Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET): Following the Evolution of Boundary Layer Cloud Systems with the NSFNCAR GV

The Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) study was designed to describe and explain the evolution of the boundary layer aerosol, cloud, and thermodynamic structures along trajectories within the North Pacific trade winds. The study centered on seven round trips of the National Science FoundationNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NSFNCAR) Gulfstream V (GV) between Sacramento, California, and Kona, Hawaii, between 7 July and 9 August 2015. The CSET observing strategy was to sample aerosol, cloud, and boundary layer properties upwind from the transition zone over the North Pacific and to resample these areas two days later. Global Forecast System forecast trajectories were used to plan the outbound flight to Hawaii with updated forecast trajectories setting the return flight plan two days later. Two key elements of the CSET observing system were the newly developed High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Cloud Radar (HCR) and the high-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL). Together they provided unprecedented characterizations of aerosol, cloud, and precipitation structures that were combined with in situ measurements of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and turbulence properties. The cloud systems sampled included solid stratocumulus infused with smoke from Canadian wildfires, mesoscale cloudprecipitation complexes, and patches of shallow cumuli in very clean environments. Ultraclean layers observed frequently near the top of the boundary layer were often associated with shallow, optically thin, layered veil clouds. The extensive aerosol, cloud, drizzle, and boundary layer sampling made over open areas of the northeast Pacific along 2-day trajectories during CSET will be an invaluable resource for modeling studies of boundary layer cloud system evolution and its governing physical processes

Sources and characteristics of summertime organic aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: perspective from measurements and WRF-Chem modeling

Abstract. The evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements and chemical transport modeling. Measurements indicated significant production of secondary OA (SOA), with enhancement ratio of OA with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) reaching 0.085±0.003 µg m−3 ppbv−1. At background mixing ratios of CO, up to  ∼  1.8 µg m−3 background OA was observed, suggesting significant non-combustion contribution to OA in the Front Range. The mean concentration of OA in plumes with a high influence of oil and natural gas (O&G) emissions was  ∼  40 % higher than in urban-influenced plumes. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) confirmed a dominant contribution of secondary, oxygenated OA (OOA) in the boundary layer instead of fresh, hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA). Combinations of primary OA (POA) volatility assumptions, aging of semi-volatile species, and different emission estimates from the O&G sector were used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulation scenarios. The assumption of semi-volatile POA resulted in greater than a factor of 10 lower POA concentrations compared to PMF-resolved HOA. Including top-down modified O&G emissions resulted in substantially better agreements in modeled ethane, toluene, hydroxyl radical, and ozone compared to measurements in the high-O&G-influenced plumes. By including emissions from the O&G sector using the top-down approach, it was estimated that the O&G sector contributed to  <  5 % of total OA, but up to 38 % of anthropogenic SOA (aSOA) in the region. The best agreement between the measured and simulated median OA was achieved by limiting the extent of biogenic hydrocarbon aging and consequently biogenic SOA (bSOA) production. Despite a lower production of bSOA in this scenario, contribution of bSOA to total SOA remained high at 40–54 %. Future studies aiming at a better emissions characterization of POA and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) from the O&G sector are valuable

Human papillomavirus circulating tumor DNA: a diagnostic tool in squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary—a pilot study

IntroductionNeck mass is the most common presentation of human papillomavirus-related (HPV-related) oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Recently, circulating tumor HPV-DNA (ctHPVDNA) assays have been developed to detect active OPSCC. This pilot study investigates the diagnostic accuracy of ctHPVDNA in establishing HPV status for known vs. unknown OPSCC presenting as a neck mass.MethodsA single-institution pilot study was conducted on all patients with OPSCC presenting as a neck mass between 2021 and 2022. The diagnostic accuracy of ctHPVDNA was compared to that of standard diagnostic procedures used to obtain HPV status according to the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) guideline for squamous cell carcinoma of unknown primary (SCCUP). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of ctHPVDNA were calculated.ResultsA total of 27 patients were included; 70.4% were current or former smokers, 48.1% (N = 13) had identifiable primaries, and 51.9% (N = 14) had SCCUP. Four patients with known primaries required operative direct laryngoscopy with biopsy (DLB) to establish HPV status. Two patients with SCCUP underwent diagnostic transoral robotic surgery (TORS) to establish HPV status and localize the primary. Twelve patients underwent therapeutic TORS and neck dissection. The gold standard for HPV status was based on final histopathologic p16 or HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) staining during workup/treatment. ctHPVDNA had 95.8% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% PPV, and 75% NPV in predicting HPV-positive OPSCC in the whole sample. Binary logistic regression model using ctHPVDNA results to predict HPV-positive OPSCC was significant (−2 log likelihood = 5.55, χ2 = 8.70, p <.01, Nagelkerke’s R squared = .67). Among patients with identifiable primaries, all patients had HPV-positive tumors on final pathology, and ctHPVDNA was positive in 100%. In the unknown primary patients, ctHPVDNA had 90.9% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 100% PPV, and 75% NPV.DiscussionctHPVDNA demonstrated good diagnostic accuracy for both known and unknown primaries. Incorporation of ctHPVDNA into the diagnostic algorithm for SCCUP may reduce the need for multiple procedures to establish HPV status

