Observation-based modelling of magnetised coronal mass ejections with EUHFORIA

Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary source of strong space weather disturbances at Earth. Their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic fields, for which reliable predictions at Earth are not possible with traditional cone CME models. Aims. We study two well-observed Earth-directed CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUH-FORIA) model, testing for the first time the predictive capabilities of a linear force-free spheromak CME model initialised using parameters derived from remote-sensing observations. Methods. Using observation-based CME input parameters, we performed magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the events with EU-HFORIA, using the cone and spheromak CME models. Results. Simulations show that spheromak CMEs propagate faster than cone CMEs when initialised with the same kinematic parameters. We interpret these differences as the result of different Lorentz forces acting within cone and spheromak CMEs, which lead to different CME expansions in the heliosphere. Such discrepancies can be mitigated by initialising spheromak CMEs with a reduced speed corresponding to the radial speed only. Results at Earth provide evidence that the spheromak model improves the predictions of B (B-z) by up to 12-60 (22-40) percentage points compared to a cone model. Considering virtual spacecraft located within +/- 10 degrees around Earth, B (Bz) predictions reach 45-70% (58-78%) of the observed peak values. The spheromak model shows inaccurate predictions of the magnetic field parameters at Earth for CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line. Conclusions. The spheromak model successfully predicts the CME properties and arrival time in the case of strictly Earth-directed events, while modelling CMEs propagating away from the Sun-Earth line requires extra care due to limitations related to the assumed spherical shape. The spatial variability of modelling results and the typical uncertainties in the reconstructed CME direction advocate the need to consider predictions at Earth and at virtual spacecraft located around it.Peer reviewe

Observation-based modelling of the energetic storm particle event of 14 July 2012

Aims. We model the energetic storm particle (ESP) event of 14 July 2012 using the energetic particle acceleration and transport model named 'PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration' (PARADISE), together with the solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) model named 'EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset' (EUHFORIA). The simulation results illustrate both the capabilities and limitations of the utilised models. We show that the models capture some essential structural features of the ESP event; however, for some aspects the simulations and observations diverge. We describe and, to some extent, assess the sources of errors in the modelling chain of EUHFORIA and PARADISE and discuss how they may be mitigated in the future. Methods. The PARADISE model computes energetic particle distributions in the heliosphere by solving the focused transport equation in a stochastic manner. This is done using a background solar wind configuration generated by the ideal magnetohydrodynamic module of EUHFORIA. The CME generating the ESP event is simulated by using the spheromak model of EUHFORIA, which approximates the CME's flux rope as a linear force-free spheroidal magnetic field. In addition, a tool was developed to trace CME-driven shock waves in the EUHFORIA simulation domain. This tool is used in PARADISE to (i) inject 50 keV protons continuously at the CME-driven shock and (ii) include a foreshock and a sheath region, in which the energetic particle parallel mean free path, lambda(parallel to), decreases towards the shock wave. The value of lambda(parallel to) at the shock wave is estimated from in situ observations of the ESP event. Results. For energies below similar to 1 MeV, the simulation results agree well with both the upstream and downstream components of the ESP event observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer. This suggests that these low-energy protons are mainly the result of interplanetary particle acceleration. In the downstream region, the sharp drop in the energetic particle intensities is reproduced at the entry into the following magnetic cloud, illustrating the importance of a magnetised CME model.Peer reviewe

Effect of the Initial Shape of Coronal Mass Ejections on 3-D MHD Simulations and Geoeffectiveness Predictions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the major space weather drivers, and an accurate modeling of their onset and propagation up to 1 AU represents a key issue for more reliable space weather forecasts. In this paper we use the newly developed European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) heliospheric model to test the effect of different CME shapes on simulation outputs. In particular, we investigate the notion of "spherical" CME shape, with the aim of bringing to the attention of the space weather community the great implications of the CME shape implementation details for simulation results and geoeffectiveness predictions. We take as case study an artificial Earth-directed CME launched on 6 June 2008, corresponding to a period of quiet solar wind conditions near Earth. We discuss the implementation of the cone model used to inject the CME into the modeled ambient solar wind, running several simulations of the event and investigating the outputs in interplanetary space and at different spacecraft and planetary locations. We apply empirical relations to simulation outputs at L1 to estimate the expected CME geoeffectiveness in terms of the magnetopause stand-off distance and the induced Kp index. Our analysis shows that talking about spherical CMEs is ambiguous unless one has detailed information on the implementation of the CME shape in the model. All the parameters specifying the CME shape in the model significantly affect simulation results at 1 AU as well as the predicted CME geoeffectiveness, confirming the pivotal role played by the shape implementation details in space weather forecasts.Peer reviewe

