Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time

Background Laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) of cutaneous blood flow is beginning to be used by burn surgeons to predict the healing time of burn wounds; predicted healing time is used to determine wound treatment as either dressings or surgery. In this paper, we do a statistical analysis of the performance of the technique. Methods We used data from a study carried out by five burn centers: LDI was done once between days 2 to 5 post burn, and healing was assessed at both 14 days and 21 days post burn. Random-effects ordinal logistic regression and other models such as the continuation ratio model were used to model healing-time as a function of the LDI data, and of demographic and wound history variables. Statistical methods were also used to study the false-color palette, which enables the laser-Doppler imager to be used by clinicians as a decision-support tool. Results Overall performance is that diagnoses are over 90% correct. Related questions addressed were what was the best blood flow summary statistic and whether, given the blood flow measurements, demographic and observational variables had any additional predictive power (age, sex, race, % total body surface area burned (%TBSA), site and cause of burn, day of LDI scan, burn center). It was found that mean laser-Doppler flux over a wound area was the best statistic, and that, given the same mean flux, women recover slightly more slowly than men. Further, the likely degradation in predictive performance on moving to a patient group with larger %TBSA than those in the data sample was studied, and shown to be small. Conclusion Modeling healing time is a complex statistical problem, with random effects due to multiple burn areas per individual, and censoring caused by patients missing hospital visits and undergoing surgery. This analysis applies state-of-the art statistical methods such as the bootstrap and permutation tests to a medical problem of topical interest. New medical findings are that age and %TBSA are not important predictors of healing time when the LDI results are known, whereas gender does influence recovery time, even when blood flow is controlled for. The conclusion regarding the palette is that an optimum three-color palette can be chosen 'automatically', but the optimum choice of a 5-color palette cannot be made solely by optimizing the percentage of correct diagnoses

Late-acting dominant lethal genetic systems and mosquito control

BACKGROUND: Reduction or elimination of vector populations will tend to reduce or eliminate transmission of vector-borne diseases. One potential method for environmentally-friendly, species-specific population control is the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT). SIT has not been widely used against insect disease vectors such as mosquitoes, in part because of various practical difficulties in rearing, sterilization and distribution. Additionally, vector populations with strong density-dependent effects will tend to be resistant to SIT-based control as the population-reducing effect of induced sterility will tend to be offset by reduced density-dependent mortality. RESULTS: We investigated by mathematical modeling the effect of manipulating the stage of development at which death occurs (lethal phase) in an SIT program against a density-dependence-limited insect population. We found late-acting lethality to be considerably more effective than early-acting lethality. No such strains of a vector insect have been described, so as a proof-of-principle we constructed a strain of the principal vector of the dengue and yellow fever viruses, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, with the necessary properties of dominant, repressible, highly penetrant, late-acting lethality. CONCLUSION: Conventional SIT induces early-acting (embryonic) lethality, but genetic methods potentially allow the lethal phase to be tailored to the program. For insects with strong density-dependence, we show that lethality after the density-dependent phase would be a considerable improvement over conventional methods. For density-dependent parameters estimated from field data for Aedes aegypti, the critical release ratio for population elimination is modeled to be 27% to 540% greater for early-acting rather than late-acting lethality. Our success in developing a mosquito strain with the key features that the modeling indicated were desirable demonstrates the feasibility of this approach for improved SIT for disease control

Resources for Teaching and Assessing the Vision and Change Biology Core Concepts

The Vision and Change report called for the biology community to mobilize around teaching the core concepts of biology. This essay describes a collection of resources developed by several different groups that can be used to respond to the report’s call to transform undergraduate education at both the individual course and departmental levels. First, we present two frameworks that help articulate the Vision and Change core concepts, the BioCore Guide and the Conceptual Elements (CE) Framework, which can be used in mapping the core concepts onto existing curricula and designing new curricula that teach the biology core concepts. Second, we describe how the BioCore Guide and the CE Framework can be used alongside the Partnership for Undergraduate Life Sciences Education curricular rubric as a way for departments to self-assess their teaching of the core concepts. Finally, we highlight three sets of instruments that can be used to directly assess student learning of the core concepts: the Biology Card Sorting Task, the Biology Core Concept Instruments, and the Biology—Measuring Achievement and Progression in Science instruments. Approaches to using these resources independently and synergistically are discussed

