America After Trump: The Rise of National Conservatism in the United States, Its Potential for Electoral Success, and the Future of the Republican Party

Since Donald Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election, numerous conservative factions have attempted to fill the void and become dominant within the Republican Party. One of the most visible factions vying for power are the National Conservatives, but this movement has received little examination in academic literature due to its recent formation in 2019. Animated by a vision of nationalism based on historical tradition and the power of the state to push socially conservative goals, National Conservatism represents a distinct political movement that draws on various strands of existing conservative thought, although it does not clearly resemble any of them on its own. At the same time, National Conservatism’s international nature and its abstract theorizing leaves many tensions unresolved, especially the problem of determining which historical traditions count in forming nations. Overall, the political potential of National Conservatism appears limited based on current taxonomies and polling of Republican voters and the public at large. The structural advantages for Republicans in the American electoral system and the anxieties that National Conservatism focuses on, however, leave an opening for this or similar movements to gain hold. Creating an alternative framework that attends to Americans’ discontent with the liberal order is therefore a necessity

Efektifitas Pelaksanaan Program Penguatan Kapasitas Kesiapsiagaan dan Tanggap Darurat Bencana (Learn II) oleh Heks dan Yayasan Holi Ana'a

Pay close atention to condition of geographical, geologic, hydrologic and demography, in the fact Indonesia has highly prone to consist of disaster which caused of nature, unnature even human. On December, 26th 2004 a huge earthquake occured in north coastal area of Sumatera Island which took more than 220.000 victims. Non Government Organization is known have a big role after disaster occured because normally NGO is close to the people who got the impact. Therefore, by those LEARN II Project NGO who got the learning is expected can spreading out knowledge of disaster to the people so that they can also behave and more prepared when disaster comes. The goal of this reasearch study is to know about how far effectivness the implementation of LEARN II Project by HEKS and Holi ana'a Foundation. The result of this research study is expected to be refrence in order to develop concept and theory related to Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Response.. This research study was held in The Center of Disaster Risk Development Management HEKS coordinated with Holi ana'a Foundation which located in Medan that also named with Head Office of LEARN Project. Population in this research study consists on LEARN II member per a year starting from July 2012 until June 2013 who included in first cycle until sixth cycle learning and total member is 46 NGOs. The type of this Research is descriptive with qualitative approach. To obtain necessary data, this research study using data collection technique and field study which consists of questionnaire, interview and observation. Based on the result of data analysis, it was found that the implementation of LEARN II project is effective. There was an increase of capacity of preparedness and disaster emergency response to member of NGO after participate the LEARN II Project. LEARN II Project also results trained personal who include directly to the people when disaster occured

Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of Typhoid in Malaria Endemic Settings

Typhoid and malaria co-infection is a major public health problem in many developing countries. In this paper, a deterministic model for malaria and typhoid co-infection is proposed and analyzed. It has been established that the model exhibits a backward bifurcation phenomenon. Overall, the study reveals that a typhoid outbreak in malaria endemic settings may lead to higher cumulative cases of dually-infected individuals displaying clinical symptoms of both infections than singly-infected individuals displaying clinical symptoms of either malaria or typhoid

Modelling the effects of condom use and antiretroviral therapy in controlling HIV/AIDS among heterosexuals, homosexuals and bisexuals.

A deterministic compartmental sex-structured HIV/AIDS model for assessing the effects of homosexuals and bisexuals in heterosexual settings in which homosexuality and bisexuality issues have remained taboo is presented. We extend the model to focus on the effects of condom use as a single strategy approach in HIV prevention in the absence of any other intervention strategies. Initially, we model the use of male condoms, followed by incorporating the use of both the female and male condoms. The model includes two primary factors in condom use to control HIV which are condom efficacy and compliance. Reproductive numbers for these models are computed and compared to assess the effectiveness of male and female condom use in a community. We also extend the basic model to consider the effects of antiretroviral therapy as a single strategy. The results from the study show that condoms can reduce the number of secondary infectives and thus can slow the development of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Further, we note from the study that treatment of AIDS patients may enlarge the epidemic when the treatment drugs are not 100% effective and when treated AIDS patients indulge in risky sexual behaviour. Thus, the treatment with amelioration of AIDS patients should be accompanied with intense public health educational programs, which are capable of changing the attitude of treated AIDS patients towards safe sex. It is also shown from the study that the use of condoms in settings with the treatment may help in reducing the number of secondary infections thus slowing the epidemic

Characterising cancer burden and quality of care at two palliative care clinics in Malawi