Observation-based modelling of the energetic storm particle event of 14 July 2012

Aims. We model the energetic storm particle (ESP) event of 14 July 2012 using the energetic particle acceleration and transport model named 'PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration' (PARADISE), together with the solar wind and coronal mass ejection (CME) model named 'EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset' (EUHFORIA). The simulation results illustrate both the capabilities and limitations of the utilised models. We show that the models capture some essential structural features of the ESP event; however, for some aspects the simulations and observations diverge. We describe and, to some extent, assess the sources of errors in the modelling chain of EUHFORIA and PARADISE and discuss how they may be mitigated in the future. Methods. The PARADISE model computes energetic particle distributions in the heliosphere by solving the focused transport equation in a stochastic manner. This is done using a background solar wind configuration generated by the ideal magnetohydrodynamic module of EUHFORIA. The CME generating the ESP event is simulated by using the spheromak model of EUHFORIA, which approximates the CME's flux rope as a linear force-free spheroidal magnetic field. In addition, a tool was developed to trace CME-driven shock waves in the EUHFORIA simulation domain. This tool is used in PARADISE to (i) inject 50 keV protons continuously at the CME-driven shock and (ii) include a foreshock and a sheath region, in which the energetic particle parallel mean free path, lambda(parallel to), decreases towards the shock wave. The value of lambda(parallel to) at the shock wave is estimated from in situ observations of the ESP event. Results. For energies below similar to 1 MeV, the simulation results agree well with both the upstream and downstream components of the ESP event observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer. This suggests that these low-energy protons are mainly the result of interplanetary particle acceleration. In the downstream region, the sharp drop in the energetic particle intensities is reproduced at the entry into the following magnetic cloud, illustrating the importance of a magnetised CME model

Coronal Hole Detection and Open Magnetic Flux

Many scientists use coronal hole (CH) detections to infer open magnetic flux. Detection techniques differ in the areas that they assign as open, and may obtain different values for the open magnetic flux. We characterize the uncertainties of these methods, by applying six different detection methods to deduce the area and open flux of a near-disk center CH observed on 2010 September 19, and applying a single method to five different EUV filtergrams for this CH. Open flux was calculated using five different magnetic maps. The standard deviation (interpreted as the uncertainty) in the open flux estimate for this CH approximate to 26%. However, including the variability of different magnetic data sources, this uncertainty almost doubles to 45%. We use two of the methods to characterize the area and open flux for all CHs in this time period. We find that the open flux is greatly underestimated compared to values inferred from in situ measurements (by 2.2-4 times). We also test our detection techniques on simulated emission images from a thermodynamic MHD model of the solar corona. We find that the methods overestimate the area and open flux in the simulated CH, but the average error in the flux is only about 7%. The full-Sun detections on the simulated corona underestimate the model open flux, but by factors well below what is needed to account for the missing flux in the observations. Under-detection of open flux in coronal holes likely contributes to the recognized deficit in solar open flux, but is unlikely to resolve it.Peer reviewe

New Observations Needed to Advance Our Understanding of Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions from the Sun that propagate through the heliosphere after launch. Observational studies of these transient phenomena are usually based on 2D images of the Sun, corona, and heliosphere (remote-sensing data), as well as magnetic field, plasma, and particle samples along a 1D spacecraft trajectory (in-situ data). Given the large scales involved and the 3D nature of CMEs, such measurements are generally insufficient to build a comprehensive picture, especially in terms of local variations and overall geometry of the whole structure. This White Paper aims to address this issue by identifying the data sets and observational priorities that are needed to effectively advance our current understanding of the structure and evolution of CMEs, in both the remote-sensing and in-situ regimes. It also provides an outlook of possible missions and instruments that may yield significant improvements into the subject.Comment: White Paper submitted to the Heliophysics 2024-2033 Decadal Survey, 9 pages, 4 figure

The Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST)

