Can reforming global institutions help developing countries share more in the benefits from globalization?

Globalization could significantly expand trade, international investment, and technological advances, but the gains from global integration have been unevenly distributed across and within nations. Greater global interdependence has also brought greater macroeconomic volatility, resulting in several serious financial crises in the second half of the 1990s. The global matrix of Bretton Woods and United Nations institutions that developed starting in the 1940s, formed under a different balance of power, in a world of fixed exchange rates and limited capital mobility. Since the 1960s regional financial institutions have emerged because of the greater autonomy of different regions and the greater financial needs of development. The author reviews different proposals for reform of the international financial institutions and changes in the roles of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. He highlights the implications for developing countries of (1) Policy conditionality. (2) The countercyclical role of multilaterals'lending. (3) Greater lending to middle-income than to low-income developing countries. (3) Access to liquidity at times of crisis. (4) Mechanisms for giving low-income countries a greater voice in IMF and World Bank decisionmaking. The author streses the overlapping responsibilities of the Bretton Woods and regional financial institutions and the need to reassess the allocation of responsibilities and to develop better coordination mechanisms between these institutions. Those designing institutional reform must consider the corporate capabilities of each type of institution. The corporate cultures of global and regional institutions differ. So does the kind of knowledge they generate and disseminate, and so do patterns of interactions with, and mechanisms for representation of, client countries.Finally, the author calls attention to the need to harmonize national and global growth-oriented policies in a way that reduces volatility and promotes social equity.Environmental Economics&Policies,Governance Indicators,Financial Intermediation,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform

Macroeconomic adjustment, stabilization, and growth in reforming socialist economies : analytical and policy issues

Current attempts at reform in Eastern European countries raise important issues of macroeconomic management in the transition from central planning to a market or mixed economy. This paper develops simple models, reviews empirical evidence and discusses policy issues associated with traditional socialist economies and those undergoing reform. Those issues involve inflation, growth, money overhang, disequilibrium in goods and labour markets and interactions between stabilization and growth.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Stabilization,Municipal Financial Management

Inflation and the costs of stabilization : country experiences, conceptual issues, and policy lessons

The macroeconomic effects and the actual costs of different anti-inflationary programs is a subject of great importance for the design of stabilization policies. This paper reviews several historical anti-inflationary programs and some of the recent past. The purpose of the paper is to help understand current difficulties with stabilization, especially in Latin America. The emphasis of each experience reviewed is on the cost of stabilization and the role played by fiscal reform, the availability of foreign resources, the stabilization of the exchange rate and the distributive conflict, relating to the success or failure of the particular anti-inflationary program studied. In addition special attention is given to the existing controversies on the causes and cures of inflation in the literature on stabilization.Economic Stabilization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Banks&Banking Reform

Development Cycles, Political Regimes and International Migration: Argentina in the Twentieth Century

economic growth, economic development, international migration

How private investment reacts to changing macroeconomic conditions : the case of Chile in the 1980s

This paper simulates a model of joint determination of private investment spending, aggregate investment profitability and the level of GDP for Chile. It addresses the following issues: (a) sharp cycles in economic activity - the boom of 1980-81, the steep recession of 1982-83, and the recovery afterward which increased the volatility of aggregate demand and discouraged investment; (b) sharp swings in the real exchange rate and real interest rates in the last decade which increased the variance of profitability causing an adverse effect on investment; (c) high real interest rates which restrained private investment; and (d) real appreciation and depreciation.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Macroeconomic Management,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Stabilization

Remittances by Emigrants: Issues and Evidence

remittances, capital flows, development finance

Globalization and national development at the end ot the 20th century - tensions and challenges

Globalization offers developing countries the opportunities to create wealth through export-led growth, to expand international trade in goods and services, and to gain access to new ideas, technologies, and institutional designs. But globalization also entails problems and tensions that must be appropriately managed. For one thing, global business cycles can contribute greatly to macroeconomic volatility at the national level. The scope and severity of crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997), Russia (1998), and Brazil (1999) suggests the severity of the financial vulnerability developing countries face nowadays. With financial markets so highly integrated, problems are transmitted rapidly from one country to another. The rapid transmission of financial shocks changes levels of confidence and affects exchange rates, interest rates, asset prices, and, ultimately, output and employment - with consequent social effects. Policymakers should also be concerned about how globalization exacerbates job instability and income disparities both within and across countries. Macroeconomic and financial crises, by increasing poverty and social tensions, can be political destabilizing. As the 20th century ends, the resources of Bretton Woods institutions are strained because of the large and complex rescue packages needed to deal with large-scale volatility. Development policy agendas in the era of globalization need to articulate traditional concerns with growth, stability, and social equity with new themes such as transparency and good governance at several levels: national, regional, and global.Environmental Economics&Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Governance Indicators,Banks&Banking Reform,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation

Three Decades of Neoliberal Economics in Chile: Achievements, Failures and Dilemmas

The Chilean development story of the last two to three decades is a mix of successes in the macro, growth, poverty and trade fronts but also of failure in reducing chronic inequality of income and wealth. In addition, the current growth patterns have serious impacts on the environment, natural resources and energy demand. Adverse features of the Chilean development model include urban insecurity and rising crime, pollution, pressure on natural resources, congestion and social stratification in access to education, health and pensions. A reduction in social inequality would require changes in several fronts: more public-sector resources devoted to education; curtailing current concentration of wealth and market shares in banking, retail trade, and private pensions systems, private health provision, and other sectors; more effective regulation of big business; rebalancing of labour unions. bargaining power capacities and effective support to the sector of small and medium size enterprises. Chilean democracy would benefit from a redefinition in development priorities towards less power for the dominant elites (economic and political) and broader social participation for the middle class and the working people to support dynamic and more equitableChile, development, inequality, growth, natural resources, social policy, middle class

The International Mobility of Talent and its Impact on Global Development

Human talent is a key economic resource and a source of creative power in science, technology, business, arts and culture and other activities. Talent has a large economic value and its mobility has increased with globalization, the spread of new information technologies and lower transportation costs. Well educated and/or talented people are often more internationally mobile than unskilled workers. Immigrants with high human capital face more favourable immigrantion policies in receiving countries, typically high per capita income economies short of information technology experts, scientists, medical doctors and other types of talent. The purpose of this paper is to review analytical and policy issues related to the international mobility of talented individuals, examining the main types of talent who move internationally, their specific traits and characteristics and the implications of this mobility for source and destination countries and for global development.international migration, international mobility, human resources, human talent

Inflation and growth in the transition from socialism : the case of Bulgaria

Bulgaria's shaky macroeconomic situation is a serious obstacle for a smooth transition from central planning to markets. It has to correct large current account deficits with the convertible currencyarea. It has to eliminate inflationary pressures and large price distortions, and get into a path of sustainable growth. The links between inflation, money velocity, the money overhang, and the fiscal deficit are crucial for assessing probable inflationary trends in Bulgaria. The author shows that with controlled prices and financial repression, low velocity keeps inflation at an artificially low level despite large fiscal deficits. But as prices are deregulated and the financial sector is reformed, velocity can be expected to increase. Bulgaria's moves toward a market economy are likely to affect growth through several channels. Reforms of the incentive structure will make part of the capital stock economically obsolete, hampering productive capacity in the short run. The response of private investment to the new incentives will be highly sensitive to macroeconomic stability and the perceived probability that the reform process will last and consolidate. Given these impediments, external support in the form of new financing and direct investment will play a major role in consolidating the reform and in the resumption of growth.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Economic Stabilization