Black-Hole X-Ray Transients: The Effect of Irradiation on Time-Dependent Accretion Disk Structure

Some effects of irradiation on time-dependent accretion-disk models for black hole X-ray novae are presented. Two types of irradiation are considered: direct irradiation from the inner hot disk and indirect irradiation as might be reflected by a corona or chromosphere above the disk. The shadowing effect of the time-dependent evolution of the disk height and consequent blocking of the outer disk by the inner and middle portions of the disk from the direct irradiation is included. The direct irradiation of the disk by inner layers where the soft X-ray flux is generated is found to have only a small effect on the outer disk because of shadowing. Mild indirect irradiation that flattens, but otherwise does not affect the light curve substantially, still has interesting non-linear effects on the structure of the disk as heating and cooling waves propagate. The irradiated disks do not always make simple transitions between the hot and cold states, but can linger at intermediate temperatures or even return temporarily to the hot state, depending on the irradiation and the activity in adjacent portions of the disk.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figure

4D Lorentz Electron Microscopy Imaging: Magnetic Domain Wall Nucleation, Reversal, and Wave Velocity

Magnetization reversal is an important topic of research in the fields of both basic and applied ferromagnetism. For the study of magnetization reversal dynamics and magnetic domain wall (DW) motion in ferromagnetic thin films, imaging techniques are indispensable. Here, we report 4D imaging of DWs by the out-of-focus Fresnel method in Lorentz ultrafast electron microscopy (UEM), with in situ spatial and temporal resolutions. The temporal change in magnetization, as revealed by changes in image contrast, is clocked using an impulsive optical field to produce structural deformation of the specimen, thus modulating magnetic field components in the specimen plane. Directly visualized are DW nucleation and subsequent annihilation and oscillatory reappearance (periods of 32 and 45 ns) in nickel films on two different substrates. For the case of Ni films on a Ti/Si_(3)N_4 substrate, under conditions of minimum residual external magnetic field, the oscillation is associated with a unique traveling wave train of periodic magnetization reversal. The velocity of DW propagation in this wave train is measured to be 172 m/s with a wavelength of 7.8 μm. The success of this study demonstrates the promise of Lorentz UEM for real-space imaging of spin switching, ferromagnetic resonance, and laser-induced demagnetization in ferromagnetic nanostructures

BRST extension of the Faddeev model

The Faddeev model is a second class constrained system. Here we construct its nilpotent BRST operator and derive the ensuing manifestly BRST invariant Lagrangian. Our construction employs the structure of Stuckelberg fields in a nontrivial fashion.Comment: 4 pages, new references adde

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit

The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on whether or not to list rests upon forecasts of what will happen to the bears over the 21st Century. Scientific research on forecasting, conducted since the 1930s, has led to an extensive set of principles—evidence-based procedures—that describe which methods are appropriate under given conditions. The principles of forecasting have been published and are easily available. We assessed polar bear population forecasts in light of these scientific principles. Much research has been published on forecasting polar bear populations. Using an Internet search, we located roughly 1,000 such papers. None of them made reference to the scientific literature on forecasting. We examined references in the nine unpublished government reports that were prepared “…to Support U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Polar Bear Listing Decision.” The papers did not include references to works on scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine papers written to support the listing, we judged two to be the most relevant to the decision: Amstrup, Marcot and Douglas et al. (2007), which we refer to as AMD, and Hunter et al. (2007), which we refer to as H6 to represent the six authors. AMD’s forecasts were the product of a complex causal chain. For the first link in the chain, AMD assumed that General Circulation Models (GCMs) are valid. However, the GCM models are not valid as a forecasting method and are not reliable for forecasting at a regional level as being considered by AMD and H6, thus breaking the chain. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming that the extent of summer sea ice will decrease substantially in the coming decades. AMD could not be rated against 26 relevant principles because the paper did not contain enough information. In all, AMD violated 73 of the 90 forecasting principles we were able to rate. They used two un-validated methods and relied on only one polar bear expert to specify variables, relationships, and inputs into their models. The expert then adjusted the models until the outputs conformed to his expectations. In effect, the forecasts were the opinions of a single expert unaided by forecasting principles. Based on research to date, approaches based on unaided expert opinion are inappropriate to forecasting in situations with high complexity and much uncertainty. Our audit of the second most relevant paper, H6, found that it was also based on faulty forecasting methodology. For example, it extrapolated nearly 100 years into the future on the basis of only five years of data – and data for these years were of doubtful validity. In summary, experts’ predictions, unaided by evidence-based forecasting procedures, should play no role in this decision. Without scientific forecasts of a substantial decline of the polar bear population and of net benefits from feasible policies arising from listing polar bears, a decision to list polar bears as threatened or endangered would be irresponsible.adaptation, bias, climate change, decision making, endangered species, expert opinion, evaluation, evidence-based principles, expert judgment, extinction, forecasting methods, global warming, habitat loss, mathematical models, scientific method, sea ice

Nonchaotic Nonlinear Motion Visualized in Complex Nanostructures by Stereographic 4D Electron Microscopy

Direct electron imaging with sufficient time resolution is a powerful tool for visualizing the three-dimensional (3D) mechanical motion and resolving the four-dimensional (4D) trajectories of many different components of a nanomachine, e.g., a NEMS device. Here, we report a nanoscale nonchaotic motion of a nano- and microstructured NiTi shape memory alloy in 4D electron microscopy. A huge amplitude oscillatory mechanical motion following laser heating is observed repetitively, likened to a 3D motion of a conductor’s baton. By time-resolved 4D stereographic reconstruction of the motion, prominent vibrational frequencies (3.0, 3.8, 6.8, and 14.5 MHz) are fully characterized, showing evidence of nonlinear behavior. Moreover, it is found that a stress (fluence)−strain (displacement) profile shows nonlinear elasticity. The observed resonances of the nanostructure are reminiscent of classical molecular quasi-periodic behavior, but here both the amplitude and frequency of the motion are visualized using ultrafast electron microscopy