Distributional and reproductive aspects of the bigeye thresher shark (Alopias superciliosus) in the Atlantic ocean

Captura asociada a la pesquería de palangre de superficie dirigida a pez espadaThe bigeye thresher shark, Alopias supercilious is sometimes caught as bycatch in pelagic longline fisheries targeting tunas and swordfish in the Atlantic Ocean. As part of an ongoing cooperative program for fisheries and biological data collection, fishery observer data from various fishing nations and projects were compiled and analyzed. Those data sets include information on geographic location of the observations, as well as size, sex and in some cases maturity stage. A total of 4371 bigeye threshers were recorded throughout the Atlantic Ocean between 1992 and 2013, with the sizes ranging from 70 to 305 cm FL (fork length). Considerable variability was observed in the catchat- size, with particular emphasis on the tropical region where the mean sizes tended to be smaller than in the other regions. The expected distribution of juvenile and adult specimens also showed considerable variability, and the sex-ratios varied between regions and size classes. Maturity ogives were fitted to data from 642 specimens, with the median sizes at maturity estimated at 208.6 cm FL (corresponding to 349.1 cm TL) for females and 159.2 cm FL (corresponding to 269.8 cm TL) for males. In addition, a segmented regression model (SRM) was used for males, and two breakpoints (Bk1: 122.5cm FL, Bk2: 173.3cm FL) estimated, identifying transitions between the three different maturity stages for male sharks (immature, maturing and mature). Only a few pregnant females were recorded, always with the presence of two embryos (one per uterus), and were distributed predominantly in the tropical northeast Atlantic closer the African continent, and in the southwest region, with those regions possibly serving as nursery areas for this species. These reproductive parameters, and especially the estimated median sizes at maturity and low fecundity, highlight the vulnerability of this species, reinforcing that the bigeye thresher tends to mature at a larger size than the other species of the Alopiidae family. The biological and distributional patterns presented can help managers adopt more informed and efficient conservation measures for this species.En prensa0,000

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Local indicators for global species: Pelagic sharks in the tropical northeast Atlantic, Cabo Verde islands region.

Pelagic sharks are an important bycatch in pelagic fisheries, especially for drifting longlines targeting swordfish. In the Cabo Verde Archipelago (tropical NE Atlantic), pelagic shark catches can reach a significant proportion of the total catches. Due to the increased concern on the status of pelagic shark species, this study was developed to enhance the current knowledge of those sharks in the Cabo Verde region in comparison to the adjacent areas, especially associated with European Union (EU) pelagic longline fishing activity. Stock status indicators for the two main species, blue shark (Prionace glauca) and shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), were developed, based on fisheries data from logbooks and onboard scientific observers, including analysis of size frequency distributions and standardized catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) indexes over time. The standardized CPUEs have been stable or increasing for both species in the past 10 years, indicating no signs of local depletion. In terms of sizes, the blue shark catch is composed mainly of adults, which can be a sign of a stable population. On the contrary, the catch of shortfin mako is composed mainly of juveniles, which in conjunction of a decrease of mean size might be a cause of concern, highlighting possible overfishing on the species in the region. Thirty satellite tags, 25 archival miniPATs and 5 SPOT GPS, were deployed in the Cabo Verde Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), showing that those species are highly mobile. The biomass and size distributions were modeled with spatial and seasonal models (GAMs) identifying locations where juveniles are predominantly concentrated and that should be prioritized for conservation. This work presents new information on the status of pelagic sharks in the Cabo Verde region in the context of those highly migratory species, and can now be used to promote more sustainable fisheries in the region

Distribution pattern of the blue shark (Prionace glauca) in the Atlantic Ocean from observer data of the major fishing fleets

The blue shark is the most captured shark in pelagic longline fisheries targeting tunas and swordfish. As part of an ongoing cooperative program for fisheries and biological data collection , information collected by fishery observers and scientific Project from several fishing nations in the Atlantic (EU.Spain, EU.Portugal, Uruguay, Taiwán, USA, Japan, Brasil, Venezuela and South Africa) were analyzed. Datasets include information on geographic location, size and sex. A total of 414428 blue sharks records collected between 1992 and 2014 were compiled, with the sizes ranging from 36 to 394 cm FL (fork length). Considerable variability was observed in the size distribution by región and season, with larger sizes tending to ocsur in equatorial and tropical regions and smaller sizes in higher latitudes. The expected distribution of juvenile and adult specimens also showed considerable variability, and the sex ratios varied between regions and sizes classes. The distributional patterns presented in this study provide a better understanding of different aspects of this species in the Atlantic that can help to promote more informed managemente and conservation measures.En prensa0,000

Spatial dynamics and mixing of bluefin tuna in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea revealed using next generation sequencing

The Atlantic bluefin tuna is a highly migratory species emblematic of the challenges associated with shared fisheries management. In an effort to resolve the species’ stock dynamics, a genomewide search for spatially informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was undertaken, by way of sequencing reduced representation libraries. An allele frequency approach to SNP discovery was used, combining the data of 555 larvae and young-of-the-year (LYOY) into pools representing major geographical areas and mapping against a newly assembled genomic reference. From a set of 184,895 candidate loci, 384 were selected for validation using 167 LYOY. A highly discriminatory genotyping panel of 95 SNPs was ultimately developed by selecting loci with the most pronounced differences between western Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea LYOY. The panel was evaluated by genotyping a different set of LYOY (n = 326), and from these, 77.8% and 82.1% were correctly assigned to western Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea origins, respectively. The panel revealed temporally persistent differentiation among LYOY from the western Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea (FST = 0.008, p = .034). The composition of six mixed feeding aggregations in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea was characterized using genotypes from medium (n = 184) and large (n = 48) adults, applying population assignment and mixture analyses. The results provide evidence of persistent population structuring across broad geographic areas and extensive mixing in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of St. Lawrence. The genomic reference and genotyping tools presented here constitute novel resources useful for future research and conservation efforts

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9–11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3–13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7–17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9–8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1–14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1–14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9–29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien\u2013Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9\ub72 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4\u20137) and 7 (6\u20138) days respectively (P < 0\ub7001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6\ub76 versus 8\ub70 per cent; P = 0\ub7499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0\ub790, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub755 to 1\ub746; P = 0\ub7659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34\ub77 versus 39\ub75 per cent; major 3\ub73 versus 3\ub74 per cent; P = 0\ub7110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients