Cluster Cepheids with High Precision Gaia Parallaxes, Low Zeropoint Uncertainties, and Hubble Space Telescope Photometry

We present HST photometry of 17 Cepheids in open clusters and their mean parallaxes from Gaia EDR3. These parallaxes are more precise than those from individual Cepheids (G<8 mag) previously used to measure the Hubble constant because they are derived from an average of >300 stars per cluster. Cluster parallaxes also have smaller systematic uncertainty because their stars lie in the range (G>13 mag) where the Gaia parallax calibration is most comprehensive. Cepheid photometry employed in the period--luminosity relation was measured using the same instrument(WFC3) and filters(F555W,F814W,F160W) as extragalactic Cepheids in SNIa hosts. We find no evidence of residual parallax offset in this magnitude range, zp=-3+/-4 muas, consistent with Lindegren:2021b and most studies. The Cepheid luminosity (P=10d, solar-metallicity) in the HST near-infrared, Wesenheit system derived from the cluster sample is M_{H,1}^W=-5.902+/-0.025 and -5.890+/-0.018 mag with or without simultaneous determination of a parallax offset, respectively. These results are similar to measurements from field Cepheids, confirming the accuracy of the Gaia parallaxes over a broad range of magnitudes. The SH0ES distance ladder calibrated solely from this sample gives H_0=72.8+/-1.3 and H_0=73.2+/-1.1 km/s/Mpc with or without offset marginalization; combined with all anchors we find H_0=73.01+/-0.99 and 73.15+/-0.97, respectively, a 5% or 7% reduction in the uncertainty and a 5.3 sigma Hubble Tension relative to Planck+LambdaCDM. It appears increasingly difficult to reconcile two of the best measured cosmic scales, parallaxes from Gaia and the angular size of the acoustic scale of the CMB, using the simplest form of LambdaCDM to join the two.Comment: 12 pages, submitted to ApJ, comments welcom

Leveraging SN Ia spectroscopic similarity to improve the measurement of H0H_0

Recent studies suggest spectroscopic differences explain a fraction of the variation in Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) luminosities after light-curve/color standardization. In this work, (i) we empirically characterize the variations of standardized SN Ia luminosities, and (ii) we use a spectroscopically inferred parameter, SIP, to improve the precision of SNe Ia along the distance ladder and the determination of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). First, we show that the \texttt{Pantheon+} covariance model modestly overestimates the uncertainty of standardized magnitudes by $\sim 7$%, in the parameter space used by the $\texttt{SH0ES}$ Team to measure $H_0$; accounting for this alone yields $H_0 = 73.01 \pm 0.92$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. Furthermore, accounting for spectroscopic similarity between SNe~Ia on the distance ladder reduces their relative scatter to $\sim0.12$ mag per object (compared to $\sim 0.14$ mag previously). Combining these two findings in the model of SN covariance, we find an overall 14% reduction (to $\pm 0.85$km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$) of the uncertainty in the Hubble constant and a modest increase in its value. Including a budget for systematic uncertainties itemized by Riess et al. (2022a), we report an updated local Hubble constant with $\sim1.2$% uncertainty, $H_0 = 73.29 \pm 0.90$km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$. We conclude that spectroscopic differences among photometrically standardized SNe Ia do not explain the ``Hubble tension." Rather, accounting for such differences increases its significance, as the discrepancy against $\Lambda$CDM calibrated by the ${\it Planck}$ 2018 measurement rises to 5.7$\sigma$.Comment: 28 pages, 15 figures, accepted to JCA

Type Ia Supernova Distances at z > 1.5 from the Hubble Space Telescope Multi-Cycle Treasury Programs: The Early Expansion Rate

