Preaching water while drinking wine? Time preferences of fishery advisors and implications for management

Fishermen are often advised to be more patient and limit catches now, in order to increase stock size and catches in the future. Such scientific advice is usually based on the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) objective. This biological criterion is often consistent with economic interests at low discount rates. The aim of this paper is to check if fishery managers are as patient as they advise fishermen to be. To answer this question, we performed a field experiment with 474 members of the ICES community, which is the major scientific advice-giving organization in North-Atlantic fisheries. Using an online questionnaire, we performed a simple economic experiment to reveal the time-preferences (i.e. interest rates) of scientists. Variability in stated time-preferences was high, with interest rates ranging from zero to >50%. More than 40% of the ICES community opted for interest rates >10%. We apply the observed interest rates in age-structured bio-economic models of two important cod fisheries and find that the long-term optimal spawning stock biomass is drastically lower than in the MSY base case for interest rates >10%. It seems that there is some evidence of preaching water while drinking wine in the fisheries management sector

Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Bacterial Manipulation of NK Cell Regulatory Activity Increases Susceptibility to <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> Infection

<div><p>Natural killer (NK) cells produce interferon (IFN)-γ and thus have been suggested to promote type I immunity during bacterial infections. Yet, <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> (Lm) and some other pathogens encode proteins that cause increased NK cell activation. Here, we show that stimulation of NK cell activation increases susceptibility during Lm infection despite and independent from robust NK cell production of IFNγ. The increased susceptibility correlated with IL-10 production by responding NK cells. NK cells produced IL-10 as their IFNγ production waned and the Lm virulence protein p60 promoted induction of IL-10 production by mouse and human NK cells. NK cells consequently exerted regulatory effects to suppress accumulation and activation of inflammatory myeloid cells. Our results reveal new dimensions of the role played by NK cells during Lm infection and demonstrate the ability of this bacterial pathogen to exploit the induction of regulatory NK cell activity to increase host susceptibility.</p></div

Vitamin K antagonist control in patients with atrial fibrillation in Asia compared with other regions of the world: Real-world data from the GARFIELD-AF registry

Objective: To compare the distribution of international normalized ratios (INRs) in patients receiving vitamin K antagonist (VKA) for newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in Eastern and Southeastern Asia and in other regions of the world (ORW) represented in the ongoing, global observational study GARFIELD-AF

Evolving antithrombotic treatment patterns for patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation

Objective We studied evolving antithrombotic therapy patterns in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and >= 1 additional stroke risk factor between 2010 and 2015

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF

The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year

Evolving quality standards for large-scale registries: the GARFIELD-AF experience

Aim