Not quite as advertised: Canada’s managed float in the 1950s and Bank of Canada intervention

Canada has perhaps the longest track record of adhering to a floating exchange rate regime, but it may well also have been the first country to adopt a managed float during the 1950s. In spite of criticisms levelled at the Canadian government’s decision to float the dollar, the remarkable feature of the behaviour of the exchange rate during the so-called float is the relative stability of the nominal exchange rate, and the small volatility in its movements. This article stresses the impact of foreign exchange intervention in limiting exchange rate appreciations and in moderating exchange rate volatility, using newly found, and heretofore unused, intervention data. Until now, all studies of Canada’s experience with the float have relied on official foreign exchange reserves data. A counterfactual experiment also suggests that nominal exchange rate levels, and variability, would have been different had there been no foreign exchange market intervention

Emerging Market Yield Spreads: Domestic, External Determinants, and Volatility Spillovers

This study examines the determinants of bond yield spreads for 22 emerging markets in the period 1998-2009. In addition to the usual EMBI index data from credit default swaps (CDS) are also used. Three sets of determinants are considered: domestic, external, and institutional factors. In addition, I consider the connection between volatility and bond yield spreads. Volatility, and central bank transparency, are two factors common to all countries examined whereas clear idiosyncrasies are found according to whether emerging markets are in Latin and South America, Europe, Asia or Africa. Most notably, the global financial financial crisis did not impact yield spreads in Asia which suggests that, in a sense, bond markets in that region were decoupled from those in other parts of the world.emerging markets, yield spreads, volatility, transparency

The FedÕs Reaction to the Stock Market During the Great Depression: Fact or Artefact?

A notable feature of the 1920s and 1930s is the volatility in several key macroeconomic aggregates, and this feature used to econometrically identify the reaction of the Fed to stock market developments. The volatility of economic activity may have contributed to deepening the divisions among policy-makers about how the Fed ought to respond to stock price developments. Relying on the technique of Rigobon (2003), volatility is used as an instrument to estimate the FedÕs response to the stock market. Other identification assumptions based on structural VARs produce compatible results. Fed behavior appeared to have changed following the stock market crash of 1929. Consistent with the Riefler-Burgess doctrine, interest rates and stock returns are negatively related. I conclude that, prior to the stock market crash of 1929, a form of benign neglect explains Fed behavior. Thereafter, the Fed reacts only slightly more aggressively to stock market developments.

As Good As It Gets? The International Dimension to Canada's Monetary Policy Strategy Choices

The Bank of Canada must take account of the international environment, where inflation targeting has become widespread, as it considers Canada’s future options. This study examines international experience with monetary policy over the past decade and the consequences of the worldwide spread of inflation-control regimes for Canada’s targeting program, which expires on December 31, 2011.monetary policy, Bank of Canada, inflation targeting

Identifying the Shocks Driving Inflation in China

The time profile of inflation in China resembles the one experienced in major industrial countries. Given the uncertainty surrounding the sources of economic shocks, this paper compares results from three sets of alternative identification conditions, namely the standard Blanchard-Quah approach, the approach of Cover, Enders, and Hueng (2006), as well as the model considered by Bordo, Landon-Lane and Redish (2004). Our principal finding is that inflation in China has been primarily driven by monetary factors. While aggregate supply factors may have pushed inflation to cross the threshold leading to deflation, monetary policy is primarily responsible for Chinese inflationary outcomes.

Financial Frictions and Credit Spreads

This paper uses the credit-friction model developed by Curdia and Woodford, in a series of papers, as the basis for attempting to mimic the behavior of credit spreads in moderate as well as crisis times. We are able to generate movements in representative credit spreads that are, at times, both sharp and volatile. We then study the impact of quantitative easing and credit easing. Credit easing is found to reduce spreads, unlike quantitative easing, which has opposite effects. The relative advantage of credit easing becomes even clearer when we allow borrowers to default on their loans. Since increases in default offset the beneficial effects of credit easing on spreads, the policy implication is that, in times of financial stress, the central bank should be aggressive when applying credit easing policies.Credit easing, credit spread, financial friction, quantitative easing.

From Floating to Monetary Union: The Economic Distance between Exchange Rate Regimes

The successful start of Economic and Monetary Union in Europe has prompted more research into the issue of exchange rate regimes and if there were any lessons to be drawn from the European experiment for other regions in the world. We review the relevant issues from an Optimum Currency Area perspective. The focus on issues relating to the suitability of switching to a common currency based on notions of economic distance and the correlation of aggregate economic shocks. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the cost of monetary union declined substantially in some target countries while it appears to have risen in others. This leads to some interesting policy implications also for the new EU members.

How Monetary Policy is Made: Two Canadian Tales

This paper examines the policy rate recommendations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council (GC) and the C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since 2003. We find, first, that differences in the median recommendations between the MPC and the GC are persistent but small (i.e., 25 bps). The median MPC recommendation is based on a higher steady state real interest rate. However, the response of the MPC and the GC to output and inflation shocks are, for the most part, comparable. Second, we are also able to examine the individual recommendations for the MPC. Estimates of the determinants of consensus inside the MPC or disagreement with the GC yield some useful insights. For example, disagreements are more likely when rates are proposed to rise than at other times. Equally interesting is the finding that the Bank of Canada conditional commitment on the overnight rate in 2009‐10 has a relatively larger restricting impact on the MPC’s median recommendation than the GC’s target rate

Inflation Dynamics: Expectations, Structural Breaks and Global Factors

There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces” on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global forces’ are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is more heterogeneous than existing narratives have argued. One’s interpretation of global influences on domestic inflation differs, according to whether poorly performing economies in inflation terms are considered as opposed to the standard practice of examining mean inflation performance. A focus on observed inflation alone ignores that inflation expectations, including a global version of this variable, also plays a critical in inflation dynamics. Finally, there are significant spillovers in inflation between AE and EME, but these too are sensitive according to relative inflation performance. Some policy implications are also drawn

Asset Prices as Indicators of Euro Area Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment of Their Role in a Taylor Rule

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, and the euro area. Performing extensive tests for over-identifying restrictions and instrument relevance, we find that asset prices can be highly relevant as instruments in policy rules. While asset prices improve Taylor rule estimates, different assets prove most relevant across countries and this result could be seen as complicating the tasks of the European Central Bank. Encompassing tests show that forecast-based outperform forward-looking Taylor rules. A policy implication is that central banks ought to release their own forecasts and the basis upon which they are generated.Monetary policy reaction functions, Asset prices, Instruments, European Central Bank