A decision support system for real-time hydropower scheduling in a competitive power market environment

The electricity supply market is rapidly changing from a monopolistic to a competitive environment. Being able to operate their system of reservoirs and generating facilities to get maximum benefits out of existing assets and resources is important to the British Columbia Hydro Authority (B.C. Hydro). A decision support system has been developed to help B.C. Hydro operate their system in an optimal way. The system is operational and is one of the tools that are currently used by the B.C. Hydro system operations engineers to determine optimal schedules that meet the hourly domestic load and also maximize the value B.C. Hydro obtains from spot transactions in the Western U.S. and Alberta electricity markets. This dissertation describes the development and implementation of the decision support system in production mode. The decision support system consists of six components: the input data preparation routines, the graphical user interface (GUI), the communication protocols, the hydraulic simulation model, the optimization model, and the results display software. A major part of this work involved the development and implementation of a practical and detailed large-scale optimization model that determines the optimal tradeoff between the long-term value of water and the returns from spot trading transactions in real-time operations. The postmortem-testing phase showed that the gains in value from using the model accounted for 0.25% to 1.0% o f the revenues obtained. The financial returns from using the decision support system greatly outweigh the costs of building it. Other benefits are the savings in the time needed to prepare the generation and trading schedules. The system operations engineers now can use the time saved to focus on other important aspects of their job. The operators are currently experimenting with the system in production mode, and are gradually gaining confidence that the advice it provides is accurate, reliable and sensible. The main lesson learned from developing and implementing the system was that there is no alternative to working very closely with the intended end-users of the system, and with the people who have deep knowledge, experience and understanding of how the system is and should be operated.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat

Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach

Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources, and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management approaches. This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis. The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies; a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector. The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards improving water management practices in Jordan. The basic methodologies underlying these management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer software packages, such as STELLA II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way. This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water management.Applied Science, Faculty ofCivil Engineering, Department ofGraduat