Scoping the use of predictive models to address priority questions concerning terrestrial biodiversity

Rapid environmental change caused by anthropogenic activities has a major influence on the state of natural ecosystems, impacting the biodiversity and human societies that depend on them. Determining the likely future impacts of environmental changes, and how to manage them, can be greatly enhanced using modelling approaches able to predict future ecosystem states and biodiversity patterns. This report scopes the priorities and potential for informative predictive analyses of terrestrial biodiversity patterns. Specifically, the report describes 12 research priorities and broadly summarises the data requirements needed for addressing them using predictive modelling. The report concludes with some more detailed case studies of research questions and how they could be addressed

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Year 1 Report 15: Responsive Monitoring Part 1 - Selection of ERAMMP field survey squares

A reduction in the number of GMEP squares to be revisited in the ERAMMP field survey is required to meet budgetary constraints whilst ensuring the survey will deliver the most robust evidence base which is responsive to such issues as the actual uptake of different Glastir interventions by contract-holders/land-managers and the capture of those within the baseline GMEP survey. An approach was needed which would maximise outputs matched to policy priorities for assessing national trends, provide evidence for the outcomes of Glastir interventions and optimise where changes were most likely to be detected. The target is to reduce survey squares from 300 to 240 1km squares

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme - ERAMMP Report-43: Analysis of National Monitoring Data to Inform Future Land Management Schemes in Wales.

The purpose of this work was to provide more in-depth analysis of the field survey data collected under the GMEP project between 2013 – 2016 to inform both future analysis of Glastir outcomes and the design of the Sustainable Farm Scheme in Wales

Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring & Modelling Programme ERAMMP - Technical Annex 2: Sward management. Sustainable Farming Scheme Evidence Review

The Brief: Establish the intervention logic for supporting the diversification of swards in improved grassland. Establish the Greenhouse Gas (GHG), water quality, air quality and economic benefits. Establish the environmental outcomes including GHG emissions reduction, biodiversity, water quality and air quality, which will be secured through diversification of sward management. Identify the contribution that sward diversification will make to the economic resilience and sustainability of Welsh agriculture

Modelling Landscape-scale Species Response to Agri-Environment Schemes

Agri-environment schemes (AES) are the most significant environmental policy delivery mechanism in England, and include the conservation of biodiversity as a key objective. Provisional results from the ongoing Landscape-scale species monitoring of AES (LandSpAES) baseline field survey have shown some positive responses of mobile taxa to AES gradients at local (1km2) or landscape (3 × 3km) scales. However, it is not known whether these provisional results might be more broadly applicable outside the regions surveyed in the LandSpAES project, i.e. in other regions, or nationally. Here, we present the findings of an analytical project to explore the use of national Citizen Science (CitSci) scheme data, to investigate whether similar relationships with AES gradients would be found at a national scale in CitSci data to those shown with LandSpAES data, and whether integrated modelling was possible with combined CitSci and LandSpAES datasets. The design of LandSpAES has high power to detect AES effects, including the independent testing of the local and landscape AES gradients, but is restricted to six regions. The national CitSci are more representative of England as a whole, but have not been designed to detect AES effects. The aim of this project was to determine whether the provisional taxon responses to the AES gradients found in the LandSpAES project could be detected at a national scale using CitSci scheme data. To achieve this aim, three key questions were addressed through the analytical work: 1) Can addition of covariates account for environmental variation between survey squares in each dataset, to improve the comparability of AES gradient effects between LandSpAES and CitSci schemes? 2) Do the CitSci scheme datasets show similar relationships between taxa responses and the AES gradients, to those found with the LandSpAES data? 3) Can integrated approaches to combining datasets be used to jointly model CitSci and LandSpAES data, and does integrated modelling reduce uncertainty in quantifying the effects of AES gradients on taxa responses at a national scale across England