Horizontal and Vertical Multiple Implementations in a Model of Industrial Districts

In this paper we discuss strategies concerning the implementation of an agent-based simulation of complex phenomena. The model we consider accounts for population decomposition and interaction in industrial districts. The approach we follow is twofold: on one hand, we implement progressively more complex models using different approaches (vertical multiple implementations); on the other hand, we replicate the agent-based simulation with different implementations using jESOF, JAS and plain C++ (horizontal multiple implementations). By using both different implementation approaches and a multiple implementation strategy, we highlight the benefits that arise when the same model is implemented on radically different simulation environments, comparing the advantages of multiple modeling implementations. Our findings provide some important suggestions in terms of model validation, showing how models of complex systems tend to be extremely sensitive to implementation details. Finally we point out how statistical techniques may be necessary when comparing different platform implementations of a single model.Replication of Models; Model Validation; Agent-Based Simulation

A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation

Traditional (i.e. analytical) modelling practices in the social sciences rely on a very well established, although implicit, methodological protocol, both with respect to the way models are presented and to the kinds of analysis that are performed. Unfortunately, computer-simulated models often lack such a reference to an accepted methodological standard. This is one of the main reasons for the scepticism among mainstream social scientists that results in low acceptance of papers with agent-based methodology in the top journals. We identify some methodological pitfalls that, according to us, are common in papers employing agent-based simulations, and propose appropriate solutions. We discuss each issue with reference to a general characterization of dynamic micro models, which encompasses both analytical and simulation models. In the way, we also clarify some confusing terminology. We then propose a three-stage process that could lead to the establishment of methodological standards in social and economic simulations.Agent-based, simulations, methodology, calibration, validation.

A Common Protocol for Agent-Based Social Simulation

Traditional (i.e. analytical) modelling practices in the social sciences rely on a very well established, although implicit, methodological protocol, both with respect to the way models are presented and to the kinds of analysis that are performed. Unfortunately, computer-simulated models often lack such a reference to an accepted methodological standard. This is one of the main reasons for the scepticism among mainstream social scientists that results in low acceptance of papers with agent-based methodology in the top journals. We identify some methodological pitfalls that, according to us, are common in papers employing agent-based simulations, and propose appropriate solutions. We discuss each issue with reference to a general characterization of dynamic micro models, which encompasses both analytical and simulation models. In the way, we also clarify some confusing terminology. We then propose a three-stage process that could lead to the establishment of methodological standards in social and economic simulations.Agent-Based, Simulations, Methodology, Calibration, Validation, Sensitivity Analysis

A discrete event simulation model to support bed management

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.In recent years, due to the overcrowding of Emergency Department (ED) and the growing concern in reducing the number of inpatient ward beds, it has become crucial to improve the capacity planning and control activities, which manage the patient flows from EDs to hospital wards. Bed Management has a key role in this context. This study starts by a collaboration with the Local Health Government (LHG) of the Liguria region aimed at studying the impact of supporting bed management with some operational strategies without increasing the bed capacity. A large amount of data was collected over a one-year period at public hospital in Genova and a preliminary observational analysis was conducted to get the main information about the flow of emergency and elective patients from ED to inpatient wards. A Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model has been then developed in order to represent the real system. A scenarios analysis is proposed to assess the best strategy to improve the system performance without increasing bed capacity, by simply synchronizing bed supply and demand. The model can be used as a decision support tool to optimise the use of the available resources as well as to improve the quality of the patient pathway inside the hospital.The authors acknowledge support from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR), under the grand FIRB n. RBFR081KSB. Data have been made available thanks to a collaboration between ARS Liguria (Dr. Francesco Quaglia and Domenico Gallo) and the Department of Economics and Business, University of Genova

Listeria monocytogenes serotypes in human infections (Italy, 2000-2010)

BACKGROUND: In developed countries invasive listeriosis is an infection of great concern to public health to due its clinical severity and high fatality rate, despite its low incidence. In Europe, statistically significant increasing trends in listeriosis notification rates from 2005 to 2009 were noted in Austria, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Spain and Sweden. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The standardized techniques based on phenotype to typing Listeria monocytogenes is the serotyping. In Europe, as elsewhere in the world, about 95% of L. monocytogenes strains isolated from clinical and food samples belongs to serovars 1/2a, 1/2b, 1/2c and 4b. RESULTS: The target of this work is to draw attention to this important and atypical foodborne disease, reporting epidemiological data and serotypes distribution of 251 human L. monocytogenes isolates reported during 2000-2010 to Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety Department of Istituto Superiore di Sanità, focusing on epidemiological trend of invasive listeriosis in Lombardia, a North Italian Region. The serotypes most frequently identified are 1/2a, 4b, 1/2b (in total 92%), but the detection of uncommon serotypes is not missing (1/2c, 3a, 3b, 4d). CONCLUSIONS: In Italy the surveillance laboratory network, as well as the foodborne disease network (ENTER-NET), has revealed in the last 11 years an increase trend of listeriosis cases reported likewise with results of Notificable National Infectious Disease surveillance System. This is probably due to a real increase of listeriosis, even if there is a greater sensitivity of the network in some regions

Genomic and physiological resilience in extreme environments are associated with a secure attachment style

Understanding individual capability to adjust to protracted confinement and isolation may inform adaptive plasticity and disease vulnerability/resilience, and may have long-term implications for operations requiring prolonged presence in distant and restricted environments. Individual coping depends on many different factors encompassing psychological dispositional traits, endocrine reactivity and their underlying molecular mechanisms (e.g. gene expression). A positive view of self and others (secure attachment style) has been proposed to promote individual resilience under extreme environmental conditions. Here, we tested this hypothesis and investigated the underlying molecular mechanisms in 13 healthy volunteers confined and isolated for 12 months in a research station located 1670 km away from the south geographic pole on the Antarctic Plateau at 3233 m above sea level. Study participants, stratified for attachment style, were characterised longitudinally (before, during and after confinement) for their psychological appraisal of the stressful nature of the expedition, diurnal fluctuations in endocrine stress reactivity, and gene expression profiling (transcriptomics). Predictably, a secure attachment style was associated with reduced psychological distress and endocrine vulnerability to stress. In addition, while prolonged confinement and isolation remarkably altered overall patterns of gene expression, such alteration was largely reduced in individuals characterised by a secure attachment style. Furthermore, increased resilience was associated with a reduced expression of genes involved in energy metabolism (mitochondrial function and oxidative phosphorylation). Ultimately, our data indicate that a secure attachment style may favour individual resilience in extreme environments and that such resilience can be mapped onto identifiable molecular substrates

Abstract JAS: Java Agent-based Simulation library. An open framework for algorithm-intensive simulations.

This paper shows how agent-based modelling technique is a suitable approach for social scientists to model complex adaptive systems, using computer as experimental environment. Unfortunately advanced tools are lacking as well as an unified language supporting its development. We present JAS, a new agent-based simulation tool, developed with the aim to improve AB models designing. We give a brief methodological introduction to its use and a short description of its architecture