Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in four states of Nigeria in October 2020: A population-based household survey

The observed epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in sub-Saharan Africa has varied greatly from that in Europe and the United States, with much lower reported incidence. Population-based studies are needed to estimate true cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 to inform public health interventions. This study estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in four selected states in Nigeria in October 2020. We implemented a two-stage cluster sample household survey in four Nigerian states (Enugu, Gombe, Lagos, and Nasarawa) to estimate age-stratified prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. All individuals in sampled households were eligible for interview, blood draw, and nasal/oropharyngeal swab collection. We additionally tested participants for current/recent malaria infection. Seroprevalence estimates were calculated accounting for the complex survey design. Across all four states, 10,629 (96·5%) of 11,015 interviewed individuals provided blood samples. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 25·2% (95% CI 21·8–28·6) in Enugu State, 9·3% (95% CI 7·0–11·5) in Gombe State, 23·3% (95% CI 20·5–26·4) in Lagos State, and 18·0% (95% CI 14·4–21·6) in Nasarawa State. Prevalence of current/recent malaria infection ranged from 2·8% in Lagos to 45·8% in Gombe and was not significantly related to SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. The prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 infection in the four states during the survey period was 0·2% (95% CI 0·1–0·4). Approximately eight months after the first reported COVID-19 case in Nigeria, seroprevalence indicated infection levels 194 times higher than the 24,198 officially reported COVID-19 cases across the four states; however, most of the population remained susceptible to COVID-19 in October 2020

SupplmentalFigure1 - Factors Associated with Outcomes of Pre-ART HIV Care

<p>SupplmentalFigure1 for Factors Associated with Outcomes of Pre-ART HIV Care by Kristen A. Stafford, Lucy W. Nganga, Tuhuma Tulli, and Karen G. Fleischman Foreit in Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS Care (JIAPAC)</p

Factors Associated with Outcomes of Pre-ART HIV Care

The World Health Organization recommended removing all CD4 requirements for initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. We examined the pre-ART period to identify and assess factors associated with outcomes of pre-ART care. Four modes of transition out of pre-ART care were considered. Beta estimates from the competing risks Cox models were used to investigate whether the effects of covariates differed by mode of transition. Median CD4 counts at entry showed no meaningful change over time. Advanced disease progression and presence of opportunistic infections were significant predictors of pre-ART mortality. Men were more likely to die before initiating ART, transfer to another facility, or be lost to follow-up than were women. Removing CD4 thresholds is not likely to substantially reduce program mortality prior to ART initiation unless and until patients enroll earlier in disease progression. Care programs should focus on diagnosis and treatment of opportunistic infections to reduce pre-ART mortality

Key Population Size Estimation to Guide HIV Epidemic Responses in Nigeria: Bayesian Analysis of 3-Source Capture-Recapture Data

BackgroundNigeria has the fourth largest burden of HIV globally. Key populations, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs, are more vulnerable to HIV than the general population due to stigmatized and criminalized behaviors. Reliable key population size estimates are needed to guide HIV epidemic response efforts. ObjectiveThe objective of our study was to use empirical methods for sampling and analysis to improve the quality of population size estimates of female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs in 7 states (Akwa Ibom, Benue, Cross River, Lagos, Nasarawa, Rivers, and the Federal Capital Territory) of Nigeria for program planning and to demonstrate improved statistical estimation methods. MethodsFrom October to December 2018, we used 3-source capture-recapture to produce population size estimates in 7 states in Nigeria. Hotspots were mapped before 3-source capture-recapture started. We sampled female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs during 3 independent captures about one week apart. During hotspot encounters, key population members were offered inexpensive, memorable objects unique to each capture round. In subsequent rounds, key population members were offered an object and asked to identify objects received during previous rounds (if any). Correct responses were tallied and recorded on tablets. Data were aggregated by key population and state for analysis. Median population size estimates were derived using Bayesian nonparametric latent-class models with 80% highest density intervals. ResultsOverall, we sampled approximately 310,000 persons at 9015 hotspots during 3 independent captures. Population size estimates for female sex workers ranged from 14,500 to 64,300; population size estimates for men who have sex with men ranged from 3200 to 41,400; and population size estimates for people who inject drugs ranged from 3400 to 30,400. ConclusionsThis was the first implementation of these 3-source capture-recapture methods in Nigeria. Our population size estimates were larger than previously documented for each key population in all states. The Bayesian models account for factors, such as social visibility, that influence heterogeneous capture probabilities, resulting in more reliable population size estimates. The larger population size estimates suggest a need for programmatic scale-up to reach these populations, which are at highest risk for HIV

Factors associated with any maternal autonomy, BDHS 1999–00 to 2017–18.

Factors associated with any maternal autonomy, BDHS 1999–00 to 2017–18.</p

Study variables.

Maternal autonomy is associated with improved healthcare utilization/outcomes for mothers and babies in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the trends in the prevalence and factors associated with maternal autonomy in Bangladesh. This cross-sectional study analyzed the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey for 1999–00, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017–18. Maternal autonomy was defined as at least one decision-making ability regarding healthcare, large household purchases, and freedom of mobility. We included 15-49-year-old mothers with at least one live-birth in the past three years. We compared the samples based on the presence of autonomy and reported the trends in prevalence (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) across the survey years. Lastly, we performed multilevel logistic regression to report prevalence odds ratios (PORs) for the associated factors. Variables investigated as potential factors included maternal age, number of children, maternal education, paternal education, current work, religion, mass media exposure, wealth quintile, place and division of residence, and survey years. The prevalence of ’any’ maternal autonomy was 72.0% (95% CI: 70.5–73.5) in 1999–00 and increased to 83.8% (95% CI: 82.7–84.9) in 2017–18. In adjusted analysis, mothers with older age, higher education, work outside the home, and mass media exposure had higher odds of autonomy than their counterparts (POR > 1, p </div

Prevalence (95% confidence interval) and trends of any maternal autonomy by sociodemographic characteristics.

Prevalence (95% confidence interval) and trends of any maternal autonomy by sociodemographic characteristics.</p

Prevalence (95% confidence interval) and trends of high maternal autonomy by sociodemographic characteristics.

Prevalence (95% confidence interval) and trends of high maternal autonomy by sociodemographic characteristics.</p

Factors associated with maternal autonomy, BDHS 1999–00 to 2017–18.

Factors associated with maternal autonomy, BDHS 1999–00 to 2017–18.</p