Diagnostic and prognostic performance and longitudinal changes in plasma neurofilament light chain concentrations in adults with Down syndrome: a cohort study

Background Adults with Down syndrome are at an ultra-high risk of Alzheimer's disease, but diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease in this population is challenging. We aimed to validate the clinical utility of plasma neurofilament light chain (NfL) for the diagnosis of symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in Down syndrome, assess its prognostic value, and establish longitudinal changes in adults with Down syndrome. Methods We did a multicentre cohort study, including adults with Down syndrome (>= 18 years), recruited from six hospitals and university medical centres in France, Germany, Spain, the UK, and the USA, who had been assessed, followed up, and provided at least two plasma samples. Participants were classified by local clinicians, who were masked to biomarker data, as asymptomatic (ie, no clinical suspicion of Alzheimer's disease), prodromal Alzheimer's disease, or Alzheimer's disease dementia. We classified individuals who progressed along the Alzheimer's disease continuum during follow-up as progressors. Plasma samples were analysed retrospectively;NfL concentrations were measured centrally using commercial kits for biomarker detection. We used ANOVA to evaluate differences in baseline NfL concentrations, Cox regression to study their prognostic value, and linear mixed models to estimate longitudinal changes. To account for potential confounders, we included age, sex, and intellectual disability as covariates in the analyses. Findings Between Aug 2, 2010, and July 16, 2019, we analysed 608 samples from 236 people with Down syndrome: 165 (70%) were asymptomatic, 32 (14%) had prodromal Alzheimer's disease, and 29 (12%) had Alzheimer's disease dementia;ten [4%] participants were excluded because their classification was uncertain. Mean follow-up was 3.6 years (SD 1.6, range 0.6-9.2). Baseline plasma NfL concentrations showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 (95% CI 0.76-0.91) in the prodromal group and 0.94 (0.90-0.97) in the dementia group for differentiating from participants who were asymptomatic. An increase of 1 pg/mL in baseline NfL concentrations was associated with a 1.04-fold risk of clinical progression (95% CI 1.01-1.07;p=0.0034). Plasma NfL concentrations showed an annual increase of 3.0% (95% CI 0.4-5.8) per year in the asymptomatic non-progressors group, 11.5% (4.9-18.5) per year in the asymptomatic progressors group, and 16.0% (8.4-24.0) per year in the prodromal Alzheimer's disease progressors group. In participants with Alzheimer's disease dementia, NfL concentrations increased by a mean of 24.3% (15.3-34.1). Interpretation Plasma NfL concentrations have excellent diagnostic and prognostic performance for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease in Down syndrome. The longitudinal trajectory of plasma NfL supports its use as a theragnostic marker in clinical trials. Copyright (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Tracking Virus-Specific CD4+ T Cells during and after Acute Hepatitis C Virus Infection

CD4+ T cell help is critical in maintaining antiviral immune responses and such help has been shown to be sustained in acute resolving hepatitis C. In contrast, in evolving chronic hepatitis C CD4+ T cell helper responses appear to be absent or short-lived, using functional assays. Here we used a novel HLA-DR1 tetramer containing a highly targeted CD4+ T cell epitope from the hepatitis C virus non-structural protein 4 to track number and phenotype of hepatitis C virus specific CD4+ T cells in a cohort of seven HLA-DR1 positive patients with acute hepatitis C in comparison to patients with chronic or resolved hepatitis C. We observed peptide-specific T cells in all seven patients with acute hepatitis C regardless of outcome at frequencies up to 0.65% of CD4+ T cells. Among patients who transiently controlled virus replication we observed loss of function, and/or physical deletion of tetramer+ CD4+ T cells before viral recrudescence. In some patients with chronic hepatitis C very low numbers of tetramer+ cells were detectable in peripheral blood, compared to robust responses detected in spontaneous resolvers. Importantly we did not observe escape mutations in this key CD4+ T cell epitope in patients with evolving chronic hepatitis C. During acute hepatitis C a CD4+ T cell response against this epitope is readily induced in most, if not all, HLA-DR1+ patients. This antiviral T cell population becomes functionally impaired or is deleted early in the course of disease in those where viremia persists

Analysis of the effects of exposure to acute hypoxia on oxidative lesions and tumour progression in a transgenic mouse breast cancer model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tumour hypoxia is known to be a poor prognostic indicator, predictive of increased risk of metastatic disease and reduced survival. Genomic instability has been proposed as one of the potential mechanisms for hypoxic tumour progression. Both of these features are commonly found in many cancer types, but their relationship and association with tumour progression has not been examined in the same model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To address this issue, we determined the effects of 6 week <it>in vivo </it>acute hypoxic exposure on the levels of mutagenic lipid peroxidation product, malondialdehyde, and 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2'-deoxyguanosine DNA (8-oxo-dG) lesions in the transgenic polyomavirus middle T (PyMT) breast cancer mouse model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed significantly increased plasma lipid peroxidation and 8-oxo-dG lesion levels in the hypoxia-exposed mice. Consumption of malondialdehyde also induced a significant increase in the PyMT tumour DNA lesion levels, however, these increases did not translate into enhanced tumour progression. We further showed that the <it>in vivo </it>exposure to acute hypoxia induced accumulation of F4/80 positive tumour-associated macrophages (TAMs), demonstrating a relationship between hypoxia and macrophages in an experimental model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data suggest that although exposure to acute hypoxia causes an increase in 8-oxo-dG lesions and TAMs in the PyMT tumours, these increases do not translate into significant changes in tumour progression at the primary or metastatic levels in this strong viral oncogene-driven breast cancer model.</p

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species. © 2019, The Author(s)

L'attaccamento va in tribunale: protezione e affidamento dei minori

In molti contesti professionali, compreso quello del Tribunale per i minorenni, si fa riferimento alla teoria dell’attaccamento e alla relativa ricerca, con fraintendimenti ampiamente diffusi che spesso si traducono in applicazioni scorrette. La finalità di questa dichiarazione di consenso è, pertanto, quella di migliorarne la comprensione, contrastare la disinformazione a riguardo e guidarne l’uso nel contesto del tribunale per i minorenni secondo una modalità basata sulle evidenze, considerando in particolare i processi decisionali circa la protezione e l’affidamento dei minori. L’articolo è diviso in due parti. Nella prima ci occupiamo dei problemi relativi all’utilizzo di teoria e ricerca sull’attaccamento nel contesto del Tribunale per i minorenni e ne discutiamo le ragioni. A questo proposito, esaminiamo le applicazioni della teoria che si ispirano al principio elettivo del superiore interesse del minore, discutiamo i fraintendimenti a riguardo e identifichiamo i fattori che ne hanno ostacolato un’accurata implementazione. Nella seconda parte, forniamo indicazioni per una sua adeguata e corretta applicazione. A tal fine, siamo partiti da tre principi di riferimento: il bisogno del bambino di caregiver familiari e non abusanti, il valore della continuità di cure sufficientemente buone e i benefici delle reti di relazioni di attaccamento. Discutiamo, inoltre, di quanto le valutazioni sulla qualità dell’attaccamento e sul comportamento di cura siano adeguate a ispirare i processi decisionali forensi rivolti ai minori. Concludiamo che la valutazione dei comportamenti di cura dovrebbe ricoprire un ruolo centrale. Nonostante non ci sia fra noi completo consenso riguardo all’utilizzo delle valutazioni sulla qualità dell’attaccamento nelle decisioni attinenti all’affidamento e alla protezione del minore, tali valutazioni si rivelano, al momento, le più adatte a individuare obiettivi e modalità degli interventi di sostegno. Infine, offriamo indicazioni per organizzare le future collaborazioni di ricerca interdisciplinare