A new regional climate model for POLAR-CORDEX : evaluation of a 30-year hindcast with COSMO-CLM2 over Antarctica

Continent-wide climate information over the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is important to obtain accurate information of present climate and reduce uncertainties of the ice sheet mass balance response and resulting global sea level rise to future climate change. In this study, the COSMO-CLM2 Regional Climate Model is applied over the AIS and adapted for the specific meteorological and climatological conditions of the region. A 30-year hindcast was performed and evaluated against observational records consisting of long-term ground-based meteorological observations, automatic weather stations, radiosoundings, satellite records, stake measurements and ice cores. Reasonable agreement regarding the surface and upper-air climate is achieved by the COSMO-CLM2 model, comparable to the performance of other state-of-the-art climate models over the AIS. Meteorological variability of the surface climate is adequately simulated, and biases in the radiation and surface mass balance are small. The presented model therefore contributes as a new member to the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment project over the AIS (POLAR-CORDEX) and the CORDEX-CORE initiative

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

Climate change represents a threat to the performance and persistence of urban forests and the multiple benefits they provide to city dwellers. Here, we use a novel approach to identify species and areas at high risk of climate change using the city of Melbourne, Australia, as a case study. We derive a safety margin, calculated based on climatic tolerance to two extreme climate variables (maximum temperature of the warmest month, MTWM; precipitation of the driest quarter, PDQ), for 474 tree species recorded in Melbourne for baseline (average for 2011–2020) and future (2041–2070) climatic conditions. For MTWM, 218 species (46%) are exceeding baseline climatic safety margins; this number is predicted to increase to 322 species (68%) by 2055 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. For PDQ, 255 and 257 species (54%) are identified as at risk for baseline and future climates, respectively. Using georeferenced locations of trees and high-resolution climate data, we map spatial patterns in climate risk, showing high risk areas across the city. We demonstrate how using urban tree inventories and climate risk metrics can aid in the identification of vulnerable species and locations at high climate risk to prioritise areas for monitoring and assist urban planning

Thirty years of land cover and fraction cover changes over the Sudano-Sahel using landsat time series

Historical land cover maps are of high importance for scientists and policy makers studying the dynamic character of land cover change in the Sudano-Sahel, including anthropogenic and climatological drivers. Despite its relevance, an accurate high resolution record of historical land cover maps is currently lacking over the Sudano-Sahel. In this study, 30 m resolution historically consistent land cover and cover fraction maps are provided over the Sudano-Sahel for the period 1986–2015. These land cover/cover fraction maps are achieved based on the Landsat archive preprocessed on Google Earth Engine and a random forest classification/regression model, while historical consistency is achieved using the hidden Markov model. Using these historical maps, a multitude of variability in the dynamic Sudano-Sahel region over the past 30 years is revealed. On the one hand, Sahel-wide cropland expansion and the re-greening of the Sahel is observed in the discrete land cover classification. On the other hand, subtle changes such as forest degradation are detected based on the cover fraction maps. Additionally, exploiting the 30 m spatial resolution, fine-scale changes, such as smallholder or subsistence farming, can be detected. The historical land cover/cover fraction maps presented in this study are made available via an open-access platform

Evaluation of the CloudSat surface snowfall product over Antarctica using ground-based precipitation radars

In situ observations of snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet are scarce. Currently, continent-wide assessments of snowfall are limited to information from the Cloud Profiling Radar on board the CloudSat satellite, which has not been evaluated up to now. In this study, snowfall derived from CloudSat is evaluated using three ground-based vertically profiling 24&thinsp;GHz precipitation radars (Micro Rain Radars: MRRs). Firstly, using the MRR long-term measurement records, an assessment of the uncertainty caused by the low temporal sampling rate of CloudSat (one revisit per 2.1 to 4.5 days) is performed. The 10–90th-percentile temporal sampling uncertainty in the snowfall climatology varies between 30&thinsp;% and 40&thinsp;% depending on the latitudinal location and revisit time of CloudSat. Secondly, an evaluation of the snowfall climatology indicates that the CloudSat product, derived at a resolution of 1∘ latitude by 2∘ longitude, is able to accurately represent the snowfall climatology at the three MRR sites (biases&thinsp;&lt;&thinsp;15&thinsp;%), outperforming ERA-Interim. For coarser and finer resolutions, the performance drops as a result of higher omission errors by CloudSat. Moreover, the CloudSat product does not perform well in simulating individual snowfall events. Since the difference between the MRRs and the CloudSat climatology are limited and the temporal uncertainty is lower than current Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) snowfall variability, our results imply that the CloudSat product is valuable for climate model evaluation purposes.</p

PARASO, a circum-Antarctic fully coupled ice-sheet–ocean–sea-ice–atmosphere–land model involving f.ETISh1.7, NEMO3.6, LIM3.6, COSMO5.0 and CLM4.5

We introduce PARASO, a novel five-component fully coupled regional climate model over an Antarctic circumpolar domain covering the full Southern Ocean. The state-of-the-art models used are the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh) v1.7 (ice sheet), the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) v3.6 (ocean), the Louvain-la-Neuve sea-ice model (LIM) v3.6 (sea ice), the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model v5.0 (atmosphere) and its CLimate Mode (CLM) v4.5 (land), which are here run at a horizontal resolution close to . One key feature of this tool resides in a novel two-way coupling interface for representing ocean–ice-sheet interactions, through explicitly resolved ice-shelf cavities. The impact of atmospheric processes on the Antarctic ice sheet is also conveyed through computed COSMO-CLM–f.ETISh surface mass exchange. In this technical paper, we briefly introduce each model's configuration and document the developments that were carried out in order to establish PARASO. The new offline-based NEMO–f.ETISh coupling interface is thoroughly described. Our developments also include a new surface tiling approach to combine open-ocean and sea-ice-covered cells within COSMO, which was required to make this model relevant in the context of coupled simulations in polar regions. We present results from a 2000–2001 coupled 2-year experiment. PARASO is numerically stable and fully operational. The 2-year simulation conducted without fine tuning of the model reproduced the main expected features, although remaining systematic biases provide perspectives for further adjustment and development

