Resurgence of Academic Responses

Resurgence is the recurrence of a previously reinforced response after a more recently reinforced response is placed on extinction. Resurgence may explain the recurrence of socially appropriate behavior, including academic responding, but this had not yet been empirically demonstrated. The aim of this study was to determine if resurgence would occur when a participant solved quadratic equations using multiple methods. Each participant was taught two methods of solving quadratic equations across experimental phases, followed by a phase in which neither method resulted in the correct solution. In the first phase, only simple factoring was reinforced. In the second phase, only the AC method was reinforced. In the third phase, neither of these methods was reinforced (both were placed on extinction). Half of the participants attempted to use simple factoring to solve an equation in the third phase, but the extent to which this recurrence constituted resurgence was unclear. The lack of consistent intersubject replication indicates that an uncontrolled variable may be affecting the likelihood that a response will persist in an individual’s repertoire. Identifying the variables that increase the persistence of a response may inform ways to promote maintenance of academic responses

The silence of the lamps : visibility, agency and artistic objects in the play production process

This thesis is a case study which looks at the creation of two theatre productions. Using the literature of Actor-Network Theory as a methodological provocation, it analyses the processes by which networks of actors created these theatre pieces with particular attention to where agency was observed. Through data gathered through observing material interactions, the thesis develops the concept of the (play)text: an object that is an expression of the ideas of the text, but is not the text itself – rather, a bricolage of ‘translations’ of a piece of written and rehearsed work bound together by time and combined action. Conceiving of the eventual product – the (play)text in performance – as an example of the ANT concept of an agencement, a network of different people and objects working together to maintain a stable construction, but one which perpetually refines and redefines each of its component parts – this thesis proposes that the (play)text is an example of a dynamic and fractional artistic object, stabilised only briefly in the moments of its performance. Examining the theatre production process in this way contributes to ANT literature by providing specific examples of an artistic object created materially and agentively; it also highlights the limitations of the ways in which theatre has been used as a metaphor within Organisation Studies. Finally, it contributes to work on process change in showing an object which is, though it appears constantly improvisational and changing in its form, stabilised by material interactions

Charles Asbury Stephens Correspondence

Entries include brief biographical information, a typed letter on receipt of Tobie\u27s first novel The Embers on the Hearth: A Story of William\u27s Family commenting on his description of character and family presented with a Maine State Library postcard returned to sender featuring a 1954 Maine State Police, Division of Traffic & Safety, Why Speed to Destruction? postmark

Shhhh! Can You Keep a Secret?»: Reflecting upon the experience of working with «secret keepers» in social work

Working with adults who keep secrets can be complex, both in a practical sense and in terms of assessing and managing risk. This paper uses the theoretical framework of social construction to explore the intersubjective meaning-making of secrets and secrecy in social work, drawing upon current research, UK legislation and contemporary social work practice. The overall aim of this investigation is to explore the perception of secrets from the service user’s and the social worker’s points of view, as well as exploring the impact this has on the behaviour of all concerned. Meaning-making in relation to secrets and secrecy may become a source of tension between service users and social workers due to the different socially constructed understandings of secrets, the privacy of family life and the intervention role of social services. From this theoretical position, a critical reflection on secrets held by service users and their negotiated relationship with social workers demonstrates how complex the issue is in practice and offers insights into how this dilemma can be solved

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to seven months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40% of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim to improve climate-model based seasonal streamflow forecasting

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

Abstract. The inclusion of uncertainty in flood forecasts is a recent, important yet challenging endeavour. In the chaotic and far from certain world we live in, probabilistic estimates of potential future floods are vital. By showing the uncertainty surrounding a prediction, probabilistic forecasts can give an earlier indication of potential future floods, increasing the amount of time we have to prepare. In practice, making a binary decision based on probabilistic information is challenging. The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for managing risks of flooding in England, is in the process of a transition to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts. A series of interviews were carried out with EA decision-makers (i.e. duty officers) to understand how this transition might affect their decision-making activities. The interviews highlight the complex and evolving landscape (made of alternative hard scientific facts and soft values) in which EA duty officers operate, where forecasts play an integral role in decision-making. While EA duty officers already account for uncertainty and communicate their confidence in the system they use, they view the transition to probabilistic flood forecasts as both an opportunity and a challenge in practice. Based on the interview results, recommendations are made to the EA to ensure a successful transition to probabilistic forecasts for flood early warning in England. We believe that this paper is of wide interest for a range of sectors at the intersection between geoscience and society. A glossary of technical terms is highlighted by asterisks in the text and included in Appendix A