Background: This paper describes cancer burden and compares characteristics of cancer patients enrolled at 2 palliative care facilities of contrasting resources and geographical locations in Malawi. It also assesses the extent of differences in service delivery and the impact these might have on outcomes.Methods: Data on all cancer patients registered between October 2010 and October 2015 at Tiyanjane Clinic (at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre) and Mzuzu Central Hospital (MCH) palliative care clinics were extracted and analysed. Key informant in-depth interviews were carried out at both sites. Thematic analysis was used for qualitative data and Excel 2010 and Stata 12 were used for analysis of quantitative data.Results: Quantitative: There were 1362 and 633 cancer patients at Tiyanjane and MCH, respectively. Overall, females predominated over males (55.8% vs 42.8%); however, Tiyanjane had more males (52.2% vs 45.8%), which was contrary to Mzuzu (77.4% females vs 22.6% males). The 35- to 54-year age group was predominant at both Tiyanjane (43.1%) and Mzuzu (40.1%). Overall, the most common cancers were Kaposi’s sarcoma (26.9%), cervical cancer (26.8%), oesophageal cancer (14.2%), hepatocellular carcinoma (4.9%), and bladder cancer (3.0%). Histologically confirmed diagnoses accounted for 13% of cases at Tiyanjane, whereas all patients from MCH were diagnosed clinically.Qualitative: Palliative care services were free of charge at both facilities, and owing to the expansion of services to district hospitals, the workload at central hospitals had been reduced. Between the 2 sites, there were differences in follow-up procedures, drug availabilities, as well as human resource capacity, with Mzuzu palliative care facility facing more extensive challenges.Conclusions: The characteristics of patients seen at each site varied according to services available. Quality of care was assessed as superior at Tiyanjane, demonstrating the importance of multiple stakeholder involvement in the delivery of palliative care services

Modeling the effects of temperature and heterogeneous biting exposure on chikungunya virus disease dynamics

This research article was published by Elsevier, 2022Within the last decades, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes species mosquitoes has been a growing public health burden. Approximately 1.3 billion inhabitants in 94 countries are estimated to be at risk of chikungunya virus infection. Prior studies suggest that temperature and heterogeneous biting exposure are some of the key determinant factors in transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is imperative to evaluate the effects of heterogeneous biting exposure and temperature variations on transmission dynamics of CHIKV. In this paper, a mathematical model that incorporates heterogeneous biting exposure and temperature effects has been developed and analyzed. The basic reproduction number, an important metric for infectious disease models has been determined. Data from literature has been used to calibrate the model and observed CHIKV data for Kadmat primary health centre, India (2 July to 7 September 2007) has been used to validate the model. Results from the study suggest that disease prevention strategies which are effective at stopping transmission of CHIKV more than 80% of the time, will be highly effective minimizing disease burden during outbreaks. The proposed model can be used to inform policy makers on effective ways of managing CHIKV during outbreaks

A fractional-order Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense model with vector saturation and temperature dependent parameters

This research article published by Springer Nature, 2020Temperature is one of the integral environmental drivers that strongly affect the distribution and density of tsetse fly population. Precisely, ectotherm performance measures, such as development rate, survival probability and reproductive rate, increase from low values (even zero) at critical minimum temperature, peak at an optimum temperature and then decline to low levels (even zero) at a critical maximum temperature. In this study, a fractional-order Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense model incorporating vector saturation and temperature dependent parameters is considered. The proposed model incorporates the interplay between vectors and two hosts, humans and animals. We computed the basic reproduction number and established results on the threshold dynamics. Meanwhile, we explored the effects of vector control and screening of infected host on long-term disease dynamics. We determine threshold levels essential to reducing the basic reproduction number to level below unity at various temperature levels. Our findings indicate that vector control and host screening could significantly control spread of the disease at different temperature levels

Quantifying the effects of temperature and predation on the growth of Aedes mosquito population

This research article was published by Springer Nature, 2023Despite having been tested in multiple settings, the quantitative impact of predatory aquatic insects to reduce mosquito population remains unclear. To address this question, an ecological model of Aedes mosquito population incorporating temperature-dependent entomological parameters and predation is developed. The vector reproduction number is derived and entomological parameters that strongly influence it have been identified. Implications of predation on mosquito growth are examined. Results show that predators with high daily attack rate can significantly reduce vector reproduction to extremely low values close to zero. The study provides a framework for more detailed, predator specific studies that are essential to develop an improved understanding on the relationship between predatory aquatic insects and Aedes mosquitoes

Dynamic modelling and optimal control analysis of a fractional order chikungunya disease model with temperature effects

This research article published by Elsevier, 2023Approximately 1.3 billion inhabitants in 94 countries are estimated to be at risk of chikungunya virus infection. A mechanistic compartmental model based on fractional calculus, the Caputo derivative has been proposed to evaluate the effects of temperature and multiple disease control measures (larvicides use, insecticides and physical barriers) during an outbreak. The proposed model was calibrated based on data from literature and validated with daily chikungunya fever cases reported at Kadmat primary health centre, India. The transmission potential of the disease was examined. Sensitive analyses were conducted through computing partial rank correlation coefficients. Memory effects which are often neglected when mechanistic models are used to model the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, were found to have a significant effect on the dynamics of chikungunya