Estimating radar reflectivity - Snowfall rate relationships and their uncertainties over Antarctica by combining disdrometer and radar observations

Snowfall rate (SR) estimates over Antarctica are sparse and characterised by large uncertainties. Yet, observations by precipitation radar offer the potential to get better insight in Antarctic SR. Relations between radar reflectivity (Ze) and snowfall rate (Ze-SR relations) are however not available over Antarctica. Here, we analyse observations from the first Micro Rain Radar (MRR) in Antarctica together with an optical disdrometer (Precipitation Imaging Package; PIP), deployed at the Princess Elisabeth station. The relation Ze = A*SRB was derived using PIP observations and its uncertainty was quantified using a bootstrapping approach, randomly sampling within the range of uncertainty. This uncertainty was used to assess the uncertainty in snowfall rates derived by the MRR. We find a value of A = 18 [11-43] and B = 1.10 [0.97-1.17]. The uncertainty on snowfall rates of the MRR based on the Ze-SR relation are limited to 40%, due to the propagation of uncertainty in both Ze as well as SR, resulting in some compensation. The prefactor (A) of the Ze-SR relation is sensitive to the median diameter of the snow particles. Larger particles, typically found closer to the coast, lead to an increase of the value of the prefactor (A = 44). Smaller particles, typical of more inland locations, obtain lower values for the prefactor (A = 7). The exponent (B) of the Ze-SR relation is insensitive to the median diameter of the snow particles. In contrast with previous studies for various locations, shape uncertainty is not the main source of uncertainty of the Ze-SR relation. Parameter uncertainty is found to be the most dominant term, mainly driven by the uncertainty in mass-size relation of different snow particles. Uncertainties on the snow particle size distribution are negligible in this study as they are directly measured. Future research aiming at reducing the uncertainty of Ze-SR relations should therefore focus on obtaining reliable estimates of the mass-size relations of snow particles

What is the surface mass balance of Antarctica? An intercomparison of regional climate model estimates

International audienceAbstract. We compare the performance of five different regional climate models (RCMs) (COSMO-CLM2, HIRHAM5, MAR3.10, MetUM, and RACMO2.3p2), forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis, in simulating the near-surface climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica. All models simulate Antarctic climate well when compared with daily observed temperature and pressure, with nudged models matching daily observations slightly better than free-running models. The ensemble mean annual SMB over the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) including ice shelves is 2329±94 Gt yr−1 over the common 1987–2015 period covered by all models. There is large interannual variability, consistent between models due to variability in the driving ERA-Interim reanalysis. Mean annual SMB is sensitive to the chosen period; over our 30-year climatological mean period (1980 to 2010), the ensemble mean is 2483 Gt yr−1. However, individual model estimates vary from 1961±70 to 2519±118 Gt yr−1. The largest spatial differences between model SMB estimates are in West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and around the Transantarctic Mountains. We find no significant trend in Antarctic SMB over either period. Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is currently equivalent to around 0.5 mm yr−1 of global mean sea level rise (Shepherd et al., 2020), but our results indicate some uncertainty in the SMB contribution based on RCMs. We compare modelled SMB with a large dataset of observations, which, though biased by undersampling, indicates that many of the biases in SMB are common between models. A drifting-snow scheme improves modelled SMB on ice sheet surface slopes with an elevation between 1000 and 2000 m, where strong katabatic winds form. Different ice masks have a substantial impact on the integrated total SMB and along with model resolution are factored into our analysis. Targeting undersampled regions with high precipitation for observational campaigns will be key to improving future estimates of SMB in Antarctica

The vertical structure of precipitation at two stations in East Antarctica derived from micro rain radars

International audienc

30 Years of Land Cover and Fraction Cover Changes over the Sudano-Sahel using Landsat Timeseries

30m resolution historically consistent land cover and cover fraction maps over the Sudano-Sahel for the period 1986-2015. These land cover / cover fraction maps are achieved based on the Landsat archive preprocessed on Google Earth Engine and a random forest classification / regression model, while historical consistency is achieved using the Hidden Markov Model. Validated land cover / cover fraction maps covering the full Sudano-Sahel are provided for 2015 (2015_Sahel.zip), while historical maps are available for four focus areas. The extent of the areas are displayed in 11_study_area.jpe

Drivers of future changes in East African precipitation

Precipitation amounts over East Africa have been declining over the last decades. These changes and future climate change over the region are highly debated. This study analyzes drivers of future precipitation changes over East Africa by applying a classification of circulation patterns on 15 historical and future members of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment. Typical circulation types (CTs) are obtained. Under a high emission scenario, changes in the frequency of occurrence of these CTs attribute for 23% of the total change in precipitation over East Africa by the end of the century. The remaining part (77%) is not related to East African synoptics, e.g. changes in moisture content, local/mesoscale feedbacks, and changes in moisture influx. These other effects comprise increases in precipitation close to the equator and the Somali region, while decreases are found over northwestern Ethiopia, the Sudan region and the lake areas.ISSN:1748-9326ISSN:1748-931