Decomposition of state-space Model with inputs: The theory and an application to estimate the ROI of advertising

This paper shows how to compute the in-sample effect of exogenous inputs on the endogenous variables in any linear model written in state-space form. Estimating this component may be, either interesting by itself, or a previous step before decomposing a time series into trend, cycle, seasonal and error components. The practical application and usefulness of this method is illustrated by estimating the effect of advertising on monthly sales of the Lydia Pinkham vegetable compound.State-space, Signal extraction, Time series decomposition, Seasonal adjustment, Advertising, Lydia Pinkham

Un método de inicialización del filtrado para modelos en espacio de los estados con inputs estocásticos

En este trabajo se derivan las expresiones exactas de la media y varianza condicional del estado inicial de un modelo en espacio de los estados con inputs estocásticos, generalizando los resultados teóricos obtenidos por De Jong y Chu-Chun-Lin (1994). Se muestra que las condiciones iniciales exactas dependen del carácter estacionario o no estacionario del modelo y que las estimaciones finales de los parámetros son sensibles a la presencia de inputs estocásticos, siendo ésta una situación frecuente en Econometría

A proposal to obtain a long quarterly chilean gdp series

An important limitation in order to specify and estimate a macroeconomic model that describes the Chilean economy resides in using variables with sufficient number of observations that allow for a reliable econometric estimation. Among these variables, the GDP constitutes a fundamental magnitude. Nevertheless, for this variable there is not quarterly information before 1980. This paper computes quarterly GDP series for the period 1966-1979 using the approach by Casals et al (2000). As result, the new series incorporates the cyclical dynamic in the quarterly series later to 1979 respecting, in addition, all the annual existing information before the above mentioned period

A PROPOSAL TO OBTAIN A LONG QUARTERLY CHILEAN GDP SERIES

An important limitation in order to specify and estimate a macroeconomic model that describes the Chilean economy resides in using variables with sufficient number of observations that allow for a reliable econometric estimation. Among these variables, the GDP constitutes a fundamental magnitude. Nevertheless, for this variable there is not quarterly information before 1980. This paper computes quarterly GDP series for the period 1966-1979 using the approach by Casals et al (2000). As result, the new series incorporates the cyclical dynamic in the quarterly series later to 1979 respecting, in addition, all the annual existing information before the above mentioned period.

A Proposal to Obtain a Long Quarterly Chilean GDP Series

An important limitation in order to specify and estimate a macroeconomic model that describes the Chilean economy resides in using variables with sufficient number of observations that allow for a reliable econometric estimation. Among these variables, thSmoothing algorithm, arima model, transfer function model, chilean gdp

Aplicaciones econométricas del filtro de Kalman y algunas variaciones numéricas : el filtro de Chandrasekhar

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II (Economía Cuantitativa), leída el 22-06-1992Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía CuantitativaFac. de Ciencias Económicas y EmpresarialesTRUEpu

Single and multiple error state-space models for signal extraction

We compare the results obtained by applying the same signal extraction procedures to two observationally equivalent state-space forms. The first model has different errors affecting the states and the observations, while the second has a single perturbation term which coincides with the one-step-ahead forecast error. The signals extracted from both forms are very similar but their variances are drastically different, because the states for the single-source error representation collapse to exact values while those coming from the multiple-error model remain uncertain. The implications of this result are discussed both, with theoretical arguments and practical examples. We find that single error representations have advantages to compute the likelihood or to adjust for seasonality, while multiple error models are better suited to extract a trend indicator. Building on this analysis, it is natural to adopt a ‘best of both worlds’ approach, which applies each representation to the task in which it has comparative advantage

The impact of oil prices on products groups inflation: is the effect asymmetric?

In this paper we assess the oil price pass-through into both, the global inflation in Spain and the inflation derived from the non-deterministic prices of the standard European classification of product groups, during the period 2002-2018. To this end we fit a transfer function to inflation in each group, extended to allow for an asymmetry in the transmission of positive/negative oil cost shocks, that is, a “rockets and feathers effect”. Our results show that most often there is a significant asymmetry, which can be explained by the degree of competition in each market

Innovation and business survival: A long-term approach

This paper explores the influence of innovation on the probability of survival of two hundred top British firms founded throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. To this end, we have collected the firms’ significant innovations and classified them by Schumpeterian types, patented and non-patented and domestic and imported. The number of patents registered by the firms throughout their lifetime −a rough measure of their incremental innovation activity– has also been recorded. In addition, twelve control variables −five characteristics of the firms and seven of their business leaders– have been included. Both log-normal and gamma duration models have been used in the analysis. They have been estimated, firstly for the whole set of firms and, secondly, for the manufacturing and the service firms separately to control for industry differences. The results of the log-normal and gamma estimations are highly coincident, with some nuances. The significant innovations −particularly new processes, non-patented and domestic ones– have been found to positively influence the probability of business survival. The number of patent applications seems to increase the survival probability of the manufacturing firms, but not of the service ones. Among the control variables, the firm’s size, its international dimension, and the age of the business leader at entry seem to be the most influential ones on business survival, although there are some differences between manufacturing and services. The main results are robust to the division of the sample by entry period

Implementación de Pruebas Individuales para la Evaluación Continua en Métodos Cuantitativos (IPIPEC)

Depto. de Análisis Económico y Economía CuantitativaFac. de Ciencias Económicas y EmpresarialesFALSEsubmitte