The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX)

International audienceUsers of hydrologic predictions need reliable, quantitative forecast information, including estimates of uncertainty, for lead times ranging from less than an hour during flash flooding events to more than a year for long-term water management. To meet this need, operational agencies are developing hydrological ensemble forecast techniques to account for sources of uncertainty such as future precipitation, initial hydrological conditions, and hydrological model limitations including uncertain model parameters. Research advances in areas such as hydrologic modeling, data assimilation, ensemble prediction, and forecast verification need to be incorporated into operational forecasting systems to assure that the state-of-the-art products are reaching the forecast user community. The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX) has been formed to develop and demonstrate new hydrologic forecasting technologies, and to facilitate the implementation of beneficial technologies into the operational environment

Dose-escalation study of weekly irinotecan and daily carboplatin with concurrent thoracic radiotherapy for unresectable stage III non-small cell lung cancer

Dose-escalation study was performed to evaluate the maximum tolerated dose, recommended dose and toxicity profile of weekly irinotecan with daily carboplatin and concurrent thoracic radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer. Thirty-one previously untreated patients with unresectable stage III non-small-cell lung cancer were enrolled in this study. Patients received weekly irinotecan plus carboplatin (20 mg m−2 daily for 5 days a week) for 4 weeks and thoracic radiotherapy (60 Gy in 30 fractions). The irinotecan dose was escalated from 30 mg m−2 in increments of 10 mg m−2. Four irinotecan dose levels were given and 30 patients were assessable. Their median age was 62 years (range: 52–72 years), 28 had a performance status of 0–1 and two had a performance status of 2, 12 had stage IIIA disease and 18 had IIIB disease. There were 19 squamous cell carcinomas, 10 adenocarcinomas, and one large cell carcinoma. The dose-limiting toxicities were pneumonitis, esophagitis, thrombocytopenia and neutropenia. The maximum tolerated dose of irinotecan was 60 mg m−2, with two patients developing grade 4 pulmonary toxicity and one patient died of pneumonitis (grade 5). The recommended dose of irinotecan was 50 mg m−2. Other grade 3 or 4 toxicities were nausea and vomiting. Three patients achieved complete remission and 15 had partial remission, for an objective response rate of 60.0%. The median survival time was 14.9 months, and the 1- and 2-year survival rates were 51.6% and 34.2%, respectively. The study concluded that the major toxicity of this regimen was pneumonitis. This therapy may be active against unresectable non-small-cell lung cancer and a phase II study is warranted

Development and Internal Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting the Outcome of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy in Patients without Metastases on Restaging Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Owing to the greater use of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), patient selection for local salvage radiation therapy (sRT) has changed. Our objective was to determine the short-term efficacy of sRT in patients with BCR after RARP, and to develop a novel nomogram predicting BCR-free survival after sRT in a nationwide contemporary cohort of patients who underwent PSMA PET/CT before sRT for BCR of PCa, without evidence of metastatic disease.METHODS: All 302 eligible patients undergoing PCa sRT in four reference centers between September 2015 and August 2020 were included. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis using a backward elimination procedure to develop a nomogram for predicting biochemical progression of PCa, defined as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≥0.2 ng/ml above the post-sRT nadir within 1 yr after sRT.KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Biochemical progression of disease within 1 yr after sRT was observed for 56/302 (19%) of the study patients. The final predictive model included PSA at sRT initiation, pathological grade group, surgical margin status, PSA doubling time, presence of local recurrence on PSMA PET/CT, and the presence of biochemical persistence (first PSA result ≥0.1 ng/ml) after RARP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.64-0.79). Using our nomogram, patients with a predicted risk of &gt;20% had a 30.8% chance of developing biochemical progression within 1 yr after sRT.CONCLUSIONS: Our novel nomogram may facilitate better patient counseling regarding early oncological outcome after sRT. Patients with high risk of biochemical progression may be candidates for more extensive treatment.PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed a new tool for predicting cancer control outcomes of radiotherapy for patients with recurrence of prostate cancer after surgical removal of their prostate. This tool may help in better counseling of these patients with recurrent cancer regarding their early expected outcome after radiotherapy.</p

