environmental interests, widely defined. The new government’s prioritization of local self-determination and planning processes rather than contents resonates with key features of neoliberalism, but also with important elements of communicative planning theory.Local self-determination, process-focus and subordination of environmental concernsacceptedVersio