We report on a study of the Multiview Observatory for Solar Terrestrial Science (MOST) mission that will provide comprehensive imagery and time series data needed to understand the magnetic connection between the solar interior and the solar atmosphere/inner heliosphere. MOST will build upon the successes of SOHO and STEREO missions with new views of the Sun and enhanced instrument capabilities. This article is based on a study conducted at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center that determined the required instrument refinement, spacecraft accommodation, launch configuration, and flight dynamics for mission success. MOST is envisioned as the next generation great observatory positioned to obtain three-dimensional information of large-scale heliospheric structures such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and the solar wind itself. The MOST mission consists of 2 pairs of spacecraft located in the vicinity of Sun-Earth Lagrange points L4 (MOST1, MOST3) and L5 (MOST2 and MOST4). The spacecraft stationed at L4 (MOST1) and L5 (MOST2) will each carry seven remote-sensing and three in-situ instrument suites. MOST will also carry a novel radio package known as the Faraday Effect Tracker of Coronal and Heliospheric structures (FETCH). FETCH will have polarized radio transmitters and receivers on all four spacecraft to measure the magnetic content of solar wind structures propagating from the Sun to Earth using the Faraday rotation technique. The MOST mission will be able to sample the magnetized plasma throughout the Sun-Earth connected space during the mission lifetime over a solar cycle.Comment: 42 pages, 19 figures, 8 tables, to appear in J. Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physic

Using gradient boosting regression to improve ambient solar wind model predictions

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure‐driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth’s magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are used to output the solar wind conditions near the Earth. The results are compared to observations and existing models in a comprehensive validation analysis, and the new model outperforms existing models in almost all measures. In addition, this approach offers a new perspective to discuss the role of different input data to ambient solar wind modeling, and what this tells us about the underlying physical processes. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well‐validated and open‐source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth

Improving predictions of high-latitude Coronal Mass Ejections throughout the heliosphere

Predictions of the impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere mostly rely on cone CME models, whose performances are optimized for locations in the ecliptic plane and at 1 AU (e.g., at Earth). Progresses in the exploration of the inner heliosphere, however, advocate the need to assess their performances at both higher latitudes and smaller heliocentric distances. In this work, we perform 3-D magnetohydrodynamics simulations of artificial cone CMEs using the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), investigating the performances of cone models in the case of CMEs launched at high latitudes. We compare results obtained initializing CMEs using a commonly applied approximated (Euclidean) distance relation and using a proper (great circle) distance relation. Results show that initializing high-latitude CMEs using the Euclidean approximation results in a teardrop-shaped CME cross section at the model inner boundary that fails in reproducing the initial shape of high-latitude cone CMEs as a circular cross section. Modeling errors arising from the use of an inappropriate distance relation at the inner boundary eventually propagate to the heliospheric domain. Errors are most prominent in simulations of high-latitude CMEs and at the location of spacecraft at high latitudes and/or small distances from the Sun, with locations impacted by the CME flanks being the most error sensitive. This work shows that the low-latitude approximations commonly employed in cone models, if not corrected, may significantly affect CME predictions at various locations compatible with the orbit of space missions such as Parker Solar Probe, Ulysses, and Solar Orbiter.Peer reviewe

Effect of the initial shape of Coronal Mass Ejections on 3D MHD simulations and geoeffectiveness predictions

©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the major space weather drivers, and an accurate modeling of their onset and propagation up to 1 AU represents a key issue for more reliable space weather forecasts. In this paper we use the newly developed EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) heliospheric model to test the effect of different CME shapes on simulation outputs. In particular, we investigate the notion of “spherical” CME shape, with the aim of bringing to the attention of the space weather community the great implications of the CME shape implementation details for simulation results and geoeffectiveness predictions. We take as case study an artificial Earth-directed CME launched on 6 June 2008, corresponding to a period of quiet solar wind conditions near Earth. We discuss the implementation of the cone model used to inject the CME into the modeled ambient solar wind, running several simulations of the event and investigating the outputs in interplanetary space and at different spacecraft and planetary locations. We apply empirical relations to simulation outputs at L1 to estimate the expected CME geoeffectiveness in terms of the magnetopause stand-off distance and the induced Kp index. Our analysis shows that talking about spherical CMEs is ambiguous unless one has detailed information on the implementation of the CME shape in the model. All the parameters specifying the CME shape in the model significantly affect simulation results at 1 AU as well as the predicted CME geoeffectiveness, confirming the pivotal role played by the shape implementation details in space weather forecasts.status: publishe