2 research outputs found
A decision support system for real-time hydropower scheduling in a competitive power market environment
The electricity supply market is rapidly changing from a monopolistic to a competitive
environment. Being able to operate their system of reservoirs and generating facilities to get
maximum benefits out of existing assets and resources is important to the British Columbia
Hydro Authority (B.C. Hydro). A decision support system has been developed to help B.C.
Hydro operate their system in an optimal way. The system is operational and is one of the
tools that are currently used by the B.C. Hydro system operations engineers to determine
optimal schedules that meet the hourly domestic load and also maximize the value B.C.
Hydro obtains from spot transactions in the Western U.S. and Alberta electricity markets.
This dissertation describes the development and implementation of the decision support
system in production mode. The decision support system consists of six components: the
input data preparation routines, the graphical user interface (GUI), the communication
protocols, the hydraulic simulation model, the optimization model, and the results display
software.
A major part of this work involved the development and implementation of a practical and
detailed large-scale optimization model that determines the optimal tradeoff between the
long-term value of water and the returns from spot trading transactions in real-time
operations. The postmortem-testing phase showed that the gains in value from using the
model accounted for 0.25% to 1.0% o f the revenues obtained. The financial returns from
using the decision support system greatly outweigh the costs of building it. Other benefits are
the savings in the time needed to prepare the generation and trading schedules. The system
operations engineers now can use the time saved to focus on other important aspects of their
job. The operators are currently experimenting with the system in production mode, and are
gradually gaining confidence that the advice it provides is accurate, reliable and sensible. The
main lesson learned from developing and implementing the system was that there is no
alternative to working very closely with the intended end-users of the system, and with the
people who have deep knowledge, experience and understanding of how the system is and
should be operated.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat
Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach
Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have
enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should
accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food
output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population
growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management
methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include
overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources,
and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current
water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the
water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional
water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management
approaches.
This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed
to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis.
The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's
alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management
approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an
experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management
framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of
water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies; a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative
water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the
analysis of change.
This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified
criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system
portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative
water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system
was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to
measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector.
The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System
Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards
improving water management practices in Jordan. The basic methodologies underlying these
management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer
software packages, such as STELLA II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of
water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage
this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way.
This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the
simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the
dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water
management.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat