A Bayesian analysis of the effect of estimating annual average daily traffic for heavy-duty trucks using training and validation data-sets

The precise estimation of annual average daily traffic (AADT) is of significant importance worldwide for transportation agencies. This paper uses three modeling frameworks to predict the AADT for heavy-duty trucks. In total, 12 models are developed based on regression and Bayesian analysis using a training data-set. A separate validation data-set is used to compare the results from the 12 models, spanning the years 2005 through 2007 and taken from 67 continuous data recorders. Parameters of significance include roadway functional class, population density, and spatial location; five regional areas – northeast, northwest, central, southeast, and southwest – of the state of Ohio in the USA; and average daily truck traffic. The results show that a full Bayesian negative binomial model with a coefficient offset is the most efficient model framework for all four seasons of the year. This model is able to account for between 87% and 92% of the variability within the data-set

Charge 4e4e superconductivity from pair density wave order in certain high temperature superconductors

A number of spectacular experimental anomalies\cite{li-2007,fujita-2005} have recently been discovered in certain cuprates, notably {\LBCO} and {\LNSCO}, which exhibit unidirectional spin and charge order (known as ``stripe order''). We have recently proposed to interpret these observations as evidence for a novel ``striped superconducting'' state, in which the superconducting order parameter is modulated in space, such that its average is precisely zero. Here, we show that thermal melting of the striped superconducting state can lead to a number of unusual phases, of which the most novel is a charge $4e$ superconducting state, with a corresponding fractional flux quantum $hc/4e$. These are never-before observed states of matter, and ones, moreover, that cannot arise from the conventional Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) mechanism. Thus, direct confirmation of their existence, even in a small subset of the cuprates, could have much broader implications for our understanding of high temperature superconductivity. We propose experiments to observe fractional flux quantization, which thereby could confirm the existence of these states.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures; new version in Nature Physics format with a discussion of the effective Josephson coupling J2 and minor changes. Mildly edited abstract. v3: corrected versio

Benefits and Harms of Electrical Neuromodulation for Chronic Pelvic Pain: A Systematic Review

Context: Patients with chronic pelvic pain (CPP) may have pain refractory to conventional pain management strategies. Neuromodulation could provide relief of pain. / Objective: To evaluate the benefits and harms of neuromodulation for CPP. / Evidence acquisition:: A comprehensive search of EMBASE, PUBMED, and SCOPUS was performed for the entire database to January 2018. Studies were selected, data were extracted, and quality was assessed by two independent reviewers. A meta-analysis was used to combine randomized controlled trials (RCTs); otherwise, a narrative analysis was used. / Evidence synthesis: After screening 1311 abstracts, 36 studies including eight RCTs were identified, enrolling 1099 patients. Studies covered a broad range in terms of phenotypes of CPP and methods of neuromodulation. A meta-analysis was possible for percutaneous tibial nerve stimulation and transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation, which showed improvement in pain. Only narrative synthesis was possible for other modalities (sacral nerve stimulation, spinal cord stimulation, intravaginal electrical stimulation, and pudendal nerve stimulation) which appeared to reduce pain in patients with CPP. Treatments generally improved quality of life but with variable reporting of adverse events. Many studies showed high risks of bias and confounding. / Conclusions: While electrical neuromodulation may improve symptoms in CPP, further work is needed with high-quality studies to confirm it. / Patient summary: Neuromodulation may be useful in reducing pain and improving quality of life in patients with chronic pelvic pain, but more research is needed