Development and Internal Validation of a Novel Nomogram Predicting the Outcome of Salvage Radiation Therapy for Biochemical Recurrence after Radical Prostatectomy in Patients without Metastases on Restaging Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Owing to the greater use of prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) of prostate cancer (PCa) after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), patient selection for local salvage radiation therapy (sRT) has changed. Our objective was to determine the short-term efficacy of sRT in patients with BCR after RARP, and to develop a novel nomogram predicting BCR-free survival after sRT in a nationwide contemporary cohort of patients who underwent PSMA PET/CT before sRT for BCR of PCa, without evidence of metastatic disease.METHODS: All 302 eligible patients undergoing PCa sRT in four reference centers between September 2015 and August 2020 were included. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analysis using a backward elimination procedure to develop a nomogram for predicting biochemical progression of PCa, defined as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≥0.2 ng/ml above the post-sRT nadir within 1 yr after sRT.KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS: Biochemical progression of disease within 1 yr after sRT was observed for 56/302 (19%) of the study patients. The final predictive model included PSA at sRT initiation, pathological grade group, surgical margin status, PSA doubling time, presence of local recurrence on PSMA PET/CT, and the presence of biochemical persistence (first PSA result ≥0.1 ng/ml) after RARP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.64-0.79). Using our nomogram, patients with a predicted risk of &gt;20% had a 30.8% chance of developing biochemical progression within 1 yr after sRT.CONCLUSIONS: Our novel nomogram may facilitate better patient counseling regarding early oncological outcome after sRT. Patients with high risk of biochemical progression may be candidates for more extensive treatment.PATIENT SUMMARY: We developed a new tool for predicting cancer control outcomes of radiotherapy for patients with recurrence of prostate cancer after surgical removal of their prostate. This tool may help in better counseling of these patients with recurrent cancer regarding their early expected outcome after radiotherapy.</p

Concurrent administration of Docetaxel and Stealth® liposomal doxorubicin with radiotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer : excellent tolerance using subcutaneous amifostine for cytoprotection

The substantial augmentation of the radiation sequelae during chemo–radiotherapy with novel drugs masks the real potential of such regimens. In this study we examined whether subcutaneous administration of amifostine can reduce the toxicity of a highly aggressive chemo–radiotherapy scheme with Stealth® liposomal doxorubicin (Caelyx®) and Docetaxel (Taxotere®) in non-small cell lung cancer. Twenty-five patients with stage IIIb non-small cell lung cancer were recruited in a phase I/II dose escalation trial. The starting dose of Taxotere® was 20 mg m−2 week and of Caelyx® was 15 mg m−2 every two weeks, during conventionally fractionated radiotherapy (total dose of 64 Gy). The dose of Taxotere®/Caelyx® was, thereafter, increased to 20/25 (five patients) and 30/25 mg m−2 (15 patients). Amifostine 500 mg was given subcutaneously before each radiotherapy fraction, while an i.v. amifostine dose of 1000 mg preceded the infusion of docetaxel. The ‘in-field’ radiation toxicity was low. Grade 3 esophagitis occurred in 9 out of 25 (36%) patients. Apart from a marked reduction of the lymphocyte counts, the regimen was deprived from any haematological toxicity higher than grade 1. No other systemic toxicity was noted. The CR and CR/PR rates in 15 patients treated at the highest dose level was 40% (6 out of 15) and 87% (13 out of 15) respectively. It is concluded that the subcutaneous administration of amifostine during high dose Taxotere®/Caelyx® chemo–radiotherapy is a simple and effective way to render this aggressive regimen perfectly well tolerated, by reducing the systemic and the ‘in-field’ toxicity to the levels expected from simple conventional radiotherapy. The impressive tolerance and the high CR rate obtained encourages the conduct of a relevant randomized trial to assess an eventual survival benefit in patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Prospective study of daily low-dose nedaplatin and continuous 5-fluorouracil infusion combined with radiation for the treatment of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Protracted low-dose concurrent chemotherapy combined with radiation has been proposed for enhanced treatment results for esophageal cancer. We evaluated the efficacy and the toxicity of a novel regimen of daily low-dose nedaplatin (cis-diammine-glycolatoplatinum) and continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) with radiation in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between January 2003 and June 2008, 33 patients with clinical stage I to IVB esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled. Nedaplatin (10 mg/body/day) was administered daily and 5-FU (500 mg/body/day) was administered continuously for 20 days. Fractionated radiotherapy for a total dose of 50.4-66 Gy was administered together with chemotherapy. Additional chemotherapy with nedaplatin and 5-FU was optionally performed for a maximum of 5 courses after chemoradiotherapy. The primary end-point of this study was to evaluate the tumor response, and the secondary end-points were to evaluate the toxicity and the overall survival.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-two patients (72.7%) completed the regimen of chemoradiotherapy. Twenty patients (60.6%) achieved a complete response, 10 patients (30.3%) a partial response. One patient (3.0%) had a stable disease, and 2 (6.1%) a progressive disease. The overall response rate was 90.9% (95% confidence interval: 75.7%-98.1%). For grade 3-4 toxicity, leukopenia was observed in 75.8% of the cases, thrombocytopenia in 24.2%, anemia in 9.1%, and esophagitis in 36.4%, while late grade 3-4 cardiac toxicity occurred in 6.1%. Additional chemotherapy was performed for 26 patients (78.8%) and the median number of courses was 3 (range, 1-5). The 1-, 2- and 3-year survival rates were 83.9%, 76.0% and 58.8%, respectively. The 1- and 2-year survival rates were 94.7% and 88.4% in patients with T1-3 M0 disease, and 66.2% and 55.2% in patients with T4/M1 disease.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The treatment used in our study may yield a high complete response rate and better survival for each stage of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00197444</p