Public health triangulation: approach and application to synthesizing data to understand national and local HIV epidemics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Public health triangulation is a process for reviewing, synthesising and interpreting secondary data from multiple sources that bear on the same question to make public health decisions. It can be used to understand the dynamics of HIV transmission and to measure the impact of public health programs. While traditional intervention research and metaanalysis would be ideal sources of information for public health decision making, they are infrequently available, and often decisions can be based only on surveillance and survey data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The process involves examination of a wide variety of data sources and both biological, behavioral and program data and seeks input from stakeholders to formulate meaningful public health questions. Finally and most importantly, it uses the results to inform public health decision-making. There are 12 discrete steps in the triangulation process, which included identification and assessment of key questions, identification of data sources, refining questions, gathering data and reports, assessing the quality of those data and reports, formulating hypotheses to explain trends in the data, corroborating or refining working hypotheses, drawing conclusions, communicating results and recommendations and taking public health action.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Triangulation can be limited by the quality of the original data, the potentials for ecological fallacy and "data dredging" and reproducibility of results.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Nonetheless, we believe that public health triangulation allows for the interpretation of data sets that cannot be analyzed using meta-analysis and can be a helpful adjunct to surveillance, to formal public health intervention research and to monitoring and evaluation, which in turn lead to improved national strategic planning and resource allocation.</p

A Surprising Prevention Success: Why Did the HIV Epidemic Decline in Zimbabwe?

Daniel Halperin and colleagues examine reasons for the remarkable decline in HIV in Zimbabwe, in the context of severe social, political, and economic disruption

Selecting HIV infection prevention interventions in the mature HIV epidemic in Malawi using the mode of transmission model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malawi is reassessing its HIV prevention strategy in the light of a limited reduction in the epidemic. No community based incidence studies have been carried out in Malawi, so estimates of where new infections are occurring require the use of mathematical models and knowledge of the size and sexual behaviour of different groups. The results can help to choose where HIV prevention interventions are most needed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The UNAIDS Mode of Transmission model was populated with Malawi data and estimates of incident cases calculated for each exposure group. Scenarios of single and multiple interventions of varying success were used to identify those interventions most likely to reduce incident cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The groups accounting for most new infections were the low-risk heterosexual group - the discordant couples (37%) and those who had casual sex and their partners (a further 16% and 27% respectively) of new cases.</p> <p>Circumcision, condoms with casual sex and bar girls and improved STI treatment had limited effect in reducing incident cases, while condom use with discordant couples, abstinence and a zero-grazing campaign had major effects. The combination of a successful strategy to eliminate multiple concurrent partners and a successful strategy to eliminate all infections between discordant couples would reduce incident cases by 99%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A revitalised HIV prevention strategy will need to include interventions which tackle the two modes of transmission now found to be so important in Malawi - <b>concurrency and discordancy</b>.</p

A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV Incidence from Three National HIV Surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated "excess" HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002-2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15-49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2-3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15-24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5-6.5). In the period 2005-2008, incidence among men and women aged 15-49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6-2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002-2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15-24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence

Experience of sexual coercion and risky sexual behavior among Ugandan university students

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Growing worldwide evidence shows that the experience of sexual coercion is fairly prevalent among young people and is associated with risky sexual behavior thereafter. The causal mechanisms behind this are unclear but may be dependent on specific contextual determinants. Little is known about factors that could buffer the negative effects of coercion. The aim of this study was to assess the association between the experience of sexual coercion and risky sexual behavior among university students of both sexes in Uganda.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In 2005, 980 (80%) out of a total of 1,220 students enrolled in Mbarara University of Science and Technology in Uganda participated in a self-administered questionnaire covering socio-demographic and religious factors, social capital, mental health, alcohol use, and sexual behavior. A validated scale of six items was used to assess the experience of sexual coercion. Logistic regression analyses were applied to control for confounders. Potential buffering factors were analyzed by testing for effect modification.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Fifty-nine percent of those who responded had previously had sexual intercourse. Among the male students 29.0%, and among the female students 33.1% reported having had some experience of sexual coercion. After controlling for age, gender, and educational level of household of origin, role of religion and trust in others sexual coercion was found to be statistically significantly associated with previously had sex (OR 1.6, 95% CI; 1.1-2.3), early sexual debut (OR 2.4, 95% CI; 1.5-3.7), as well as with having had a great number of sexual partners (OR 1.9, 95% CI; 1.2-3.0), but not with inconsistent condom use.</p> <p>Scoring low on an assessment of mental health problems, reporting high trust in others, or stating that religion played a major role in one's family of origin seemed to buffer the negative effect that the experience of sexual coercion had on the likelihood of having many sexual partners.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The findings of this study suggest that the experience of sexual coercion is common among youth/young adults in Uganda and is subsequently associated with risky sexual behavior in both sexes. The existence of individual and contextual factors that buffer the effects mentioned was also demonstrated. In the Ugandan context, this has implications for policy formulation and the implementation of preventive strategies for combating HIV/AIDS.</p

Relatively Low HIV Infection Rates in Rural Uganda, but with High Potential for a Rise: A Cohort Study in Kayunga District, Uganda