The origin of dust in galaxies revisited: the mechanism determining dust content

The origin of cosmic dust is a fundamental issue in planetary science. This paper revisits the origin of dust in galaxies, in particular, in the Milky Way, by using a chemical evolution model of a galaxy composed of stars, interstellar medium, metals (elements heavier than helium), and dust. We start from a review of time-evolutionary equations of the four components, and then, we present simple recipes for the stellar remnant mass and yields of metal and dust based on models of stellar nucleosynthesis and dust formation. After calibrating some model parameters with the data from the solar neighborhood, we have confirmed a shortage of the stellar dust production rate relative to the dust destruction rate by supernovae if the destruction efficiency suggested by theoretical works is correct. If the dust mass growth by material accretion in molecular clouds is active, the observed dust amount in the solar neighborhood is reproduced. We present a clear analytic explanation of the mechanism for determining dust content in galaxies after the activation of accretion growth: a balance between accretion growth and supernova destruction. Thus, the dust content is independent of the uncertainty of the stellar dust yield after the growth activation. The timing of the activation is determined by a critical metal mass fraction which depends on the growth and destruction efficiencies. The solar system formation seems to have occurred well after the activation and plenty of dust would have existed in the proto-solar nebula.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

Multitemperature mapping of dust structures throughout the Galactic Plane using the PPMAP tool with Herschel Hi-GAL data

We describe new Hi-GAL based maps of the entire Galactic Plane, obtained using continuum data in the wavelength range 70–500 μm. These maps are derived with the PPMAP procedure, and therefore represent a significant improvement over those obtained with standard analysis techniques. Specifically they have greatly improved resolution (12 arcsec) and, in addition to more accurate integrated column densities and mean dust temperatures, they give temperature-differential column densities, i.e., separate column density maps in twelve distinct dust temperature intervals, along with the corresponding uncertainty maps. The complete set of maps is available online. We briefly describe PPMAP and present some illustrative examples of the results. These include (a) multi-temperature maps of the Galactic H II region W5-E, (b) the temperature decomposition of molecular cloud column-density probability distribution functions, and (c) the global variation of mean dust temperature as a function of Galactocentric distance. Amongst our findings are: (i) a strong localised temperature gradient in W5-E in a direction orthogonal to that towards the ionising star, suggesting an alternative heating source and providing possible guidance for models of the formation of the bubble complex, and (ii) the overall radial profile of dust temperature in the Galaxy shows a monotonic decrease, broadly consistent both with models of the interstellar radiation field and with previous estimates at lower resolution. However, we also find a central temperature plateau within ∼6 kpc of the Galactic centre, outside of which is a pronounced steepening of the radial profile. This behaviour may reflect the greater proportion of molecular (as opposed to atomic) gas in the central region of the Galaxy

Impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rate and cause of death in severe mental illness

Background: Socioeconomic status has important associations with disease-specific mortality in the general population. Although individuals with Severe Mental Illnesses (SMI) experience significant premature mortality, the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality in this group remains under investigated.<p></p> Aims: To assess the impact of socioeconomic status on rate and cause of death in individuals with SMI (schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) relative to the local (Glasgow) and wider (Scottish) populations.<p></p> Methods: Cause and age of death during 2006-2010 inclusive for individuals with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder registered on the Glasgow Psychosis Clinical Information System (PsyCIS) were obtained by linkage to the Scottish General Register Office (GRO). Rate and cause of death by socioeconomic status, measured by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), were compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations.<p></p> Results: Death rates were higher in people with SMI across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations, and persisted when suicide was excluded. Differences were largest in the most deprived quintile (794.6 per 10,000 population vs. 274.7 and 252.4 for Glasgow and Scotland respectively). Cause of death varied by socioeconomic status. For those living in the most deprived quintile, higher drug-related deaths occurred in those with SMI compared to local Glasgow and wider Scottish population rates (12.3% vs. 5.9%, p = <0.001 and 5.1% p = 0.002 respectively). A lower proportion of deaths due to cancer in those with SMI living in the most deprived quintile were also observed, relative to the local Glasgow and wider Scottish populations (12.3% vs. 25.1% p = 0.013 and 26.3% p = <0.001). The proportion of suicides was significantly higher in those with SMI living in the more affluent quintiles relative to Glasgow and Scotland (54.6% vs. 5.8%, p = <0.001 and 5.5%, p = <0.001). Discussion and conclusions: Excess mortality in those with SMI occurred across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations but was most marked in the most deprived quintiles when suicide was excluded as a cause of death. Further work assessing the impact of socioeconomic status on specific causes of premature mortality in SMI is needed