Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993-2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.Peer reviewe

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993-2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTISD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTISD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTISD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming

Recent changes in the status of Steller's Eider Polysticta stelleri wintering in Europe: a decline or redistribution?

Steller's Eider Polysticta stelleri has a restricted arctic breeding range. The world population declined to c. 220,000 individuals in the late 1990s from an estimated 400,000-500,000 in the 1960s. The species has a limited global wintering distribution, occurring in marine habitats in north-east Europe, islands close to Kamchatka in Russia, and the eastern Aleutian Islands and south-west Alaska. European wintering numbers were estimated at 30,000-50,000 in the early 1990s, when the population was considered of favourable conservation status. Recent census data from the most important European wintering sites show annual declines of 8% in Norway since 1984, 9% in Estonia since 1994 and 22% in Lithuania since 1995, suggesting an overall 65% reduction in Europe. Counts in 1994 suggested that 30-50% of the European population wintered in Russia at that time. Current census data from Russia show similar declines along monitored sections of the Kola Peninsula wintering grounds since 1994. Accounting for trends in Russia, the current European wintering population could possibly stand at 10,000-15,000 individuals (a more than a 50% decline in 10 years), qualifying this population as Endangered under IUCN criteria. The changes in Baltic/Norwegian wintering numbers did not correlate with changes in the extent of ice-free marine waters in the Kola Peninsula/White Sea areas, but changes in annual numbers in Norway were correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation indices. Variation in annual numbers in the Baltic Sea correlated with projected number of juveniles among wintering birds. However, none of the possible causes discussed in this paper could fully explain the decline in Steller's Eider, confirming the need for comprehensive monitoring of the population throughout its winter range and for cohesive demographic monitoring to target effective conservation action

Recent changes in the abundance of Common Pochard Aythya ferina breeding in Europe

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Long-term population trends and shifts in distribution of Bewick's swans cygnus columbianus bewickii wintering in northwest Europe

Coordinated international censuses of the Northwest European Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii population have been undertaken across the swans' wintering range at c. 5-year intervals since 1984. During the early years of the study, numbers increased steadily to a peak of 29,780 individuals in January 1995, but then declined by 39.4% to 18,057 swans counted in January 2010 before showing a partial recovery to 20,149 recorded in January 2015. Changes in distribution across the wintering range were also recorded; a higher proportion of the population now remains in more easterly countries (notably Germany) in mid-winter, whilst only a handful of birds migrated to Ireland (at the western edge of the range) during the 2000s compared to >1,000 wintering there at the start of the study. Variation between censuses in the proportion of swans recorded in different parts of the range were attributable to weather conditions, with more swans wintering further north in warmer years. The overall percentage of cygnets recorded in each of the census years ranged from 9.6% in 2010 to 13.2% in 2005, with no obvious consistency over time in the distribution of cygnets across the wintering range. There were however changes between 1990 and 2015 in the swans' use of feeding habitats, with a decline in the proportion of birds on pasture and a corresponding increase in those on arable land. Decreases in the total population size and changes in distribution in the 21st century have implications for the designation and resultant protection of sites of international importance for the species