An Econometric Appraisal of Single Currency Model on Asian Countries.

This project paper investigates empirically the relationship between the Maastricht Convergence Criteria involves inflation rate, deficit per GDP, and debt per GDP, with the GDP per capita growth rate in seven Asian countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, and Korea - over the period 1970 to 2004. Recent development methods of multivariate cointegration analysis followed by vector error-correction modeling were undertaken. The empirical results of the analysis suggest that there is a long run relationship between the Maastricht Convergence Criteria and GDP per capita growth rate for each country. In addition, the results fiom long-run equilibrium estimates show that the Maastricht Convergence Criteria, especially deficit per GDP and debt per GDP have significant negative impact on economic growth in most of the Asian economies. These results are quite consistent with the work by Afientiou and Serletis (2000) in which indicated that the Maastricht Convergence Criteria should have an adverse effect in promoting economic growth. The most interesting finding from the results of Granger-causality test is the exogeneity of debt per GDP among the Maastricht Convergence Criteria. In most cases, debt per GDP is found to be exogenous. Therefore, these findings are consistent to the results of long-run equilibrium estimates in which support that deficit per GDP and debt per GDP, in particular, is the significant policy instruments to stimulate economic growth

THE ASEAN-5 FUTURE CURRENCY: MAASTRICHT CRITERIA

In this recent decade, many of the economists and policymakers attempted to investigate the suitability of the East Asian region to form a currency union and based on the European countries experience as a benchmark. This study aims to investigate the long-run real convergence in GDP per capita growth among Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines, over 1978 to 2004. The Dickey-Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were conducted at first difference of GDP per capita for each country; the results demonstrated that all countries GDP per capita are stationary at first difference. The results of the Bound Testing Approach (Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL)) indicated that there is a long run relationship between variables in the Maastricht Criteria. The results showed that interest rate, inflation rate and the debt ratio experience that negative relationship to the GDP per capita. However, the exchange rate and surplus (or deficit) ratio shown the positive related to the GDP per capita. Therefore, the findings showed the ASEAN 5 countries have fulfilled the Maastricht Criteria with consistent to expected sign(s) except for Singapore’ exchange rate and Indonesia’s debt ratio. Hence, those ASEAN 5 countries in this study have potential to form a single currency.Monetary Union (MU), Bound Test (ARDL), Maastricht Criteria, Single Currency

THE ASEAN-5 FUTURE CURRENCY: MAASTRICHT CRITERIA

In this recent decade, many of the economists and policymakers attempted to investigate the suitability of the East Asian region to form a currency union and based on the European countries experience as a benchmark. This study aims to investigate the long-run real convergence in GDP per capita growth among Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines, over 1978 to 2004. The Dickey-Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were conducted at first difference of GDP per capita for each country; the results demonstrated that all countries GDP per capita are stationary at first difference. The results of the Bound Testing Approach (Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL)) indicated that there is a long run relationship between variables in the Maastricht Criteria. The results showed that interest rate, inflation rate and the debt ratio experience that negative relationship to the GDP per capita. However, the exchange rate and surplus (or deficit) ratio shown the positive related to the GDP per capita. Therefore, the findings showed the ASEAN 5 countries have fulfilled the Maastricht Criteria with consistent to expected sign(s) except for Singapore’ exchange rate and Indonesia’s debt ratio. Hence, those ASEAN 5 countries in this study have potential to form a single currency

Empirical Evidence on Tourism, Geopolitical Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty Relationships in Malaysia

Malaysia, celebrated for its rich cultural diversity, vibrant cities, and pristine natural landscapes, stands prominently on the global tourism map. However, the tourism industry is susceptible to the impact of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty. These external factors, shaped by global events and policy changes, can significantly influence the tourism landscape in Malaysia. Given this significance, the study aims to empirically investigate the cointegrating relationship between international inbound tourism levels (tourist arrivals), geopolitical risk (GPR index), and economic policy uncertainty (EU index) in Malaysia. The analysis uses quarterly observations from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The study employs the Granger Causality test, supported by structural VAR impulse functions and variance decomposition analysis to illustrate how economic policy uncertainty responds to shocks in tourist arrivals. The significant causal relationship observed moves from tourist arrivals to economic policy uncertainty. In other words, the study implies that variations in tourist arrivals have a lasting impact on economic policy uncertainty but not necessarily on geopolitical risk. This study provides valuable implications for policy planning and decision-making. Policymakers should consider the implications of shifts in tourism patterns for economic policy uncertainty. The absence of a long-term relationship between tourist arrivals and geopolitical risk may suggest conducting separate risk assessments to manage geopolitical risks that may affect the tourism industry in Malaysia

The ASEAN-5 future currency : maastricht criteria.

In this recent decade, many of the economists and policymakers attempted to investigate the suitability of the East Asian region to form a currency union and based on the European countries experience as a benchmark. This study aims to investigate the long run real convergence in GDP per capita growth among Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and the Philippines, over 1978 to 2004. The Dickey Fuller (DF) and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root tests were conducted at first difference of GDP per capita for each country; the results demonstrated that all countries GDP per capita are stationary at first difference. The results of the Bound Testing Approach (Auto - Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL)) indicated that there is a long run relationship betwee variables in the Maastricht Criteria. The results showed that interest rate, inflation rate and the debt ratio experience that negative relationship to the GDP per capita. However, the exchange rate and surplus (or deficit) ratio shown the positive related to the GDP per capita. Therefore, the findings showed the ASEAN 5 countries have fulfilled the Maastricht Criteria with consistent to expected sign(s) except for Singapore’ exchange rate and Indonesia’s debt ratio. Hence, those ASEAN 5 countries in this study have potential to form a single currency