An Observationally Constrained Evaluation of the Oxidative Capacity in the Tropical Western Pacific Troposphere

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main daytime oxidant in the troposphere and determines the atmospheric lifetimes of many compounds. We use aircraft measurements of O3, H2O, NO, and other species from the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign, which occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) during January–February 2014, to constrain a photochemical box model and estimate concentrations of OH throughout the troposphere. We find that tropospheric column OH (OHCOL) inferred from CONTRAST observations is 12 to 40% higher than found in chemical transport models (CTMs), including CAM-chem-SD run with 2014 meteorology as well as eight models that participated in POLMIP (2008 meteorology). Part of this discrepancy is due to a clear-sky sampling bias that affects CONTRAST observations; accounting for this bias and also for a small difference in chemical mechanism results in our empirically based value of OHCOL being 0 to 20% larger than found within global models. While these global models simulate observed O3 reasonably well, they underestimate NOx (NO + NO2) by a factor of two, resulting in OHCOL ~30% lower than box model simulations constrained by observed NO. Underestimations by CTMs of observed CH3CHO throughout the troposphere and of HCHO in the upper troposphere further contribute to differences between our constrained estimates of OH and those calculated by CTMs. Finally, our calculations do not support the prior suggestion of the existence of a tropospheric OH minimum in the TWP, because during January–February 2014 observed levels of O3 and NO were considerably larger than previously reported values in the TWP

Stratospheric Injection of Brominated Very Short‐Lived Substances: Aircraft Observations in the Western Pacific and Representation in Global Models

We quantify the stratospheric injection of brominated very short‐lived substances (VSLS) based on aircraft observations acquired in winter 2014 above the Tropical Western Pacific during the CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) campaigns. The overall contribution of VSLS to stratospheric bromine was determined to be 5.0 ± 2.1 ppt, in agreement with the 5 ± 3 ppt estimate provided in the 2014 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Ozone Assessment report (WMO 2014), but with lower uncertainty. Measurements of organic bromine compounds, including VSLS, were analyzed using CFC‐11 as a reference stratospheric tracer. From this analysis, 2.9 ± 0.6 ppt of bromine enters the stratosphere via organic source gas injection of VSLS. This value is two times the mean bromine content of VSLS measured at the tropical tropopause, for regions outside of the Tropical Western Pacific, summarized in WMO 2014. A photochemical box model, constrained to CONTRAST observations, was used to estimate inorganic bromine from measurements of BrO collected by two instruments. The analysis indicates that 2.1 ± 2.1 ppt of bromine enters the stratosphere via inorganic product gas injection. We also examine the representation of brominated VSLS within 14 global models that participated in the Chemistry‐Climate Model Initiative. The representation of stratospheric bromine in these models generally lies within the range of our empirical estimate. Models that include explicit representations of VSLS compare better with bromine observations in the lower stratosphere than models that utilize longer‐lived chemicals as a surrogate for VSLS

Mercury Emission Ratios from Coal-Fired Power Plants in the Southeastern United States during NOMADSS

We use measurements made onboard the National Science Foundation’s C-130 research aircraft during the 2013 Nitrogen, Oxidants, Mercury, and Aerosol Distributions, Sources, and Sinks (NOMADSS) experiment to examine total Hg (THg) emission ratios (EmRs) for six coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) in the southeastern U.S. We compare observed enhancement ratios (ERs) with EmRs calculated using Hg emissions data from two inventories: the National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and the Toxics Release Inventory (TRI). For four CFPPs, our measured ERs are strongly correlated with EmRs based on the 2011 NEI (<i>r</i>² = 0.97), although the inventory data exhibit a −39% low bias. Our measurements agree best (to within ±32%) with the NEI Hg data when the latter were derived from on-site emissions measurements. Conversely, the NEI underestimates by approximately 1 order of magnitude the ERs we measured for one previously untested CFPP. Measured ERs are uncorrelated with values based on the 2013 TRI, which also tends to be biased low. Our results suggest that the Hg inventories can be improved by targeting CFPPs for which the NEI- and TRI-based EmRs have significant disagreements. We recommend that future versions of the Hg inventories should provide greater traceability and uncertainty estimates

Sources and characteristics of summertime organic aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: perspective from measurements and WRF-Chem modeling