We present an analysis of 15 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) at redshift z > 1 (9 at 1.5 < z < 2.3) recently discovered in the CANDELS and CLASH Multi-Cycle Treasury programs using WFC3 on the Hubble Space Telescope. We combine these SNe Ia with a new compilation of 1050 SNe Ia, jointly calibrated and corrected for simulated survey biases to produce accurate distance measurements. We present unbiased constraints on the expansion rate at six redshifts in the range 0.07 < z < 1.5 based only on this combined SN Ia sample. The added leverage of our new sample at z > 1.5 leads to a factor of ~3 improvement in the determination of the expansion rate at z = 1.5, reducing its uncertainty to ~20%, a measurement of H(z=1.5)/H0=2.67 (+0.83,-0.52). We then demonstrate that these six measurements alone provide a nearly identical characterization of dark energy as the full SN sample, making them an efficient compression of the SN Ia data. The new sample of SNe Ia at z > 1 usefully distinguishes between alternative cosmological models and unmodeled evolution of the SN Ia distance indicators, placing empirical limits on the latter. Finally, employing a realistic simulation of a potential WFIRST SN survey observing strategy, we forecast optimistic future constraints on the expansion rate from SNe Ia.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables; submitted to Ap

A Comprehensive Measurement of the Local Value of the Hubble Constant with 1 km/s/Mpc Uncertainty from the Hubble Space Telescope and the SH0ES Team

We report observations from HST of Cepheids in the hosts of 42 SNe Ia used to calibrate the Hubble constant (H0). These include all suitable SNe Ia in the last 40 years at z1000 orbits, more than doubling the sample whose size limits the precision of H0. The Cepheids are calibrated geometrically from Gaia EDR3 parallaxes, masers in N4258 (here tripling that Cepheid sample), and DEBs in the LMC. The Cepheids were measured with the same WFC3 instrument and filters (F555W, F814W, F160W) to negate zeropoint errors. We present multiple verifications of Cepheid photometry and tests of background determinations that show measurements are accurate in the presence of crowding. The SNe calibrate the mag-z relation from the new Pantheon+ compilation, accounting here for covariance between all SN data, with host properties and SN surveys matched to negate differences. We decrease the uncertainty in H0 to 1 km/s/Mpc with systematics. We present a comprehensive set of ~70 analysis variants to explore the sensitivity of H0 to selections of anchors, SN surveys, z range, variations in the analysis of dust, metallicity, form of the P-L relation, SN color, flows, sample bifurcations, and simultaneous measurement of H(z). Our baseline result from the Cepheid-SN sample is H0=73.04+-1.04 km/s/Mpc, which includes systematics and lies near the median of all analysis variants. We demonstrate consistency with measures from HST of the TRGB between SN hosts and NGC 4258 with Cepheids and together these yield 72.53+-0.99. Including high-z SN Ia we find H0=73.30+-1.04 with q0=-0.51+-0.024. We find a 5-sigma difference with H0 predicted by Planck+LCDM, with no indication this arises from measurement errors or analysis variations considered to date. The source of this now long-standing discrepancy between direct and cosmological routes to determining the Hubble constant remains unknown.Comment: 67 pages, 31 figures, replaced to match ApJ accepted version (March 2022), Table 6 distances included here, long form of photometry tables, fitting code, compact form of data, available from Github page, https://pantheonplussh0es.github.i

Photometric Classification of 2315 Pan-STARRS1 Supernovae with Superphot

The classification of supernovae (SNe) and its impact on our understanding of explosion physics and progenitors have traditionally been based on the presence or absence of certain spectral features. However, current and upcoming wide-field time-domain surveys have increased the transient discovery rate far beyond our capacity to obtain even a single spectrum of each new event. We must therefore rely heavily on photometric classification— connecting SN light curves back to their spectroscopically defined classes. Here, we present Superphot, an opensource Python implementation of the machine-learning classification algorithm of Villar et al., and apply it to 2315 previously unclassified transients from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey for which we obtained spectroscopic host-galaxy redshifts. Our classifier achieves an overall accuracy of 82%, with completenesses and purities of >80% for the best classes (SNe Ia and superluminous SNe). For the worst performing SN class (SNe Ibc), the completeness and purity fall to 37% and 21%, respectively. Our classifier provides 1257 newly classified SNe Ia, 521 SNe II, 298 SNe Ibc, 181 SNe IIn, and 58 SLSNe. These are among the largest uniformly observed samples of SNe available in the literature and will enable a wide range of statistical studies of each class

Cosmological Synergies Enabled by Joint Analysis of Multi-probe data from WFIRST, Euclid, and LSST

WFIRST, Euclid, and LSST are all missions designed to perform dedicated cosmology surveys that offer unprecedented statistical constraining power and control of systematic uncertainties. There is a growing realization that these missions will be significantly more powerful when the data are processed and analyzed in unison