BACKGROUND: Few studies have been conducted in Uganda to identify and quantify the determinants of HIV-1 infection. We report results from a community-based cohort study, whose primary objectives were to determine HIV-1 prevalence, incidence, and determinants of these infections, among other objectives. METHODOLOGY: Consenting volunteers from the rural district of Kayunga in Uganda aged 15-49 years were enrolled between March and July 2006. Participants were evaluated every six months. A questionnaire that collected information on behavioral and other HIV-1 risk factors was administered, and a blood sample obtained for laboratory analysis at each study visit. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HIV-1 prevalence among the 2025 participants was 9.9% (95% CI = 8.6%-11.2%). By the end of 12 months of follow-up, 1689.7 person-years had been accumulated, with a median follow-up time of 11.97 months. Thirteen HIV-1 incident cases were detected giving an annual HIV-1 incidence of 0.77% (95% CI = 0.35-1.19). Prevalence of HSV-2 infection was 57% and was strongly associated with prevalent HIV-1 infection (adjusted Odds Ratio = 3.9, 95% CI = 2.50-6.17); as well as incident HIV-1 infection (adjusted Rate Ratio (RR) = 8.7, 95% CI = 1.11-67.2). The single most important behavioral characteristic associated with incident HIV infection was the number of times in the past 6 months, a participant had sex with person(s) they suspected/knew were having sex with others; attaining statistical significance at 10 times and higher (adjusted RR = 6.3, 95% CI = 1.73-23.1). By the end of 12 months of follow-up, 259 participants (13%) were lost to follow-up, 13 (0.6%) had died, and 2 (0.1%) had withdrawn consent. CONCLUSIONS: Despite relatively low HIV-1 incidence observed in this community, prevalence remains relatively high. In the presence of high prevalence of HSV-2 infection and the behavioral characteristic of having sex with more than one partner, there is potential for increase in HIV-1 incidence

Assessment of BED HIV-1 Incidence Assay in Seroconverter Cohorts: Effect of Individuals with Long-Term Infection and Importance of Stable Incidence

BACKGROUND: Performance of the BED assay in estimating HIV-1 incidence has previously been evaluated by using longitudinal specimens from persons with incident HIV infections, but questions remain about its accuracy. We sought to assess its performance in three longitudinal cohorts from Thailand where HIV-1 CRF01_AE and subtype B' dominate the epidemic. DESIGN: BED testing was conducted in two longitudinal cohorts with only incident infections (a military conscript cohort and an injection drug user cohort) and in one longitudinal cohort (an HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial cohort) that also included long-term infections. METHODS: Incidence estimates were generated conventionally (based on the number of annual serocoversions) and by using BED test results in the three cohorts. Adjusted incidence was calculated where appropriate. RESULTS: For each longitudinal cohort the BED incidence estimates and the conventional incidence estimates were similar when only newly infected persons were tested, whether infected with CRF01_AE or subtype B'. When the analysis included persons with long-term infections (to mimic a true cross-sectional cohort), BED incidence estimates were higher, although not significantly, than the conventional incidence estimates. After adjustment, the BED incidence estimates were closer to the conventional incidence estimates. When the conventional incidence varied over time, as in the early phase of the injection drug user cohort, the difference between the two estimates increased, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the performance of incidence assays requires the inclusion of a substantial number of cohort-derived specimens from individuals with long-term HIV infection and, ideally, the use of cohorts in which incidence remained stable. Appropriate adjustments of the BED incidence estimates generate estimates similar to those generated conventionally

Pattern and levels of spending allocated to HIV prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>AIDS continues to spread at an estimated 2.6 new million infections per year, making the prevention of HIV transmission a critical public health issue. The dramatic growth in global resources for AIDS has produced a steady scale-up in treatment and care that has not been equally matched by preventive services. This paper is a detailed analysis of how countries are choosing to spend these more limited prevention funds.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed prevention spending in 69 low- and middle-income countries with a variety of epidemic types, using data from national domestic spending reports. Spending information was from public and international sources and was analyzed based on the National AIDS Spending Assessment (NASA) methods and classifications.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, prevention received 21% of HIV resources compared to 53% of funding allocated to treatment and care. Prevention relies primarily on international donors, who accounted for 65% of all prevention resources and 93% of funding in low-income countries. For the subset of 53 countries that provided detailed spending information, we found that 60% of prevention resources were spent in five areas: communication for social and behavioral change (16%), voluntary counselling and testing (14%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (13%), blood safety (10%) and condom programs (7%). Only 7% of funding was spent on most-at-risk populations and less than 1% on male circumcision. Spending patterns did not consistently reflect current evidence and the HIV specific transmission context of each country.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite recognition of its importance, countries are not allocating resources in ways that are likely to achieve the greatest impact on prevention across all epidemic types. Within prevention spending itself, a greater share of resources need to be matched with interventions that approximate the specific needs and drivers of each country's epidemic.</p

Decline in HIV Prevalence among Young Women in Zambia: National-Level Estimates of Trends Mask Geographical and Socio-Demographic Differences

Background: A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15–24 years in Zambia. Design and Methods: We analysed ANC data for women aged 15–24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994–2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15–24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people. Findings: Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10 % and 68 % among urban women, and from stability to 86 % among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002