Abstract. The evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements and chemical transport modeling. Measurements indicated significant production of secondary OA (SOA), with enhancement ratio of OA with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) reaching 0.085±0.003 µg m−3 ppbv−1. At background mixing ratios of CO, up to  ∼  1.8 µg m−3 background OA was observed, suggesting significant non-combustion contribution to OA in the Front Range. The mean concentration of OA in plumes with a high influence of oil and natural gas (O&amp;G) emissions was  ∼  40 % higher than in urban-influenced plumes. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) confirmed a dominant contribution of secondary, oxygenated OA (OOA) in the boundary layer instead of fresh, hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA). Combinations of primary OA (POA) volatility assumptions, aging of semi-volatile species, and different emission estimates from the O&amp;G sector were used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulation scenarios. The assumption of semi-volatile POA resulted in greater than a factor of 10 lower POA concentrations compared to PMF-resolved HOA. Including top-down modified O&amp;G emissions resulted in substantially better agreements in modeled ethane, toluene, hydroxyl radical, and ozone compared to measurements in the high-O&amp;G-influenced plumes. By including emissions from the O&amp;G sector using the top-down approach, it was estimated that the O&amp;G sector contributed to  &lt;  5 % of total OA, but up to 38 % of anthropogenic SOA (aSOA) in the region. The best agreement between the measured and simulated median OA was achieved by limiting the extent of biogenic hydrocarbon aging and consequently biogenic SOA (bSOA) production. Despite a lower production of bSOA in this scenario, contribution of bSOA to total SOA remained high at 40–54 %. Future studies aiming at a better emissions characterization of POA and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) from the O&amp;G sector are valuable

Sources and Characteristics of Summertime Organic Aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: Perspective from Measurements and WRF-Chem Modeling

Abstract. The evolution of organic aerosols (OAs) and their precursors in the boundary layer (BL) of the Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in situ measurements and chemical transport modeling. Measurements indicated significant production of secondary OA (SOA), with enhancement ratio of OA with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) reaching 0.085±0.003 µg m−3 ppbv−1. At background mixing ratios of CO, up to  ∼  1.8 µg m−3 background OA was observed, suggesting significant non-combustion contribution to OA in the Front Range. The mean concentration of OA in plumes with a high influence of oil and natural gas (O&amp;G) emissions was  ∼  40 % higher than in urban-influenced plumes. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) confirmed a dominant contribution of secondary, oxygenated OA (OOA) in the boundary layer instead of fresh, hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA). Combinations of primary OA (POA) volatility assumptions, aging of semi-volatile species, and different emission estimates from the O&amp;G sector were used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulation scenarios. The assumption of semi-volatile POA resulted in greater than a factor of 10 lower POA concentrations compared to PMF-resolved HOA. Including top-down modified O&amp;G emissions resulted in substantially better agreements in modeled ethane, toluene, hydroxyl radical, and ozone compared to measurements in the high-O&amp;G-influenced plumes. By including emissions from the O&amp;G sector using the top-down approach, it was estimated that the O&amp;G sector contributed to  &lt;  5 % of total OA, but up to 38 % of anthropogenic SOA (aSOA) in the region. The best agreement between the measured and simulated median OA was achieved by limiting the extent of biogenic hydrocarbon aging and consequently biogenic SOA (bSOA) production. Despite a lower production of bSOA in this scenario, contribution of bSOA to total SOA remained high at 40–54 %. Future studies aiming at a better emissions characterization of POA and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (IVOCs) from the O&amp;G sector are valuable

Sources and Characteristics of Summertime Organic Aerosol in the Colorado Front Range: Perspective from Measurements and WRF-Chem Modeling

Abstract. Evolution of organic aerosol (OA) and their precursors in the boundary layer of Colorado Front Range during the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment (FRAPPÉ, July–August 2014) was analyzed by in-situ measurements and chemical transport modeling. Measurements indicated significant production of secondary OA (SOA), with enhancement ratio of OA with respect to carbon monoxide (CO) reaching 0.068 ± 0.004 μg m−3 ppbv−1. At background mixing ratios of CO, up to ~ 2 μg m−3 background OA was observed, suggesting significant non-combustion contribution to OA in the Front Range. The mean concentration of OA in plumes with a high influence of oil and natural gas (O&amp;G) emissions was ~ 40 % higher than in urban-influenced plumes. Positive matrix factorization confirmed a dominant contribution of secondary, oxygenated OA (OOA) in the boundary layer instead of fresh, hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA). Combinations of primary OA (POA) volatility assumptions, aging of semi-volatile species, and different emission estimates from the O&amp;G sector were used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulation scenarios. The assumption of semi-volatile POA resulted in greater than a factor of 10 lower POA concentrations compared to PMF-resolved HOA. Including a top-down modified O&amp;G emissions resulted in substantially better agreements in modeled ethane, toluene, hydroxyl radical, and ozone compared to measurements in the high O&amp;G-influenced plumes. By including emissions from the O&amp;G sector using the top-down approach, it was estimated that the O&amp;G sector contributed t