Vulnerability and adaptation to climate extremes in the Americas (VACEA)

Farming communities are the first source of information on threats posed by climate change, and adaptations. The programme of the Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Extremes in the Americas (VACEA) aims to improve the understanding of the vulnerability of rural agricultural and indigenous communities to shifts in climate variability and to the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. As well, VACEA works to engage governance institutions in Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia in enhancing their adaptive capacity to reduce rural community vulnerability. Farmers in the VACEA network actively participate in adaptation initiatives

Summary Document

This summary is based on the following larger document: Sauchyn, Dave; Barrow, Elaine; Fang, X; Henderson, Norm; Johnston, Mark; Pomeroy, John; Thorpe, Jeff; Wheaton, Elaine; Williams, B. 2009. Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation, PARC, Regina, 162pp. The full report is viewable on the PARC website at www.parc.caSummary edited by Dave Sauchyn and Norm Henderson.PARC acknowledges the funding support of Saskatchewan Environment.Non-Peer ReviewedClimate change impacts in Saskatchewan are already evident and will become increasing significant over time. This report draws on the expertise of top climate change researchers and a large body of previous work to create a state-of-knowledge synthesis of key biophysical impacts and adaptation options specific to Saskatchewan. The focus is Saskatchewan’s ecosystems and water resources and the sectors of our economy, agriculture, and forestry, which are most dependent on these natural resources. The purpose of this report is to 1) document the expected impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan’s natural resources and dependent industries, and 2) outline options for adaptation of resource management practices, policies and infrastructure to minimize the risks associated with the impacts of climate change and to take advantage of opportunities provided by a warming climate

Summary Document

This summary is based on the following larger document: Sauchyn, Dave; Barrow, Elaine; Fang, X; Henderson, Norm; Johnston, Mark; Pomeroy, John; Thorpe, Jeff; Wheaton, Elaine; Williams, B. 2009. Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation, PARC, Regina, 162pp. The full report is viewable on the PARC website at www.parc.caSummary edited by Dave Sauchyn and Norm Henderson.PARC acknowledges the funding support of Saskatchewan Environment.Climate change impacts in Saskatchewan are already evident and will become increasing significant over time. This report draws on the expertise of top climate change researchers and a large body of previous work to create a state-of-knowledge synthesis of key biophysical impacts and adaptation options specific to Saskatchewan. The focus is Saskatchewan’s ecosystems and water resources and the sectors of our economy, agriculture, and forestry, which are most dependent on these natural resources. The purpose of this report is to 1) document the expected impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan’s natural resources and dependent industries, and 2) outline options for adaptation of resource management practices, policies and infrastructure to minimize the risks associated with the impacts of climate change and to take advantage of opportunities provided by a warming climate

1200 years of Upper Missouri River streamflow reconstructed from tree rings

Paleohydrologic records can provide unique, long-term perspectives on streamflow variability and hydroclimate for use in water resource planning. Such long-term records can also play a key role in placing both present day events and projected future conditions into a broader context than that offered by instrumental observations. However, relative to other major river basins across the western United States, a paucity of streamflow reconstructions has to date prevented the full application of such paleohydrologic information in the Upper Missouri River Basin. Here we utilize a set of naturalized streamflow records for the Upper Missouri and an expanded network of tree-ring records to reconstruct streamflow at thirty-one gaging locations across the major headwaters of the basin. The reconstructions explain an average of 68% of the variability in the observed streamflow records and extend available records of streamflow back to 886 CE on average. Basin-wide analyses suggest unprecedented hydroclimatic variability over the region during the Medieval period, similar to that observed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, and show considerable synchrony of persistent wet-dry phasing with the Colorado River over the last 1200 years. Streamflow estimates in individual sub-basins of the Upper Missouri demonstrate increased spatial variability in discharge during the Little Ice Age (similar to 1400-1850 CE) compared with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (similar to 800-1400 CE). The network of streamflow reconstructions presented here fills a major geographical void in paleohydrologic understanding and now allows for a long-term assessment of hydrological variability over the majority of the western U.S. Published by Elsevier Ltd.National Science Foundation (NSF) Paleo Perspectives on Climate Change (P2C2) Program [1404188, 1403957, 1401549]; NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP)National Science Foundation (NSF)NSF - Office of the Director (OD) [1049562]; Graduate Research Internship Program (GRIP); U.S. Bureau of Reclamation WaterSMART Program (Sustain and Manage America's Resources for Tomorrow); state of Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; U.S. Geological Survey Land Resources Mission Area; North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center24 month embargo; published online: 15 October 2019This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.SK acknowledges the support of the USDA-AFRI grant 2016-67003-24944; MEKE was supported by the National Science Foundation under award DBI-1802893. FB acknowledges statutory funds from the W. Szafer Institute of Botany PAS, as well as support from the project “Inside out” (#POIR.04.04.00-00-5F85/18-00) funded by the HOMING programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund.12 month embargo; first published: 20 May 2020This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Continental‐scale tree‐ring‐based projection of Douglas‐fir growth: Testing the limits of space‐for‐time substitution

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree‐ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space‐for‐time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed‐effects model to capture ring‐width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas‐fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi‐arid interior. Ring‐width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas‐fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed‐effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree‐ring networks and results as a calibration target for next‐generation vegetation models.SK acknowledges the support of the USDA-AFRI grant 2016-67003-24944; MEKE was supported by the National Science Foundation under award DBI-1802893. FB acknowledges statutory funds from the W. Szafer Institute of Botany PAS, as well as support from the project “Inside out” (#POIR.04.04.00-00-5F85/18-00) funded by the HOMING programme of the Foundation for Polish Science, co-financed by the European Union under the European Regional Development Fund.12 month embargo; first published: 20 May 2020This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]