Development of a nuclear test strategy for Test Program Element II

As part of Phase O in Test Program Element II of the Office of Fusion Energy's First Wall/Blanket/Shield Engineering Test Program, a test strategy has been developed to address the blanket/shield's (B/S's) thermal-hydraulic and thermomechanical data needs, which were identified in an earlier task through the use of nuclear and supporting nonnuclear testing. In Phase I, which extends through 1984, this strategy emphasizes the development of pre-design information and the nonnuclear supporting tests. After Phase I, nuclear testing will be emphasized, and B/S design-verification testing will become more important. The proposed program will investigate a solid-breeder-blanket concept via nuclear testing. This program can begin in Phase I with nonnuclear support tests, and can progress to integrated nuclear testing soon after the completion of Phase I. The program's approximate cost and schedule are presented. In addition, other possible areas of study for Phase I, and strategies for the use of nuclear and nonnuclear facilities after Phase I are outlined

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario

Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study

We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the "alternative" scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of "dangerous" effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1°C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1°C if climate sensitivity is ~3°C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2σ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10σ, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience. We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is "dangerous", but reduction of non-CO2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are required to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario

Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.Comment: 44 pages; 19 figures; Final text accepted by Climate Dynamic

Some applications of fission-based testing capabilities in the development of fusion technology

The testing of fusion materials and components in fission reactors will be increasingly important in the future due to the near-term lack of fusion engineering test devices, and the long-term high demand for fusion testing when they do become available. Fission testing is capable of filling many gaps in fusion reactor design information, and should be aggressively pursued. EG and G Idaho has investigated the application of fission testing in three areas, which are discussed in this paper. First, work was performed on the irradiation of magnet insulators. This work is continuing with an improved test environment. Second, a study was performed which indicated that a fission-suppressed hybrid blanket module could be effectively tested in a reactor such as the Engineering Test Reactor (ETR), closely reproducing the predicted performance in a fusion environment. Finally, a conceptual design is presented for a fission-based Integrated Test Facility (ITF), which can accommodate entire wall/blanket (FW/B) modules for testing in a nuclear environment, simultaneously satisfying many of the FW/B test requirements. This ITF can provide a cyclic neutron/gamma flux, as well as the necessary module support functions