Thermo-poro-mechanical coupled processes during thermal pressurization around nuclear waste repository

This paper investigates the thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior of Callovo- Oxfordian claystone, a potential host formation for prospective nuclear waste disposal in France. Thermal pore pressure appears in low permeability soils and rocks due to the difference between the thermal expansion coefficients of water and the argillaceous skeleton, as well as the low permeability of the media and the its relative rigidity, which prevent dissipation of the fluid pressure. Coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical numerical analyses have been carried out to enhance the understanding of the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone behavior subjected to heat emitted from radioactive waste that diffuses through the near-field rock to the far-field. In this view, the “thermal pressurization coefficient”, defined as the increase of pore pressure due to 1°C increase of temperature, was calculated. This coefficient depends on the nature of the rock, i.e the thermo-poro-mechanical parameters such permeability, Biot’s coefficient, rigidity, thermal conductivity as well as their anisotropies. Finally, the effect of parameters’ variability on the thermal pressurization coefficient is discussed through a sensibility analysis

Influence of tillage depth, penetration angle and forward speed on the soil/thin-blade interaction force

In this study, an experimental investigation regarding the influence of three independent variables including tillage depth (10, 15, 20 cm), angle of attack (60, 75, 90 degrees) and forward speed (0.5, 1, 1.35, 1.7 m/s) on draft force of a thin blade is presented.  Chisel plow in this research was constructed in two furrows with a blade width of 3 cm and a maximum depth of 25 cm (the distance between two blades was 1 m).  Some changes were made in the chassis of the chisel plow in order to obtain different attack angle of the blade.  The experimental work was then complemented with a new theoretical model for predicting the blade force using dimensional analysis method.  The final expression for estimating the pull resistance is as a function of several soil engineering properties (soil bulk density, soil adhesion and cohesion coefficients), blade parameters (blade width and blade rake angle) and operational conditions (tillage depth and forward speed).  Finally constants of the model were computed based on obtained experimental data.  The proposed model properly estimated the draft force of a thin blade.  Results obtained in this study indicate the stronger influence of tillage depth on the pulling force of a thin soil-working blade compared to the penetration angle and forward velocity.  The average error for the vertical blade with depth of 20, 15 and 10 cm were obtained equal to 4.5%, 4% and 1.5%, respectively.   Keywords: tillage, thin blade, chisel plow, interaction force, dimensional analysi

Insecticide susceptibility status of Phlebotomus (Paraphlebotomus) sergenti and Phlebotomus (Phlebotomus) papatasi in endemic foci of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Morocco

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In Morocco, cutaneous leishmaniasis is transmitted by <it>Phlebotomus sergenti </it>and <it>Ph. papatasi</it>. Vector control is mainly based on environmental management but indoor residual spraying with synthetic pyrethroids is applied in many foci of <it>Leishmania tropica</it>. However, the levels and distribution of sandfly susceptibility to insecticides currently used has not been studied yet. Hence, this study was undertaken to establish the susceptibility status of <it>Ph. sergenti </it>and <it>Ph. papatasi </it>to lambdacyhalothrin, DDT and malathion.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The insecticide susceptibility status of <it>Ph. sergenti </it>and <it>Ph. papatasi </it>was assessed during 2011, following the standard WHO technique based on discriminating dosage. A series of twenty-five susceptibility tests were carried out on wild populations of <it>Ph. sergenti </it>and <it>Ph. papatasi </it>collected by CDC light traps from seven villages in six different provinces. Knockdown rates (KDT) were noted at 5 min intervals during the exposure to DDT and to lambdacyhalothrin. After one hour of exposure, sandflies were transferred to the observation tubes for 24 hours. After this period, mortality rate was calculated. Data were analyzed by Probit analysis program to determine the knockdown time 50% and 90% (KDT50 and KDT90) values.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Study results showed that <it>Ph.sergenti </it>and <it>Ph. papatasi </it>were susceptible to all insecticides tested. Comparison of KDT values showed a clear difference between the insecticide knockdown effect in studied villages. This effect was lower in areas subject to high selective public health insecticide pressure in the framework of malaria or leishmaniasis control.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>Phlebotomus sergenti </it>and <it>Ph. papatasi </it>are susceptible to the insecticides tested in the seven studied villages but they showed a low knockdown effect in Azilal, Chichaoua and Settat. Therefore, a study of insecticide susceptibility of these vectors in other foci of leishmaniasis is recommended and the level of their susceptibility should be regularly monitored.</p

Viral Load, Clinical Disease Severity and Cellular Immune Responses in Primary Varicella Zoster Virus Infection in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND: In Sri Lanka, varicella zoster virus (VZV) is typically acquired during adulthood with significant associated disease morbidity and mortality. T cells are believed to be important in the control of VZV replication and in the prevention of reactivation. The relationship between viral load, disease severity and cellular immune responses in primary VZV infection has not been well studied. METHODOLOGY: We used IFNgamma ELISpot assays and MHC class II tetramers based on VZV gE and IE63 epitopes, together with quantitative real time PCR assays to compare the frequency and phenotype of specific T cells with virological and clinical outcomes in 34 adult Sri Lankan individuals with primary VZV infection. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Viral loads were found to be significantly higher in patients with moderate to severe infection compared to those with mild infection (p&lt;0.001) and were significantly higher in those over 25 years of age (P&lt;0.01). A significant inverse correlation was seen between the viral loads and the ex vivo IFNgamma ELISpot responses of patients (P&lt;0.001, r = -0.85). VZV-specific CD4+ T cells expressed markers of intermediate differentiation and activation. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these data show that increased clinical severity in Sri Lankan adults with primary VZV infection associates with higher viral load and reduced viral specific T cell responses

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by cataract: a meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

Background: To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by cataract and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and gray literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends. We developed prevalence estimates based on modeled distance visual impairment and blindness due to cataract, producing location-, year-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of moderate to severe vision impairment (MSVI presenting visual acuity &lt;6/18, ≥3/60) and blindness (presenting visual acuity &lt;3/60). Estimates are age-standardized using the GBD standard population. Results: In 2020, among overall (all ages) 43.3 million blind and 295 million with MSVI, 17.0 million (39.6%) people were blind and 83.5 million (28.3%) had MSVI due to cataract blind 60% female, MSVI 59% female. From 1990 to 2020, the count of persons blind (MSVI) due to cataract increased by 29.7%(93.1%) whereas the age-standardized global prevalence of cataract-related blindness improved by −27.5% and MSVI increased by 7.2%. The contribution of cataract to the age-standardized prevalence of blindness exceeded the global figure only in South Asia (62.9%) and Southeast Asia and Oceania (47.9%). Conclusions: The number of people blind and with MSVI due to cataract has risen over the past 30 years, despite a decrease in the age-standardized prevalence of cataract. This indicates that cataract treatment programs have been beneficial, but population growth and aging have outpaced their impact. Growing numbers of cataract blind indicate that more, better-directed, resources are needed to increase global capacity for cataract surgery.</p

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic