Mitigating the effects of COVID-19 on HIV treatment and care in Lusaka, Zambia: A before-after cohort study using mixed effects regression

INTRODUCTION: The Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) issued COVID-19 mitigation guidance for HIV care immediately after the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Zambia on 18 March 2020. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia implemented MoH guidance by: 1) extending antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill duration to 6 multi-month dispensation (6MMD) and 2) task-shifting communication and mobilisation of those in HIV care to collect their next ART refill early. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 mitigation guidance on HIV care 3 months before and after guidance implementation. METHODS: We reviewed all ART pharmacy visit data in the national HIV medical record for PLHIV in care having ≥1 visit between 1 January-30 June 2020 at 59 HIV care facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. We undertook a before-after evaluation using mixed-effects Poisson regression to examine predictors and marginal probability of early clinic return (pharmacy visit \u3e7 days before next appointment), proportion of late visit (\u3e7 days late for next appointment) and probability of receiving a 6MMD ART refill. RESULTS: A total of 101 371 individuals (64% female, median age 39) with 130 486 pharmacy visits were included in the analysis. We observed a significant increase in the adjusted prevalence ratio (4.63; 95% CI 4.45 to 4.82) of early return before compared with after guidance implementation. Receipt of 6MMD increased from a weekly mean of 47.9% (95% CI 46.6% to 49.2%) before to 73.4% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.9%) after guidance implementation. The proportion of late visits (8-89 days late) was significantly higher before (18.8%, 95% CI17.2%to20.2%) compared with after (15.1%, 95% CI13.8%to16.4%) guidance implementation . CONCLUSIONS: Timely issuance and implementation of COVID-19 mitigation guidance involving task-shifted patient communication and mobilisation alongside 6MMD significantly increased early return to ART clinic, potentially reducing interruptions in HIV care during a global public health emergency

Estimating the real-world effects of expanding antiretroviral treatment eligibility: Evidence from a regression discontinuity analysis in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Although randomized trials have established the clinical efficacy of treating all persons living with HIV (PLWHs), expanding treatment eligibility in the real world may have additional behavioral effects (e.g., changes in retention) or lead to unintended consequences (e.g., crowding out sicker patients owing to increased patient volume). Using a regression discontinuity design, we sought to assess the effects of a previous change to Zambia's HIV treatment guidelines increasing the threshold for treatment eligibility from 350 to 500 cells/μL to anticipate effects of current global efforts to treat all PLWHs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve adults who newly enrolled in HIV care in a network of 64 clinics operated by the Zambian Ministry of Health and supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ). Patients were restricted to those enrolling in a narrow window around the April 1, 2014 change to Zambian HIV treatment guidelines that raised the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL (i.e., August 1, 2013, to November 1, 2014). Clinical and sociodemographic data were obtained from an electronic medical record system used in routine care. We used a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effects of this change in treatment eligibility on ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment, retention in care at 6 months (defined as clinic attendance between 3 and 9 months after enrollment), and a composite of both ART initiation by 3 months and retention in care at 6 months in all new enrollees. We also performed an instrumental variable (IV) analysis to quantify the effect of actually initiating ART because of this guideline change on retention. Overall, 34,857 ART-naïve patients (39.1% male, median age 34 years [IQR 28-41], median CD4 268 cells/μL [IQR 134-430]) newly enrolled in HIV care during this period; 23,036 were analyzed after excluding patients around the threshold to allow for clinic-to-clinic variations in actual guideline uptake. In all newly enrolling patients, expanding the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL was associated with a 13.6% absolute increase in ART initiation within 3 months of enrollment (95% CI, 11.1%-16.2%), a 4.1% absolute increase in retention at 6 months (95% CI, 1.6%-6.7%), and a 10.8% absolute increase in the percentage of patients who initiated ART by 3 months and were retained at six months (95% CI, 8.1%-13.5%). These effects were greatest in patients who would have become newly eligible for ART with the change in guidelines: a 43.7% increase in ART initiation by 3 months (95% CI, 37.5%-49.9%), 13.6% increase in retention at six months (95% CI, 7.3%-20.0%), and a 35.5% increase in the percentage of patients on ART at 3 months and still in care at 6 months [95% CI, 29.2%-41.9%). We did not observe decreases in ART initiation or retention in patients not directly targeted by the guideline change. An IV analysis found that initiating ART in response to the guideline change led to a 37.9% (95% CI, 28.8%-46.9%) absolute increase in retention in care. Limitations of this study include uncertain generalizability under newer models of care, lack of laboratory data (e.g., viral load), inability to account for earlier stages in the HIV care cascade (e.g., HIV testing and linkage), and potential for misclassification of eligibility status or outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, guidelines raising the CD4 threshold for treatment from 350 to 500 cells/μL were associated with a rapid rise in ART initiation as well as enhanced retention among newly treatment-eligible patients, without negatively impacting patients with lower CD4 levels. These data suggest that health systems in Zambia and other high-prevalence settings could substantially enhance engagement even among those with high CD4 levels (i.e., above 500 cells/μL) by expanding treatment without undermining existing care standards

Patient-reported reasons for declining same-day antiretroviral therapy initiation in routine HIV care settings in Lusaka, Zambia: results from a mixed-effects regression analysis

Introduction: In the current "test and treat" era, HIV programmes are increasingly focusing resources on linkage to care and same-day antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to meet UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets. After observing sub-optimal treatment indicators in health facilities supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ), we piloted a "linkage assessment" tool in facility-based HIV testing settings to uncover barriers to same-day linkage to care and ART initiation among newly identified people living with HIV (PLHIV) and to guide HIV programme quality improvement efforts. Methods: The one-page, structured linkage assessment tool was developed to capture patient-reported barriers to same-day linkage and ART initiation using three empirically supported categories of barriers: social, personal and structural. The tool was implemented in three health facilities, two urban and one rural, in Lusaka, Zambia from 1 November 2017 to 31 January 2018, and administered to all newly identified PLHIV declining same-day linkage and ART. Individuals selected as many reasons as relevant. We used mixed-effects logistic regression modelling to evaluate predictors of citing specific barriers to same-day linkage and ART, and Fisher's Exact tests to assess differences in barrier citation by socio-demographics and HIV testing entry point. Results: A total of 1278 people tested HIV positive, of whom 126 (9.9%) declined same-day linkage and ART, reporting a median of three barriers per respondent. Of these 126, 71.4% were female. Females declining same-day ART were younger, on average, (median 28.5 years, interquartile range (IQR): 21 to 37 years) than males (median 34.5 years, IQR: 26 to 44 years). The most commonly reported barrier category was structural, "clinics were too crowded" (n = 33), followed by a social reason, "friends and family will condemn me" (n = 30). The frequency of citing personal barriers differed significantly across HIV testing point (χ2 p = 0.03). Significant predictors for citing ≥1 barrier to same-day ART were >50 years of age (OR: 12.59, 95% CI: 6.00 to 26.41) and testing at a rural facility (OR: 9.92, 95% CI: 4.98 to 19.79). Conclusions: Given differences observed in barriers to same-day ART initiation reported across sex, age, testing point, and facility type, new, tailored counselling and linkage to care approaches are needed, which should be rigorously evaluated in routine programme settings

Mitigating the effects of COVID-19 on HIV treatment and care in Lusaka, Zambia: a before-after cohort study using mixed effects regression.

INTRODUCTION: The Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) issued COVID-19 mitigation guidance for HIV care immediately after the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Zambia on 18 March 2020. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia implemented MoH guidance by: 1) extending antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill duration to 6 multi-month dispensation (6MMD) and 2) task-shifting communication and mobilisation of those in HIV care to collect their next ART refill early. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 mitigation guidance on HIV care 3 months before and after guidance implementation. METHODS: We reviewed all ART pharmacy visit data in the national HIV medical record for PLHIV in care having ≥1 visit between 1 January-30 June 2020 at 59 HIV care facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. We undertook a before-after evaluation using mixed-effects Poisson regression to examine predictors and marginal probability of early clinic return (pharmacy visit >7 days before next appointment), proportion of late visit (>7 days late for next appointment) and probability of receiving a 6MMD ART refill. RESULTS: A total of 101 371 individuals (64% female, median age 39) with 130 486 pharmacy visits were included in the analysis. We observed a significant increase in the adjusted prevalence ratio (4.63; 95% CI 4.45 to 4.82) of early return before compared with after guidance implementation. Receipt of 6MMD increased from a weekly mean of 47.9% (95% CI 46.6% to 49.2%) before to 73.4% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.9%) after guidance implementation. The proportion of late visits (8-89 days late) was significantly higher before (18.8%, 95% CI17.2%to20.2%) compared with after (15.1%, 95% CI13.8%to16.4%) guidance implementation . CONCLUSIONS: Timely issuance and implementation of COVID-19 mitigation guidance involving task-shifted patient communication and mobilisation alongside 6MMD significantly increased early return to ART clinic, potentially reducing interruptions in HIV care during a global public health emergency

Results of regression discontinuity analysis on the effects of implementing new HIV treatment guidelines on ART initiation and loss to follow-up^*, <i>n</i> = 23,036.

<p>Results of regression discontinuity analysis on the effects of implementing new HIV treatment guidelines on ART initiation and loss to follow-up^{<a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002574#t002fn001" target="_blank">*</a>}, <i>n</i> = 23,036.</p

Baseline patient characteristics by guideline exposure and eligibility group, <i>n</i> = 34,857.

<p>Baseline patient characteristics by guideline exposure and eligibility group, <i>n</i> = 34,857.</p

Results of instrumental variable analysis on the effect of ART initiation on retention in care^*, <i>n</i> = 23,036.

<p>Results of instrumental variable analysis on the effect of ART initiation on retention in care^{<a href="http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002574#t003fn001" target="_blank">*</a>}, <i>n</i> = 23,036.</p

Multistate analysis of the longitudinal care experience of patients newly enrolling in care.

<p>Multistate analysis of the longitudinal care experience of patients newly enrolling in care.</p

Results from regression discontinuity analyses on the effects of expanding treatment eligibility to patients with CD4 between 350 and 500 cells/μL and pregnant/breastfeeding women on ART initiation at 3 months, retention in care at 6 months, and the percentage of patients in care and on ART at 6 months.

<p>Results from regression discontinuity analyses on the effects of expanding treatment eligibility to patients with CD4 between 350 and 500 cells/μL and pregnant/breastfeeding women on ART initiation at 3 months, retention in care at 6 months, and the percentage of patients in care and on ART at 6 months.</p

Patient flowchart.

<p>Patient flowchart.</p